War Fears Cloud Iraq’s Drive to Bring Arms Under State Control

Members of Asaib Ahl al-Haq take part in a Quds Day march in Baghdad on July 1, 2016. (AP)
Members of Asaib Ahl al-Haq take part in a Quds Day march in Baghdad on July 1, 2016. (AP)
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War Fears Cloud Iraq’s Drive to Bring Arms Under State Control

Members of Asaib Ahl al-Haq take part in a Quds Day march in Baghdad on July 1, 2016. (AP)
Members of Asaib Ahl al-Haq take part in a Quds Day march in Baghdad on July 1, 2016. (AP)

The issue of weapons outside state control has returned to the center of Iraq’s political and security scene after Akram al-Kaabi, secretary-general of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, rejected any understandings with what he called “international forces backing Israel” and reaffirmed his movement’s commitment to “force and weapons.”

His comments came as the Iraqi government presses on with efforts to confine arms to the state, despite complex political and military challenges.

Kaabi’s remarks were made in a statement issued on Tuesday after recent regional developments and the military escalation between Iran and Israel.

He praised Iran’s missile strike against Israel earlier this week, calling it “discipline for the Zionist entity,” and commended Yemen’s Houthis for also firing at Israel, saying they delivered “a surprise slap to the enemy.”

Nujaba is an Iran-aligned Iraqi armed faction and one of the main pillars of an alliance of factions calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which became directly involved in regional escalation after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.

Iraqi sources had said the government contacted leaders of armed factions to prevent them from joining the latest escalation, drawing on support from several factions for its plan to confine weapons to the state.

Kaabi said his movement was warning “anyone who imagines that Iraq can reach understandings with the supporters of” Israel and the United States.

“The logic of force and weapons” was the only option in dealing with them and that the movement “will never deviate from it,” he vowed.

The remarks come as debate grows in Iraq over the future of armed factions and whether all armed formations can be brought under state authority, now one of the most main issues tackled by Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi's government.

The government has repeatedly said it is committed to the rule of law and to confining weapons to official institutions.

Influential cleric Moqtada al-Sadr announced on May 27 the integration of his military wing, Saraya al-Salam, into the state and called on the Popular Mobilization Forces factions to hand over their weapons. Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib al-Imam Ali later also announced their separation from the PMF.

Split over mechanism

Figures close to armed factions rejected proposals to hand over weapons, saying they were driven by external pressure.

Abdul al-Rahman al-Jazairi, a leader in the PMF, said in remarks carried by local media that “the decision to confine weapons is not an individual decision,” calling for legislative authority to have a say over the “fateful” matter.

The remarks reflect the split over how to handle the armed factions file, which has grown more complicated after years in which armed groups expanded their influence, built military arsenals and secured independent funding sources.

Shakhawan Abdullah, head of the Kurdistan Democratic Party bloc, cited further obstacles to any disarmament plan, saying some weapons held by factions are not directly under their control.

He said one problem was that some factions “may decide to hand over their weapons, but the weapons originally belong to a regional state that considers them its property.” He added that those states may refuse to surrender such weapons, including drones.

Abdullah said some groups could transfer weapons to other formations rather than hand them over to the state. He said about 30% of armed groups fall under the PMF, while the rest are outside its framework.

Observers say the weapons file is not only a security issue. It also intersects with the economic and political interests of armed factions that have built networks of influence and their own financial institutions in recent years, making disarmament more complicated than legislation or government decisions.

Analysts say weapons for many factions are not only a military tool, but also a guarantee of political influence and a source of economic protection. That makes any response to calls for surrendering them limited unless they are paired with broader political and security arrangements.



UN Chief Warns Cash Crunch Threatens Palestinian Refugee Agency

Displaced Palestinians gather to receive hot meals distributed by a charity kitchen in the Khan Younis refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip on June 29, 2026. (AFP)
Displaced Palestinians gather to receive hot meals distributed by a charity kitchen in the Khan Younis refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip on June 29, 2026. (AFP)
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UN Chief Warns Cash Crunch Threatens Palestinian Refugee Agency

Displaced Palestinians gather to receive hot meals distributed by a charity kitchen in the Khan Younis refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip on June 29, 2026. (AFP)
Displaced Palestinians gather to receive hot meals distributed by a charity kitchen in the Khan Younis refugee camp in the southern Gaza Strip on June 29, 2026. (AFP)

UN chief Antonio Guterres warned Tuesday of the "increasingly precarious" situation of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees known as UNRWA, saying that millions of people's livelihoods were at risk.

The secretary-general said that further funding cuts for UNRWA -- which Israel has criticized as politically biased -- could "push conditions beyond breaking point."

