The Saudi banking sector has once again demonstrated its robust financial fundamentals and high capacity to adapt to geopolitical challenges and global fluctuations, supported by strong momentum in financing and lending, alongside the continuation of Vision 2030 projects.
Conversely, banks have begun facing a new phase characterized by declining interest rates, intensifying competition for deposits, and rising operating costs - all of which exert growing pressure on margins and profitability.
However, experts believe that strong asset quality, improved liquidity, sustained credit growth, and the diversification of income streams will provide banks with a broader buffer to maintain their performance in the coming period.
The "Saudi Banks Pulse" report by Alvarez & Marsal showed a shift in financing and liquidity trends during the first quarter of 2026; customer deposits grew by 3.9 percent, surpassing the net financing growth of 1.6 percent, after several quarters where the pace of lending exceeded deposit growth.
This shift contributed to reducing the loan-to-deposit ratio to 104.1 percent, compared to 106.5 percent in the previous quarter, indicating an improvement in liquidity levels and a decrease in the financial pressures faced by banks as credit growth accelerated in recent periods.
In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Hazim Almegren, Managing Director of Alvarez & Marsal in the Middle East, attributed the robustness of the institutional lending to "structural and investment-driven rather than cyclical" motivations.
He explained that the continued implementation of the Vision 2030 projects, along with the strength of the banking sector's fundamentals, have been two key factors in maintaining the momentum of financing demand.
He added that the slowdown in loan growth, which coincided with the escalation of geopolitical tensions at the end of the first quarter, is expected to be temporary, likely with state-backed investment continuing to play a pivotal role in stabilizing the demand for financing.
He expected the effects of these pressures to gradually recede during the third quarter unless the region witnesses new escalations.
Competition for low-cost deposits
Despite the improvement in liquidity levels, the report said that the strong growth in deposits was largely driven by an increase in term deposits, amid intensified competition among banks to attract funding sources.
Almegren expected that the next phase will see a greater focus on maintaining current account and savings account (CASA) deposits, as they are the most stable and least costly source of financing.
The ability of banks to protect these deposits will be one of the most prominent determinants of profitability over the next 12 to 24 months, along with maintaining asset quality and enhancing fee and commission income, thereby limiting the impact of declining interest margins, he told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Profitability formula and interest margin
In terms of consolidated gross profitability, the Alvarez & Marsal report showed that the sector's net profits grew by 1.2 percent on a quarterly basis, compared to growth of only 0.2 percent in the last quarter of last year.
This stability in profitability coincided with banks maintaining a strong rate of return on assets, which stabilized at 2.0 percent, while the rate of return on risk-weighted assets remained stable at 2.7 percent. This reflects the banks' efficiency in managing the risks of their financing portfolios despite the surrounding challenges.
Almegren said the Saudi banking sector has entered a new phase with the return of benchmark interest rates to normal levels, which has begun to gradually put pressure on the profit margins of a number of banks.
According to the report, six of the ten largest listed banks recorded a decline in net interest margins, but the sector as a whole maintained a stable net interest margin (NIM) of 2.84 percent, supported by a decrease in the cost of funding to 3.2 percent, which partially offset the decline in the return on credit to 7.8 percent.
Almegren predicted that credit growth supported by Vision 2030 projects will be the most prominent and influential driver of gross profits for the current year compared to margin expansion.
In order to protect investment returns in the second half of the year after the return on shareholders' equity declined slightly to 14.7 percent, the current banking strategy is moving towards improving the asset mix and focusing on sectors with attractive risk-adjusted returns, instead of chasing after maximizing the volume of abstract lending, in parallel with diversifying sources of profits and increasing non-interest income, he added.
High liquidity does not imply cash hoarding
While the sector's liquidity coverage ratio reached approximately 172 percent, and rose to 312 percent at the Saudi National Bank (SNB), Almegren ruled out that this indicates liquidity hoarding driven by caution over geopolitical developments.
He explained that these levels reflect a mix of strategic considerations related to balance sheet management, alongside bank-specific market conditions, rather than a general defensive stance within the sector.
Credit quality and the decline in the cost of risk
One of the most prominent highlights reflecting the sector's financial resilience in the first-quarter report is the qualitative leap in banking asset quality. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stabilized at a record low of 0.9 percent, reflecting the sustained quality of credit portfolios and a reduced need for new provisioning.
Perhaps the primary driver supporting net profits during this quarter was the sharp and record decline in the cost of risk, which dropped to just 0.15 percent from 0.40 percent in the previous quarter, driven by credit portfolio recoveries.
Despite this drop in direct credit costs, Saudi banks maintained their strict precautionary policies, boosting the non-performing loan coverage ratio to 162.6 percent. This provides solid and sustainable supplementary buffers to protect balance sheets against any unexpected fluctuations.
In a feature reflecting the financial markets' positive outlook toward the sector, the report revealed that Saudi banks' valuations remained attractive and compelling for investors at the end of the first quarter of 2026. The sector's shares traded at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.8 times.
This indicator reflects low investment risk and rapid returns by measuring the relationship between a stock's market price and the bank's annual earnings, meaning that an investor can recover the value of their investment in just about 11 years based on current profitability levels.
This attractiveness was further reinforced by shares trading at a price-to-tangible book value (P/TBV) ratio of 1.6 times. This metric compares the bank's market value to its real, physical assets on the ground after excluding intangible assets like goodwill. This close ratio shows that markets value the banks at a safe pricing level that grants investors a high "margin of safety." At the same time, it confirms the soundness of the financial positions and the robust capital value of Saudi banks in the face of fluctuations.
Emerging challenges and investments securing tomorrow’s profitability
Despite precautionary buffers and positive indicators, the Alvarez & Marsal report identified signs of operational challenges beginning to cast a shadow over performance. The combined operating income of the banks declined by 2.3 percent to reach 40.4 billion riyals, impacted by a sharp 13.2 percent drop in non-interest income. This pressured revenues and overshadowed the modest growth in net interest income.
The most prominent current pressures include escalating operating expenses, which pushed the cost-to-income ratio up to 30.1 percent. This coincided with intensifying competition among banks to attract liquidity through high-cost time deposits, as well as loan repricing challenges following the initial decline in benchmark interest rates - all of which was reflected in a decrease in the yield on credit to 7.8 percent.
Almegren placed these operational figures within their strategic framework. He explained that the notable rise in expenses is primarily driven by continuous and heavy capital expenditure by banks on technological infrastructure, digital transformation, and artificial intelligence applications.
This increase represents "long-term investments" rather than transient operational pressures, he explained. These investments are strongly expected to boost productivity, enhance operational efficiency, and sharpen the competitive edge of Saudi banks over the medium and long term, transforming today’s expenditures into key drivers for bank profitability in the coming years.
Indicators suggest that Saudi banks are entering a new phase where the impact of interest rates as a primary driver of earnings is receding. In its place, the roles of asset quality, operational efficiency, technology investments, and the diversification of income streams are growing increasingly vital in supporting profitability and sustainable growth.
