India Eyes Oil Exploration Expansion After Middle East War Shortages

Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri (C) gestures during his visit at the Golden temple in Amritsar on May 15, 2023. (AFP)
Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri (C) gestures during his visit at the Golden temple in Amritsar on May 15, 2023. (AFP)
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India Eyes Oil Exploration Expansion After Middle East War Shortages

Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri (C) gestures during his visit at the Golden temple in Amritsar on May 15, 2023. (AFP)
Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri (C) gestures during his visit at the Golden temple in Amritsar on May 15, 2023. (AFP)

Hit by the biggest energy supply shock in decades during the Middle East war, import-dependent India is expanding domestic crude exploration, its oil minister says.

India, the world's third-largest importer of oil and the second-largest buyer of liquefied petroleum gas, faced major disruptions due to restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict between the United States and Iran.

With a temporary US-Iran deal in place to pause hostilities, oil and gas shipments are flowing through the Gulf waterway again, and restrictions and price hikes in India are being rolled back.

But Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri said the energy crunch provided fresh impetus for India's expansion of domestic supplies.

"We are currently in the process... to bid out about 250,000 square kilometers (96,500 square miles) of unexplored area," Puri told AFP.

India is a modest producer in global terms.

Domestic crude production in 2025-2026 was 25.98 million metric tons, according to the oil ministry.

That meets just 10 percent of India's crude needs, equivalent to roughly 522,000 barrels per day (bpd) -- a figure well below its production peak of just more than 900,000 bpd in 2011.

India survived the energy crunch by expanding its crude suppliers from 27 to 41 countries, including Iran, Venezuela, greater purchases from Russia and several African nations.

New Delhi has previously been criticized by both the United States and Europe for its purchase of Russian oil, with critics arguing that it bankrolled Moscow's war against Kyiv.

But Puri said India had a "pragmatic approach" that put its energy needs above "ideological considerations".

- 'Ocean of energy opportunities' -

The country's domestic crude production is concentrated in the west -- in its Mumbai offshore fields, Rajasthan and Gujarat -- as well as the northeastern state of Assam.

But Puri has hailed what he calls an "ocean of energy opportunities" off India's Andaman and Nicobar archipelago, an 800-kilometer-long (500-mile) chain of environmentally sensitive islands in the seas bordering Thailand and Indonesia.

The vast Andaman Basin is geologically similar to hydrocarbon-bearing basins in Southeast Asia.

Puri posted a video on social media in June of a gas flare at an exploratory well drilled in the Andaman Sea by state-owned Oil India.

"Large number of deepwater and ultra-deepwater exploration wells are planned in our offshore basins to fully exploit our hydrocarbon reserves," Puri said when he released the video.

New Delhi is working with "deepwater exploration experts" including Petrobras, TotalEnergies, BP, Shell and ExxonMobil, he said.

In the same Andaman Sea, India is readying a $9 billion Great Nicobar Island Project to build a megaport, airport and city, creating a strategic base on what is, for now, a far-flung island covered in pristine forests and home to one of Earth's most isolated peoples.

- 'Exceptionally bullish' -

The push pre-dates the Middle East war.

Hindu-nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the "Samudra Manthan" mission during a speech marking Independence Day in August 2025.

The name refers to a central event in Hindu mythology meaning the "churning of the ocean".

"We want to work in a mission mode towards finding oil reserves, gas reserves under the sea and hence India is going to start the National Deep Water Exploration Mission," Modi said at the time.

But India's bid to reduce dependence faces challenges.

Domestic demand in the world's most populous nation of 1.4 billion people is growing rapidly -- even as the government vows to achieve carbon neutrality by 2070.

India is also ramping up investments in renewables, nuclear energy and blending petrol with ethanol.

"India's energy consumption today is growing at three times the pace compared to rest of the world," Puri said.

"It has jumped from five million barrels per day in 2021 to about 5.6 million barrels today, and would soon touch six million barrels per day, on the back of the robust economic and per capita income growth."

Puri said he was "exceptionally bullish" for the future.

"I am happy with the knowledge that our E+P (exploration & production) is going up and, believe me, it's going to rise very fast," Puri said.

He noted it was "a very capital intensive and time-consuming" process, but said he had high hopes.

"We are putting fiscal resources into oil and gas exploration in a very big way -- with a $10 billion program," he added.

"With it, we are going into one million kilometers of unexplored area."



Silver Demand Seen Down 5% This Year Due to Weaker Jewellery Purchases

Silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. (Reuters)
Silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. (Reuters)
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Silver Demand Seen Down 5% This Year Due to Weaker Jewellery Purchases

Silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. (Reuters)
Silver bars are stacked in the safe deposit boxes room of the Pro Aurum gold house in Munich, Germany, January 10, 2025. (Reuters)

Silver demand is expected to fall by 5% in 2026 due to weaker jewellery demand and lower consumption in solar cells, where high prices have accelerated substitution, research showed on Friday.

Research done by consultancy Metals Focus for the Silver Institute puts demand at 1.08 billion troy ounces this year.

Silver, used in jewellery, electronics, electric vehicles and solar panels as well as for investment, is ‌down 59% ‌to $50 an ounce since retail buying drove prices ‌to ⁠a record high ⁠of $121.6 in January.

The base for that rally was created in 2025, when silver surged 147%, as massive inflows of the metal to US inventories due to tariff uncertainty and into silver-backed exchange-traded products (ETPs) tightened liquidity in the London market.

This year, expectations for higher interest rates, a stronger dollar and higher bond yields have weighed on investment ⁠sentiment.

