During a meeting between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in France, Trump affirmed that he would give the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) issue the highest priority in order to reach a fair settlement. The remarks prompted diplomats and analysts to predict a possible breakthrough in a dispute that has remained stalled for years.
With this commitment, and amid a calmer regional environment following the easing of tensions surrounding the Iran war, experts believe the dam issue could regain international attention after years of stagnation.
Egypt announced in 2024 that negotiations with Ethiopia over the dam had come to a halt after years of talks, attributing the breakdown to "the lack of political will on the Ethiopian side," according to previous statements by the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation.
During his meeting with Trump on Wednesday, El Sisi reiterated the critical importance of the Nile River issue, describing it as a matter of Egyptian national security, and expressed appreciation for the US president's interest in the matter.
For his part, Trump said he understood all of Egypt's concerns and stressed that he would give the issue "the highest priority in order to reach a fair settlement," according to a statement issued by the Egyptian presidency.
Speaking to El Sisi in remarks carried by the media, Trump said: "I think Ethiopia has treated you unfairly." He added: "A dam was built in Ethiopia that is causing major problems for Egypt, and I am fully aware of that. We will see whether we can reach a settlement on it."
US Diplomatic Activity
Recent months have seen renewed US engagement after nearly two years of suspended negotiations between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Renaissance Dam.
US Diplomatic Activity
On May 18, a phone call between Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and Massad Boulos, Senior Adviser to the US President for Arab and African Affairs, addressed the Ethiopian dam dispute and Egypt's water security.
Abdelatty emphasized Egypt's "complete rejection of any unilateral measures" and stated that water is an existential issue for the country. Meanwhile, according to the Egyptian statement, Boulos affirmed the US administration's commitment to strengthening its strategic partnership with Egypt and maintaining close coordination between the two countries in addressing shared challenges.
Earlier, on May 12, Boulos wrote on X that he had held "productive and comprehensive meetings" with an Ethiopian delegation led by Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos and including National Intelligence and Security Service Director General Redwan Hussein. He added: "We held constructive discussions on the Nile River and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam."
A well informed Egyptian source previously told Asharq Al Awsat that efforts were underway to revive the "Washington Document," which Cairo signed in February 2020 but Addis Ababa rejected, albeit in a revised form designed to secure broader consensus.
The document included a phased timetable for filling the reservoir, mechanisms for coordination during drought and prolonged drought conditions, arrangements for annual and long term dam operations under such circumstances, as well as provisions for dispute resolution and information sharing.
The Egyptian source's comments came days after Boulos told Asharq Al Awsat that the US president had expressed his country's readiness to resume mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia "to reach a responsible and final settlement of the Renaissance Dam issue."
In January, Trump sent an official letter to El Sisi expressing Washington's willingness to restart negotiations over the dam and reach a final and fair solution. The move followed three statements he made in June and July 2025, in which he said that "Washington funded the dam, and there must be a quick solution to this crisis."
Back on the International Agenda
Mohamed Hegazy, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs and former assistant foreign minister, believes Trump's commitment represents an important political development that returns the issue to the international spotlight after years of deadlock.
Speaking to Asharq Al Awsat, he said: "The significance of these statements lies in the fact that they reflect renewed US recognition of the link between water issues and regional security and stability, as well as an acknowledgment that Egypt's water security is a fundamental component of security in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa."
Hegazy added that raising the issue on the sidelines of the G7 Summit is particularly significant because it comes amid a reordering of international priorities following the easing of tensions between the United States and Iran and growing concern over Red Sea security and international maritime routes. In this context, he said, the Nile issue becomes part of a broader equation involving regional security, sustainable development, and the prevention of conflicts linked to natural resources.
According to Hegazy, the real challenge lies in translating US political support for Egypt into practical measures, whether by relaunching a serious and time bound negotiation process or by providing international guarantees that help the parties reach a legally binding agreement governing dam operations and management during periods of drought and prolonged drought. Such an agreement, he said, would balance Ethiopia's right to development with Egypt's right to life and water security.
Hegazy concluded that the Egyptian US presidential meeting could open a "diplomatic window" and provide fresh momentum toward resolving the crisis if followed by serious political and diplomatic efforts.
However, Ethiopian political analyst and African affairs specialist Anwar Ibrahim holds a different view. He believes strong US intervention in the Renaissance Dam issue could lead to "undesirable developments" and argues that the greatest challenge is the transfer of the file to Washington.
Speaking to Asharq Al Awsat, Ibrahim said that US involvement and what he described as "bias toward Egypt" were the main reasons negotiations over the Renaissance Dam failed during Trump's first term.
He added: "The United States will not succeed in creating any real rapprochement because it relies on a carrot and stick approach without understanding the importance of the Nile for all countries in the region."
Nevertheless, Ibrahim did not rule out the possibility of a solution, but only "on the basis of understanding everyone's needs and reaching mutual understandings without pressure being exerted on Addis Ababa. Otherwise, the process will fail again and the dispute will return as a major source of tension," he said.
