Oil Prices Sink Further as Trump Signs Deal to Reopen Hormuz

(FILES) This aerial view shows the fuel depot of Aral at the Ruhr Oel petroleum refineries of BP Gelsenkirchen GmbH in Gelsenkirchen, western Germany on March 9, 2026. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP)
(FILES) This aerial view shows the fuel depot of Aral at the Ruhr Oel petroleum refineries of BP Gelsenkirchen GmbH in Gelsenkirchen, western Germany on March 9, 2026. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP)
TT

Oil Prices Sink Further as Trump Signs Deal to Reopen Hormuz

(FILES) This aerial view shows the fuel depot of Aral at the Ruhr Oel petroleum refineries of BP Gelsenkirchen GmbH in Gelsenkirchen, western Germany on March 9, 2026. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP)
(FILES) This aerial view shows the fuel depot of Aral at the Ruhr Oel petroleum refineries of BP Gelsenkirchen GmbH in Gelsenkirchen, western Germany on March 9, 2026. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP)

Oil prices tumbled again Thursday after US President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart signed off on a deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The news boosted optimism for a lasting peace between the two nations after more than three months of war that has rattled energy markets and fueled a fresh spike in inflation.

However, the upbeat mood on trading floors was tempered by expectations the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates before year's end, after its new boss held his first policy meeting and acknowledged "persistently high prices are a burden for the American people", reported AFP.

Trump put his signature to the memorandum of understanding in Versailles after a G7 summit, telling reporters: "Just signed it."

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, quoted by state news agency IRNA, said the document "was finalized with the signatures of the presidents".

All eyes are now on the strait, through which a fifth of world oil normally passes and which Tehran effectively closed after the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28.

"As a first step, Islamic Republic of Iran will instantly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the United States of America will immediately lift the naval blockade," Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose officials mediated the agreement, said on X.

The deal will see Washington commit to immediately waive oil sanctions and facilitate the release of a $300 billion reconstruction fund, while Tehran agrees to dilute its enriched uranium as talks on a longer-term agreement are held.

Crude fell more than three percent Thursday, extending the losses sustained since news broke at the weekend. Both main contracts have plummeted more than 15 percent since last week, when talk of an agreement began swirling.

"A signed MOU and a faster path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz should pull some of the panic premium out of crude," wrote Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.

"That matters because oil was not just trading war risk. It was trading the possibility that reserve drawdowns and blocked Gulf flows would create an energy cliff."

Equities were mixed as they struggled to maintain the positive momentum seen this week.

Seoul was again at the forefront of the gains, ploughing past 9,000 points for the first time thanks to another surge in chip titans Samsung and SK hynix as the AI boom continues apace.

"South Korea supplies around 80 percent of the world's memory chips, and artificial intelligence is expected to continue growing for at least another decade," Kim Dae-jong, a professor at Sejong University, told AFP.

"Semiconductors account for roughly half of South Korea's industrial output, and this is seen as the biggest reason why Kospi broke through the 9,000-point mark."

Tokyo, Singapore, Taipei, Mumbai and Manila also rose but Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Wellington, Bangkok and Jakarta fell along with London. Paris was flat while Frankfurt rose.

The mixed performance followed the Fed's latest policy meeting that saw it hold rates as expected but indicate it could hike in the next six months.

The gathering was the first for new boss Kevin Warsh, who flagged the fact that inflation has been well above the bank's two percent target for years but vowed to "deliver price stability".

"Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue," he said after the meeting at which he also wanted wide-ranging reforms at the bank.

Warsh was appointed by Trump, who has launched an unprecedented assault on the Fed's independence and called previous boss Jerome Powell incompetent for not cutting rates enough.

Analysts pointed out that the Fed's post-meeting statement did not make mention of an easing bias, as it had done previously.

The fact there was more emphasis on prices rather than jobs was also noted.

Data this month has shown inflation at a three-year high, while the labor market remains healthy.

"While there is no suggestion the Fed's dual mandate has shifted away from unemployment as well as price stability, markets have been left with a view (that) the emphasis appears to have shifted to the latter for now," wrote National Australia Bank's Gavin Friend.



Hormuz Reopening to Release Wave of Oil Supply, Depress Prices

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, June 17, 2026. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/via WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, June 17, 2026. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/via WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
TT

Hormuz Reopening to Release Wave of Oil Supply, Depress Prices

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, June 17, 2026. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/via WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, June 17, 2026. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/via WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS

Middle Eastern crude oil markets could come under further pressure if the Strait of Hormuz reopens on Friday following the US-Iran interim deal, releasing millions of barrels of oil stranded in the Middle East Gulf into global markets, industry executives said.