Silver released through ETP selling, outflows from stocks ‌in the US and a smaller ‌market deficit improved liquidity in the physical market, the Silver Institute and ‌consultancy Metals Focus said on Friday.

Metals Focus sees net ETP ‌outflows of 45 million ounces this year after 278 million ounces of inflows in 2025.

As of early November, ETP holdings stood at 1.25 billion ounces.

Industrial demand is expected to fall by 3% in 2026 as installations ‌in photovoltaics have fallen short of expectations, particularly in China, while January's record silver prices accelerated ⁠substitution.

Meanwhile, demand ⁠for jewellery and silverware is forecast to decline by 22% and 17%, respectively, as higher prices and weaker rural spending in India encouraged purchases of smaller, lighter products.

Demand in China and the US is also subdued. Strong retail investment in late 2025 and early 2026 gave way to far more subdued buying from March as silver prices fell, Metals Focus said.

It expects global bar and coin demand to fall 2% this year, with US retail investment hitting its lowest level since 2010.


Gold Rises on Bargain Hunting but Heads for Weekly Decline

Gold necklaces are on display inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Mumbai, India April 18, 2018. (Reuters)
Gold necklaces are on display inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Mumbai, India April 18, 2018. (Reuters)
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Gold Rises on Bargain Hunting but Heads for Weekly Decline

Gold necklaces are on display inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Mumbai, India April 18, 2018. (Reuters)
Gold necklaces are on display inside a jewellery showroom on the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, a major gold buying festival, in Mumbai, India April 18, 2018. (Reuters)

Gold rose on Friday as bargain hunting emerged after prices hit a more than one-year low in the previous session, while market focus shifted to upcoming US inflation data.

Spot gold climbed 1% to $3,915.31 per ounce by 0322 GMT but was down 3.5% so far this week. US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.9% to $3,919.60.

"Today's move is ‌more of a ‌positioning adjustment, given that several intraday short-term ‌momentum ⁠indicators had kind ⁠of hit an extreme oversold level after yesterday's dramatic fall," said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

"A short-term driver that could be bullish for gold will be a sudden turn of the US Treasury yield, that would potentially slow down the US dollar."

Spot gold prices hit their lowest level since ⁠October 2025 on Thursday as oil prices climbed ‌on fading hopes for peace ‌in the Middle East, spurring fears of higher inflation and elevated interest ‌rates.

Markets see an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point US ‌rate hike in December, while the probability of a larger 50-basis-point move is priced at 11%, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Although gold is typically seen as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates increase the ‌opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, reducing its appeal to investors.

Federal Reserve Bank of New York ⁠President John ⁠Williams said on Thursday more rate hikes are likely as the US central bank seeks to lower high levels of inflation in an otherwise healthy economy.

Data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but remained at a level consistent with a stable labor market.

Market participants now await the US Producer Price Index data due at 1330 GMT.

Among other metals, spot silver rose 1% to $50.49 per ounce and palladium climbed 2.1% to $1,014.50, but both were headed for weekly declines.

Spot platinum gained 1.3% to $1,538.22 and was on track for a modest weekly gain.


Dollar Set for Best Week in Two Months, Yen Tests 160

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
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Dollar Set for Best Week in Two Months, Yen Tests 160

US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)
US dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 24, 2026. (Reuters)

The dollar held near 19-month highs on Friday and was set for its biggest weekly rise in two months as bets on a larger rate hike pushed up US yields and the yen hovered below the 160 mark, prompting Tokyo to warn it would respond to excessive moves.

Treasury yields rose after President Donald Trump's comment that the US did not need a deal with Iran stoked worries about Middle Eastern oil supply, lifting crude prices and, with them, inflation expectations.

The move, together with hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and this week's stronger-than-expected ‌US inflation data, has ‌left traders weighing the prospect of a larger-than-usual Fed rate hike ‌next ⁠month.

Two-year Treasury yields ⁠have risen 33 basis points so far this week to around 4.85%, on course for their biggest weekly jump since 2024.

The biggest risk to dollar strength is a Middle East peace deal, said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex, as that would diminish the support it draws from high energy prices and its safe-haven status.

"Absent that happening, we think the dollar is likely to continue to at least remain around current levels if not strengthen slightly as we look ahead," Rees said.

The ⁠euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1065, after hitting its lowest level against the ‌dollar since April 2025. For the week, it is ‌down 0.7%, on track for its largest weekly loss since late September.

Fed officials this week warned that US ‌inflation remains stubbornly elevated, with some signalling openness to a 50-basis-point rate increase if price pressures ‌fail to ease. Traders are pricing in a 12.1% chance of such a hike next month, up from 0% last week, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was at 103.17, near its highest since April 2025. For the week, the dollar is set ‌to gain 0.9%, the most since September.

YEN INTERVENTION IN FOCUS

The yen was steady at 159.90 per dollar, around its weakest since early September, ⁠fuelling concerns about possible intervention. ⁠The currency has weakened 0.9% this week, on track for its biggest weekly loss since September.

Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday the government would respond appropriately to currency volatility.

Japan spent 15.4 trillion yen ($96.5 billion) to bolster the currency after it sank to a four-decade low of 163.99 per dollar in late July.

Markets will be cautious around this level, said Monex's Rees, adding that he expects the trigger for intervention somewhere a little higher than 160.

The Australian dollar has fallen about 3.4% so far this month, making it the worst-performing G10 currency against the greenback. Australia is the only G10 country for which markets are pricing a rate cut next year. The Aussie was last at $0.6794.

The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc at 0.836, hovering near a one-month high.

Among cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 3.8% to $68,759, dropping below the key $70,000 level to its lowest since August. Ether also dropped 4% to $1,933.49.