Oil Edges Higher as Breakdown in Iran-US Talks Raises Supply Concerns

FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack, used to help lift oil from a well, in the Permian basin near Midland, Texas, US, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack, used to help lift oil from a well, in the Permian basin near Midland, Texas, US, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo
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Oil Edges Higher as Breakdown in Iran-US Talks Raises Supply Concerns

FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack, used to help lift oil from a well, in the Permian basin near Midland, Texas, US, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A pumpjack, used to help lift oil from a well, in the Permian basin near Midland, Texas, US, October 8, 2025. REUTERS/Arathy Somasekhar/File Photo

Oil prices ticked higher on Wednesday on concerns a breakdown in talks between Iran and the US for a final agreement to end their war may extend supply disruptions in the key Middle East producing region.

Brent futures rose 14 cents, or 0.19%, to $73.09 a barrel at 0644 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 11 cents, or 0.16%, to $69.61 a barrel, Reuters said.

"Hormuz continues to reopen but it's patchy, unpredictable, and not fully transparent,” said Vandana Hari, founder ‌of oil market analysis ‌provider Vanda Insights.

"Unless there is a fresh understanding ‌between ⁠Washington and Tehran, the ⁠market may wait and watch for sustained peace and quiet before crude resumes bearish momentum."

US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Doha for what the White House described as "high level" talks on Tuesday, but Iran and host Qatar said they would meet with mediators, rather than the Iranians themselves.

Qatar said Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani was among those to meet with ⁠Witkoff and Kushner. Brent fell by around $45 a barrel in ‌the second quarter of this year, its largest ‌quarterly loss since the global financial crisis in 2008. US crude futures meanwhile fell by ‌around $31, their largest quarterly loss since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic crushed global oil ‌demand.

The declines followed progress toward ending the Middle East conflict, after sharp gains in March triggered by the outbreak in hostilities.

Analysts have cut their 2026 oil price forecasts for the first time since the Iran war began, after five straight monthly increases, as the ‌reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns over prolonged supply disruptions, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

US Vice President ⁠JD Vance said ⁠Iran would be prevented from charging tolls through the strait, telling The Michael Knowles Show, "This is not going to end in a place where the Iranians are collecting tolls on ships going through the Strait of Hormuz."

Tanker traffic through the critical waterway has started to recover, with Vance claiming that oil flows through the strait had been restored to pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, US crude oil inventories fell again last week while gasoline stocks also declined, market sources said, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute released on Tuesday.

Crude stocks fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week ended June 26, the sources said on condition of anonymity.

Official US oil stock data from the Energy Information Administration will be released at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.



Alphabet's Investment in SpaceX Multiplies 100-Fold to $94 Billion

The letters of the word "Alphabet" on a computer screen featuring a Google search page in an illustration (Reuters)
The letters of the word "Alphabet" on a computer screen featuring a Google search page in an illustration (Reuters)
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Alphabet's Investment in SpaceX Multiplies 100-Fold to $94 Billion

The letters of the word "Alphabet" on a computer screen featuring a Google search page in an illustration (Reuters)
The letters of the word "Alphabet" on a computer screen featuring a Google search page in an illustration (Reuters)

Alphabet's early bet on SpaceX has multiplied more than 100-fold, with the Google parent disclosing a stake worth about $94 billion at the end of June compared with the $900 million investment it said it made in Elon Musk's rocket company in 2015.

Alphabet has emerged as by far the largest single institutional holder of SpaceX following its $86 billion IPO in June, according to a Reuters analysis of quarterly filings made public so far.

The filings shed new light on the scale of positions acquired by SpaceX's backers as the company transitioned from a closely held startup to a publicly traded giant. Together with separate public disclosures on early investments, including Alphabet's, they also highlight how dramatically the value of some early investments in SpaceX has grown.

Because the 13F filing data is compiled once ⁠per quarter and disclosed ⁠within six weeks of quarter-end, the information is dated and will not capture any buying or selling done by these large investors since June 30.

There are other limitations as well, given the vast universe of SpaceX investments and the evolving schedule of when they stand to become eligible to be sold in public markets.

"It's very, very difficult to tease out which of these institutions were holding pre-IPO shares," said Steve Sosnick, market strategist at Interactive Brokers.

Alphabet is an exception because the company publicly disclosed that it invested $900 million in SpaceX ⁠in 2015, providing a rare benchmark against which to compare the value of its current holding.

Alphabet did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Sosnick added that the 13F filings did not reveal investors' lockup status or intentions with respect to realizing profits on pre-IPO positions.

