Oil Prices Sink Further as Trump Signs Deal to Reopen Hormuz

(FILES) This aerial view shows the fuel depot of Aral at the Ruhr Oel petroleum refineries of BP Gelsenkirchen GmbH in Gelsenkirchen, western Germany on March 9, 2026. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP)
(FILES) This aerial view shows the fuel depot of Aral at the Ruhr Oel petroleum refineries of BP Gelsenkirchen GmbH in Gelsenkirchen, western Germany on March 9, 2026. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP)
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Oil Prices Sink Further as Trump Signs Deal to Reopen Hormuz

(FILES) This aerial view shows the fuel depot of Aral at the Ruhr Oel petroleum refineries of BP Gelsenkirchen GmbH in Gelsenkirchen, western Germany on March 9, 2026. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP)
(FILES) This aerial view shows the fuel depot of Aral at the Ruhr Oel petroleum refineries of BP Gelsenkirchen GmbH in Gelsenkirchen, western Germany on March 9, 2026. (Photo by Ina FASSBENDER / AFP)

Oil prices tumbled again Thursday after US President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart signed off on a deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The news boosted optimism for a lasting peace between the two nations after more than three months of war that has rattled energy markets and fueled a fresh spike in inflation.

However, the upbeat mood on trading floors was tempered by expectations the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates before year's end, after its new boss held his first policy meeting and acknowledged "persistently high prices are a burden for the American people", reported AFP.

Trump put his signature to the memorandum of understanding in Versailles after a G7 summit, telling reporters: "Just signed it."

Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei, quoted by state news agency IRNA, said the document "was finalized with the signatures of the presidents".

All eyes are now on the strait, through which a fifth of world oil normally passes and which Tehran effectively closed after the United States and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28.

"As a first step, Islamic Republic of Iran will instantly reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the United States of America will immediately lift the naval blockade," Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose officials mediated the agreement, said on X.

The deal will see Washington commit to immediately waive oil sanctions and facilitate the release of a $300 billion reconstruction fund, while Tehran agrees to dilute its enriched uranium as talks on a longer-term agreement are held.

Crude fell more than three percent Thursday, extending the losses sustained since news broke at the weekend. Both main contracts have plummeted more than 15 percent since last week, when talk of an agreement began swirling.

"A signed MOU and a faster path toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz should pull some of the panic premium out of crude," wrote Stephen Innes at SPI Asset Management.

"That matters because oil was not just trading war risk. It was trading the possibility that reserve drawdowns and blocked Gulf flows would create an energy cliff."

Equities were mixed as they struggled to maintain the positive momentum seen this week.

Seoul was again at the forefront of the gains, ploughing past 9,000 points for the first time thanks to another surge in chip titans Samsung and SK hynix as the AI boom continues apace.

"South Korea supplies around 80 percent of the world's memory chips, and artificial intelligence is expected to continue growing for at least another decade," Kim Dae-jong, a professor at Sejong University, told AFP.

"Semiconductors account for roughly half of South Korea's industrial output, and this is seen as the biggest reason why Kospi broke through the 9,000-point mark."

Tokyo, Singapore, Taipei, Mumbai and Manila also rose but Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Wellington, Bangkok and Jakarta fell along with London. Paris was flat while Frankfurt rose.

The mixed performance followed the Fed's latest policy meeting that saw it hold rates as expected but indicate it could hike in the next six months.

The gathering was the first for new boss Kevin Warsh, who flagged the fact that inflation has been well above the bank's two percent target for years but vowed to "deliver price stability".

"Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue," he said after the meeting at which he also wanted wide-ranging reforms at the bank.

Warsh was appointed by Trump, who has launched an unprecedented assault on the Fed's independence and called previous boss Jerome Powell incompetent for not cutting rates enough.

Analysts pointed out that the Fed's post-meeting statement did not make mention of an easing bias, as it had done previously.

The fact there was more emphasis on prices rather than jobs was also noted.

Data this month has shown inflation at a three-year high, while the labor market remains healthy.

"While there is no suggestion the Fed's dual mandate has shifted away from unemployment as well as price stability, markets have been left with a view (that) the emphasis appears to have shifted to the latter for now," wrote National Australia Bank's Gavin Friend.



Strait of Hormuz Ship Crossings Remain in Single Digits

FILE PHOTO: Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, September 2, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, September 2, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
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Strait of Hormuz Ship Crossings Remain in Single Digits

FILE PHOTO: Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, September 2, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, September 2, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo

Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz remained in the single digits at four on Tuesday, down from seven a day earlier, preliminary shipping data showed on Wednesday, falling well short of the 10-day average of 18.