The wave of supply comes after Gulf producers ramped up exports via ship-to-ship transfers off the United Arab Emirates and Oman this month, which depressed spot differentials for Middle East crude to discounts on Tuesday.

Kpler analyst Muyu Xu said in a June 17 note that the reopening of the Hormuz Strait could unleash some 93 million barrels of stranded non-Iranian barrels from the Arabian Gulf, while producers are expected to continue supplying cargoes through less visible channels.

Some traders estimated that about 50 million barrels are set to be released as some cargoes had already been shipped out. In addition, the lifting of US restrictions on Iranian crude could also release some 72 million barrels stranded on tankers west of Chabahar, with volumes set to rise further if Washington grants broader sanctions relief, ‌Kpler said.

Iran's fleet has ‌been gearing up to boost exports with three of its tankers this week exiting the ‌strait, ⁠which carried about ⁠a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.

US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian digitally signed the 14-point agreement to end the war on Wednesday, US and Iran officials said. Iran's foreign ministry said the agreement was already in effect.

ASIAN BUYERS COMMITTED TO SUPPLY ARRIVING JUNE TO AUGUST

While supply is set to surge, most Asian refiners have already booked crude cargoes to arrive in June to August and several refineries in China are scheduled to shut for maintenance, refining and trade sources said, reducing demand for immediate supplies.

Consultancy Energy Aspects tracked more than 1.8 million bpd of Chinese refining capacity that will be shut for turnarounds in July, including ⁠nearly 1.2 million bpd at private firms.

China's throughput, already at a near four-year low in ‌May, is expected to slide further to about 12.4 million bpd this month, before recovering ‌above 13 million bpd in July with state-owned refiners raising runs, it added.

Many Chinese refiners paused spot buying this week as they eyed the reopening ‌of the strait and details of the agreement.

Although weaker crude prices improved refinery economics and narrowed losses, fuel demand in China ‌is expected to stay subdued as a result of the country's rapid adoption of electric vehicles.

"A large-scale increase in crude buying appears unlikely unless Beijing relaxes restrictions on product exports and/or proceeds with another round of strategic petroleum reserves replenishment," said Kpler's Xu.

Some Middle Eastern crude suppliers offered cargoes to independent refiners in eastern Shandong province, two sources said, but at prices higher than sanctioned oil from Iran and Russia.

Crude sellers will need to cut prices further to attract ‌demand once the strait opens, given that some of them, including TotalEnergies, still have unsold cargoes, said one Singapore-based trader. The sources declined to be named as they were not authorized to speak ⁠to the media.

"Refiners are expecting profitability ⁠to be quite poor in the second half of the year," a South Korean industry official said.

"So rather than it being a matter of securing a specific crude, this is becoming a fight over economics," he added.

ASIA OIL DEMAND SHIFTING BACK TO MIDEAST

Still, refiners are preparing for the eventual rise in Middle Eastern supply, which is expected to cool Asia's demand for oil from the Americas. Taiwanese state refiner CPC said it was ready to import heavier grades with a higher sulphur content, to produce more bitumen and sulphur to meet domestic demand if the strait reopens. Some Middle Eastern oil producers have asked Indian refiners to consider buying the committed supplies under their term deals, which would reduce their purchase of oil via spot tenders, sources at three refiners said.

Kpler expects a gradual recovery in Indian demand for Gulf oil to potentially support an additional 400,000 bpd to 600,000 bpd of Middle Eastern imports through August as refiners rebalance their crude slate.

"Increased supply of Middle Eastern crude oil would deepen contango in regional oil benchmarks," an Asian trader said.

Benchmark Dubai's premium to swaps returned to positive territory on Wednesday after slipping into a discount of 46 cents on Tuesday, Reuters' data showed.

In a contango market, prompt prices are lower than those in future months indicating comfortable supplies.


Three Saudi-Flagged Vessels Transit Strait of Hormuz after Washington-Tehran Agreement

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, June 17, 2026. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/via WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, June 17, 2026. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/via WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
TT

Three Saudi-Flagged Vessels Transit Strait of Hormuz after Washington-Tehran Agreement

Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, June 17, 2026. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/via WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS
Vessels in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, June 17, 2026. Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/via WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS

Three Saudi-flagged supertankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, according to ship-tracking data, just hours after US President Donald Trump signed a temporary agreement with Iran aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the vital shipping route.