FILE - The SpaceX logo is displayed on a building, May 26, 2020, at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip, File)

Alphabet held 551.2 million SpaceX shares at the end of the second quarter, according to the firm's filing, worth about $94.2 billion at SpaceX's June 30 share price of $170.86.

At Thursday's price, Alphabet's disclosed position would be worth about $77.9 billion, still about 86.5 times the size of Google's original investment. Fidelity Investments was the second-largest reported institutional holder, with 302.6 million SpaceX shares, followed by Gigafund Management with 171.8 million, Baillie Gifford with 51.4 million and BlackRock with 51.0 million.

Alphabet, Fidelity, Gigafund Management, Baillie Gifford and BlackRock, the five largest reported holders in the data, accounted for nearly three quarters ⁠of reported SpaceX ⁠shares, highlighting the concentration of reported institutional ownership among a handful of investors.

Separately, SpaceX said in a regulatory filing that Musk owned a 48.4% stake in the company. SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 a share. Its shares have since retreated from their end-June level. SpaceX closed at $141.29 on Thursday, 4.7% above its IPO price but 17.3% below the June 30 close.

Sosnick told Reuters that SpaceX remains one of the most actively traded stocks among customers at Interactive Brokers, receiving a "fresh jolt of buying last week when market fears about what would happen when the first lockup expiry arrived proved to be unfounded."

Retail owners of SpaceX shares, who do not have to submit their holdings to the SEC, turned into net sellers of the stock on Friday for the first time since the IPO, according to data from Vanda Research.

The research firm, which tracks the activity of self-directed individual investors, calculated that this group sold a net $4.5 million on that day. SpaceX shares were down 3% on Thursday but have risen 30% since August 5.


Iraqi Daily Oil Exports in August Highest since Start of War

A view across Shatt al-Arab of the 'Bin Omar' oil field north of Basra, Iraq (Reuters)
A view across Shatt al-Arab of the 'Bin Omar' oil field north of Basra, Iraq (Reuters)
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Iraqi Daily Oil Exports in August Highest since Start of War

A view across Shatt al-Arab of the 'Bin Omar' oil field north of Basra, Iraq (Reuters)
A view across Shatt al-Arab of the 'Bin Omar' oil field north of Basra, Iraq (Reuters)

Iraq's average daily oil exports since the beginning of August are the highest since the outbreak of the Middle East war between Iran and the United States, which has choked off the Strait of Hormuz, the oil ministry said Friday.

Iraqi Oil Minister Bassem Mohammed Khudair told a press conference that "exports since the beginning of the month have reached a rate of two million barrels" per day, for a total of around 26 million barrels, saying the daily rate was achieved "for the first time since the crisis began".


Fitch Keeps US at 'AA+', Cites Economic Resilience amid Fiscal Risks

The American flag flies in the National Mall near the Capitol building in Washington (Reuters)
The American flag flies in the National Mall near the Capitol building in Washington (Reuters)
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Fitch Keeps US at 'AA+', Cites Economic Resilience amid Fiscal Risks

The American flag flies in the National Mall near the Capitol building in Washington (Reuters)
The American flag flies in the National Mall near the Capitol building in Washington (Reuters)

Fitch on Thursday affirmed the sovereign credit rating for the United States at "AA+" with a stable outlook, citing its large economy, high per-capita income and the US dollar's status as the world's leading reserve currency.

The US economy remained resilient despite higher tariffs, government spending cuts, tighter border controls and heightened policy uncertainty, reflecting its ability to absorb shocks and economic flexibility, Reuters quoted the credit ratings agency ⁠as saying.

Fitch, however, estimated ⁠economic growth of 1.9% in 2026-2027, lower than the 2.8% in 2025, and noted weakening labor demand and a significant slowdown in job creation this year.

Inflation remains a concern, with the agency expecting it to average 3.4% in ⁠2026, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Tariffs have added to core goods inflation, though their impact has been less severe than expected.

Fitch expects the general government deficit to widen to 7.4% of GDP in 2026 and remain at that level in 2027, the highest among "AA"-rated sovereigns.

Higher military and interest costs, along with rising Medicare and Social Security spending, would limit ⁠efforts ⁠to reduce the deficit.

Peer S&P Global also maintained its "AA+" rating on the US in June, citing the economy's resilience and strong institutions.

Fitch had downgraded the US sovereign rating by one notch from the top-tier triple-A rating in 2023, pointing to expected fiscal deterioration and repeated down-to-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations.

Moody's downgraded the US by one notch last year, citing rising debt levels and stripping the country of its last remaining triple-A rating.