Because of insufficient funding, UNRWA has scaled back its operations since the start of the year.

"As we meet here today, the safety and welfare of millions of Palestine refugees hangs in the balance," Guterres told a donor conference for the UN agency.

He noted the "utterly appalling" living conditions in Gaza, violence by Israeli settlers in the West Bank and Israeli strikes on Lebanon.

"It [UNRWA] faces sweeping restrictions throughout the Occupied Palestinian Territory. And a cash shortfall that imperils its work across the region," Guterres said.

"I am appalled by continuing efforts to marginalize and undermine UNRWA through disinformation, smear campaigns, legislative actions, operational restrictions, diplomatic roadblocks and more," he said.

Israel has long opposed UNRWA, created by the UN General Assembly in 1949, and intensified its criticism after October 7, alleging that employees participated in the deadly 2023 attack on Israel.


Hundreds of Thousands of Lebanese Head Home as Fighting Eases, Many Still Stranded

Lebanese people drive a vehicle loaded with mattresses as they return to their village in the town of Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, 23 June 2026, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (EPA)
Lebanese people drive a vehicle loaded with mattresses as they return to their village in the town of Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, 23 June 2026, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (EPA)
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Hundreds of Thousands of Lebanese Head Home as Fighting Eases, Many Still Stranded

Lebanese people drive a vehicle loaded with mattresses as they return to their village in the town of Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, 23 June 2026, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (EPA)
Lebanese people drive a vehicle loaded with mattresses as they return to their village in the town of Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, 23 June 2026, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. (EPA)

Some 400,000 Lebanese uprooted by war have returned to southern Lebanon, with more expected to follow in the coming week, a government minister said on Tuesday, encouraged by a lull in the four-month-long conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

Yet many remain unable to go back. Since March, around 1 million people have been forced to flee their homes, and large numbers are still in shelters or temporary housing because their homes are destroyed or uninhabitable, said Hanine ‌El Sayed, Minister of Social Affairs.

Roughly 40% ‌of those displaced have now returned to their towns ‌and ⁠villages. The number ⁠of people staying in collective shelters has fallen sharply, to about 13,000 from 37,000, she said.

While some shelters will remain open for families who cannot return, aid programs — including emergency cash support — will continue. The number of shelters has dropped from 692 at the height of the crisis to 479, with additional centers opened in Nabatieh for those wanting to stay near their home ⁠areas.

El Sayed said the headline figures conceal a ‌gap between those able to return and ‌those still displaced.

"These are families that are able to return to something, at least ‌the basic minimum," she told Reuters. "The fact that the others have ‌not returned means they have a much harder situation."

Authorities expect further returns in the coming days and hope within about a week to better gauge how many families cannot go back at all.

"In about a week's time ... we would really know ‌the size of the problem - how many absolutely cannot return because their homes have been totally damaged," she said.

CHALLENGES ⁠OF GOING ⁠HOME

For many, returning home does not mean a return to normal life. Families are often finding damaged houses, scarce electricity and water, and destroyed businesses and livelihoods, as the government works to restore basic services and expand cash assistance, rental support and employment programs.

Yet despite these hardships, many are choosing to return.

"Many of the people of the south are very attached to their land and they want to rightfully make a claim back to it," El Sayed said.

The government estimates Lebanon will need billions of dollars to rebuild damaged homes and infrastructure, funding that it does not currently have, El Sayed said.

Nearly 90,000 housing units have been totally or partially destroyed in the latest conflict, adding to widespread damage from earlier fighting.


Aoun Optimistic on ‘Best Possible’ Deal for Lebanon, Banks on US Role

In this photo, released by the Lebanese Presidency press office, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, right, shakes hands with Adm. Brad Cooper, the top US military commander in the Middle East, at the presidential place in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, June 29, 2026. (Lebanese Presidency press office via AP)
In this photo, released by the Lebanese Presidency press office, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, right, shakes hands with Adm. Brad Cooper, the top US military commander in the Middle East, at the presidential place in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, June 29, 2026. (Lebanese Presidency press office via AP)
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Aoun Optimistic on ‘Best Possible’ Deal for Lebanon, Banks on US Role

In this photo, released by the Lebanese Presidency press office, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, right, shakes hands with Adm. Brad Cooper, the top US military commander in the Middle East, at the presidential place in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, June 29, 2026. (Lebanese Presidency press office via AP)
In this photo, released by the Lebanese Presidency press office, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, right, shakes hands with Adm. Brad Cooper, the top US military commander in the Middle East, at the presidential place in Baabda, east of Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, June 29, 2026. (Lebanese Presidency press office via AP)

In one phrase, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun answers critics of the framework agreement Lebanon and Israel signed late last week, an agreement he admits is “not ideal”, “Give me the alternative.”