According to a Reuters analysis of maritime traffic data, the three vessels were carrying a combined 6 million barrels of crude oil. The tankers departed from Saudi ports on the Arabian Gulf, marking the largest commercial oil shipment to pass through the strait in weeks.

In recent months, Saudi Arabia had relied primarily on its Red Sea export terminal at Yanbu to ship crude to global markets, adopting the route as a strategic alternative to avoid risks stemming from the conflict that erupted on Feb. 28 and disrupted the flow of hundreds of millions of barrels of oil from Gulf producers through the Strait of Hormuz.

The transit of the Saudi tankers is seen as a strong indication that operations along the waterway are beginning to normalize and that the geopolitical risks that have threatened global energy security in recent months may be easing.


EU Wrestles over How to Tackle China Export Flood

There is a growing consensus in the European Union that it is too dependent on China. Nicolas TUCAT / AFP/File
There is a growing consensus in the European Union that it is too dependent on China. Nicolas TUCAT / AFP/File
TT

EU Wrestles over How to Tackle China Export Flood

There is a growing consensus in the European Union that it is too dependent on China. Nicolas TUCAT / AFP/File
There is a growing consensus in the European Union that it is too dependent on China. Nicolas TUCAT / AFP/File

EU leaders will grapple on Thursday over whether the bloc needs new beefed-up trade defenses to curb the surge of Chinese exports deemed an existential threat to European industry and jobs by Brussels.

There is a growing consensus in the European Union that it is too dependent on China, and Brussels fears this makes it vulnerable to potential coercion and supply shocks, AFP said.

The bloc's trade deficit in goods hit around 360 billion euros ($417 billion) last year, meaning Chinese exports sharply exceeded the EU's.

"Our trading relationship with China has reached a point that requires a reset. Not confrontation, but rebalancing," EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said.

While EU capitals agree on a common diagnosis on China, the positions differ on the cure.

One way to beef up the EU's arsenal could be creating a new tool to impose sector-specific tariffs such as chemicals or green tech -- taking a page out of President Donald Trump's playbook.

French President Emmanuel Macron last month called for a "European equivalent of Section 301" -- the trade tool Trump has employed to set sweeping tariffs -- arguing Europe's "sovereignty is at stake".

Germany has until now adopted a cautious posture because its economy is more exposed to potential retaliation, while Spain has sought to avoid tensions as it chases Chinese investment.

But Berlin appeared to be coming around to France's way of thinking.

A German official said Berlin was "open" to new tools if they are necessary so long as they were "not targeted at specific recipients".

Concern about Chinese dominance is not limited to the EU.

Fears are rising in the West over Beijing's control in the market for rare earth minerals used in everyday electronic appliances, and China was on the menu during talks between G7 leaders in France this week.

The real wake-up call came last year when China imposed export controls on rare earths, sending shockwaves across supply chains globally.

- China's massive subsidies -

Brussels often evokes the need for fair competition, pointing to the unfair advantage Chinese companies have because of massive state subsidies.

Between 2005 and 2024, Chinese firms received around three to eight times more government support than firms in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, according to the OECD, which called it "a conservative estimate".

Over dinner, the leaders will chew over what current tools the EU can use to address the imbalance and whether there should be new instruments and actions, which the European Commission has stridently pushed for.

The discussion will reveal just how far the EU will go to protect its industries, with leaders due to guide the commission on its next steps.

"There may be a member state or two who are more cautious," an EU diplomat said, but he said the majority see "the situation the same way".

"We have to be ready to do more," he said.

The commission, in charge of EU trade policy, is also mulling whether to introduce safeguard measures for the chemicals industry, like it did for steel.

- EU appetite for a fight? -

Even as its resolve appears to be hardening, the EU has showed no appetite to trigger a broader trade war with China.

Fears over Chinese retaliation are not unfounded.

After the EU hit Chinese electric cars with higher tariffs in 2024, China imposed anti-dumping duties on European cognac.

And Beijing has vowed to retaliate if the EU pushes through rules that would exclude certain products manufactured outside the bloc from public contracts.

Sefcovic has invited Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao to Brussels later this month as the bloc still hopes it can prevent escalation through dialogue with China -- but an EU official would not confirm the visit.