The drop in traffic through the waterway that handled one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied ⁠natural gas supply before ⁠the Iran war comes after attacks in the region intensified.

Of the total on Tuesday, two ships were exiting and two were entering, according to the data.

No very large crude carriers ⁠or liquefied natural gas tankers were involved.

Some ships may be sailing through the waterway with their transponders turned off and they are therefore not counted.

One very large gas carrier, Salute, carrying around 470,000 barrels of liquefied petroleum gas exited via the Iranian route, while Panamax-sized tanker Nautilus, carrying around 510,000 barrels of naphtha, exited ⁠via ⁠an unknown dark route, Reuters reported.

The two ships that entered were both laden, with one being a short-range dirty products tanker and the other a dry bulk carrier. Both entered via the Iranian route.

Meanwhile, the number of ships sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was at 22, little changed on Tuesday compared with a day ago at 24.


Türkiye 2027 Inflation Target Realistic, Minister Says

People shop at the Eminonu district of Istanbul, Türkiye, April 25, 2025. (Reuters)
People shop at the Eminonu district of Istanbul, Türkiye, April 25, 2025. (Reuters)
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Türkiye 2027 Inflation Target Realistic, Minister Says

People shop at the Eminonu district of Istanbul, Türkiye, April 25, 2025. (Reuters)
People shop at the Eminonu district of Istanbul, Türkiye, April 25, 2025. (Reuters)

Türkiye's 2027 inflation target in its medium-term program is regarded as realistic by markets, provided that the Iran war does not continue next year, Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said in an interview with broadcaster Haberturk on Wednesday.

Türkiye should normally operate a floating ‌exchange rate regime, ‌as it provides the ‌basis ⁠for responding correctly ⁠to shocks, Simsek said.

Türkiye has always provided wage increases of at least the rate of inflation for all public workers and retirees, and will continue to do so, ⁠he added.

Once inflation ‌falls to ‌single digits, mandatory export proceeds sales requirements could ‌be lifted in favor of ‌a freer regime, he also said.

Conditions for removing the mandatory export sales requirement have not yet been met and ‌Türkiye will review the matter when they arise.

The government expects ⁠inflation ⁠to slow to 28.4% this year and to 21% in 2027 before dropping to single digits in 2029 — about two years later than previously predicted.

The US-sanctioned Golden Global Yatirim bank is small and poses no systemic risk, Simsek also said, calling on other banks to comply with international regulations and strengthen compliance.


Bahrain's Alba Says Produces 1.3 Million Tons Per Year of Aluminium

The Bahraini capital (Reuters)
The Bahraini capital (Reuters)
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Bahrain's Alba Says Produces 1.3 Million Tons Per Year of Aluminium

The Bahraini capital (Reuters)
The Bahraini capital (Reuters)

Aluminium Bahrain, known as Alba, is currently producing aluminium at an annualized rate of 1.3 million metric tons, versus a pre-Iran war capacity of around 1.6 million tons, its CEO said on Wednesday.

Alba, which describes itself as the world's biggest aluminium smelter on one site, shut down production ⁠lines 1, 2, and ⁠3 following the outbreak of the war as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz restricted exports. The plant was then hit by an Iranian attack in late March.

Alba is now operating lines 4, 5 and 6 at its smelter, equivalent to 1.3 ⁠million tons per year, Ali Al Baqali told Reuters on the sidelines of the Fastmarkets Aluminium Conference in Budapest.

He described the Iranian strike as a "small, minor attack.”

"We got damages and we already repaired them. Nothing needed," Al Baqali said, adding that Alba had been covered by insurance.

Its overall capacity will return to 1.6 million tons when it completes its acquisition of French smelter Aluminium Dunkerque in the next couple of months, Al ⁠Baqali said.

To ⁠maintain production, Alba is bringing in 300 to 350 trucks carrying raw material alumina on a daily basis, the CEO said.

"We are managing to receive around 7,000 metric tons of alumina every day," Al Baqali said, describing the logistics operation as "expensive,” but offset by the high London Metal Exchange aluminium price and premiums for physical metal.

Alba is exporting metal via the Saudi port of Jeddah on the Red Sea and from Sohar in Oman, Al Baqali said, as hostilities in the Middle East continue.