For more than three years, Lebanon has been reeling from the fallout of Hezbollah’s successive “support” wars, first for Gaza in late 2023 and then for Iran on March 2 in wake of the war with the United States and Israel. Still, visitors to Aoun come away with a clear impression that the president is optimistic about the path opened by the agreement.

A senior Lebanese source said the reality created by those wars has added to Lebanon’s burden. Beirut had been negotiating over Israel’s withdrawal from five hills it occupied in the first round.

It then found itself negotiating under fire and occupation, as Israel’s presence expanded to the outskirts of Nabatieh in the east and Tyre on the coast, seizing Bint Jbeil in between.

The source placed direct responsibility for the war on Hezbollah. “Had it not been for its six rockets, which it fired last March, we would not be in this position today,” the source said.

The agreement is the result of facts imposed by the battlefield and by Lebanon’s condition as it buckles under rising human and material losses, with no clear path to a solution, it added.

A framework, not yet an agreement

Still, the source insisted the agreement “is not bad. More precisely, it has not become an agreement yet. It is a framework agreement that sets broad guidelines, pending the fine details that will be negotiated gradually.”

Lebanon is betting on the new US momentum to press Israel into making concessions on those details, it continued.

The clearest sign that the agreement is not bad, according to the source, “was Israel’s fierce rejection of it at first. That rejection would not have turned into approval without the major US pressure applied in the final hours before signing.”

The second sign was how quickly Israeli leaders moved to craft their own version of the agreement, “which has nothing to do with the truth,” the source said.

“Ninety percent of what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said is not true,” it stressed.

An Israeli military vehicle maneuvers on the Lebanese side of the Israel-Lebanon border, as seen from the Upper Galilee, 28 June 2026, amid an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. (EPA)

US support

Lebanon sees clear US support as its best weapon against Israel’s lack of interest in a solution and its tilt toward constant escalation.

The strongest proof, Lebanese officials believe, is that US President Donald Trump has called Aoun twice so far. Both calls were highly positive, as were calls from other US officials who contacted Aoun more than once, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who remained in continuous contact with him.

The source asked: Can Lebanon afford to risk losing US support when everyone knows the Americans are the only party able to exert real pressure on Israel?

The source said Trump, in his latest call with Aoun, was very clear in adopting Lebanon’s demands for a full Israeli withdrawal “despite the disruptions.”

Trump also expressed readiness to help revive Lebanon and put it back on track. That track includes the return of displaced people, reconstruction, and extending state authority through its own forces across all Lebanese territory, a Lebanese demand above anyone else’s.

The Doha cell and a Hezbollah representative

The Americans are closely tracking developments in Lebanon.

Although Washington is separating what is being agreed on in the Pakistan with Iran track from the Lebanese-Israeli track, it is working in parallel on the Lebanese file. That includes setting up the cell provided for in the US-Iranian understanding to monitor the ceasefire in Lebanon.

The source said the committee would operate from a liaison point in the Qatari capital, Doha. It would include representatives of the United States, Lebanon, Qatar and Iran, as well as Hezbollah, likely the group’s representative in Tehran.

A satellite image shows the village of Froun in Lebanon, June 24, 2026. (Pléiades Neo © Airbus DS 2026/Handout via Reuters)

Ali al-Taher

When practical negotiations over the withdrawal began, Aoun proposed starting with an Israeli pullback from Kfar Tibnit and the historic Beaufort Castle, the last point reached by Israeli forces in their advance. The aim was to push Israeli forces away from Nabatieh after they had reached the city’s outskirts.

But the proposal collided with Israel’s determination to reach the Ali al-Taher heights, believed to contain a massive underground Hezbollah military facility.

Aoun called Rubio and proposed that the Lebanese army enter the area, while the Israeli army would withdraw beyond the Litani River. Rubio contacted the Israelis. Aoun, through intermediaries, contacted Hezbollah.

Israel approved the proposal. Hezbollah gave two contradictory answers. The first allowed the army to deploy without entering the facility. The second rejected the idea completely.

Later, Hezbollah settled on one answer: the matter was absolutely unacceptable. The proposal collapsed.

The area’s importance goes beyond Hezbollah’s facility. If Israeli forces position themselves there, they would directly overlook Nabatieh. From the other side, the heights overlook Israeli settlements, especially Metula, just a few kilometers from Nabatieh.

The idea of a withdrawal from that area was shelved. Instead, the focus shifted to another pullback from Zawtar al-Gharbieh and to the launch of a “pilot zone” there and the towns of Froun and Ghandourieh in the central sector.

That was the middle-ground solution. A withdrawal from the coastal line falls under the same equation because of its proximity to the southern border and, therefore, its high sensitivity for Israel.