Physical Oil Prices Jump with Some Nearing $110 as Iran, Ukraine Wars Hit Supply

A man refuels his motorbike at the petrol station in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 24 July 2026. (EPA)
A man refuels his motorbike at the petrol station in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 24 July 2026. (EPA)
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Physical Oil Prices Jump with Some Nearing $110 as Iran, Ukraine Wars Hit Supply

A man refuels his motorbike at the petrol station in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 24 July 2026. (EPA)
A man refuels his motorbike at the petrol station in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 24 July 2026. (EPA)

The price of physical crude oil cargoes in the Middle East, Europe and Africa jumped this week to two-month highs with some nearing $110 a barrel, as supply disruptions linked to the Iran and Ukraine wars left buyers scrambling to secure prompt supply from other sources.

Global oil price benchmark dated Brent, used to price over 60% of the world's physical crude cargoes, hit $105.70 per barrel on Thursday, according to LSEG data, its highest since late May and breaching $100 for the first time since early June. That pushed the price of North Sea Forties crude, priced against Brent, to $108.77 on Friday.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis attacked tankers in the Red Sea this week, triggering a rerouting ‌via a route that circles Africa. This followed the collapse of a preliminary US-Iran ‌peace ⁠deal and increased ⁠disruption to exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Supply considerations are once again at the forefront of thinking," said Tamas Varga, an oil broker at PVM.

Adding to the Middle East disruption, Kazakhstan said on Thursday it had reduced oil production after suspected Ukrainian drone attacks forced its main export terminal for CPC Blend crude on the Black Sea to close. Kazakh crude production has halved to around 406,000 barrels per day, one source said.

MIDDLE EASTERN GRADES REBOUND

Spot premiums for Middle East benchmark Dubai to swaps doubled on Thursday to $12.74 a barrel, while Oman's premium climbed to $12.62, Reuters data showed. Both premiums are the highest since the end of ⁠May. CRU/M

Middle Eastern grades had traded at wide discounts earlier this month during the ‌short-lived truce between the United States and Iran which was agreed in mid-June.

The ‌premium for Abu Dhabi's flagship Murban crude surged to $19.04, the highest since April 7, on tight supply for light-sour crude as ‌ship attacks in the Black Sea compounded the supply problems in the Middle East.

The front-month Dubai contract itself touched $99.66 ‌on Thursday, also a high since late May.

The rising security threat has already forced several oil tankers to change course in the Red Sea to head north towards the Suez Canal even as two Chinese supertankers exited on Thursday from Bab el-Mandeb into the Gulf of Aden.

Several Asian refiners are looking for cargoes and vessels loading from the Egyptian port, two traders said, which would mean almost a one-month diversion around Africa compared to ⁠the usual route through Bab el-Mandeb.

South ⁠Korea's largest refiner SK Energy has chartered a very large crude carrier (VLCC) to load 2 million barrels of crude from Sidi Kerir to Ulsan, South Korea, on August 18-20 at a lump-sum freight rate of $18.5 million, shipping sources said. The Korean refiner did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

"Buyers are now scrambling to secure supplies, with Japanese and South Korean refiners rushing into the market to buy cargoes," said one of the traders with a refiner, adding that the North Asia refiners are seeking Atlantic Basin crude.

ATLANTIC BASIN CRUDE GRADES ALSO RALLY

North Sea crudes jumped on Thursday, with Ekofisk's premium to dated Brent hitting a one-month high of $4.30 and that of Forties bid up to dated plus $3.60, its firmest premium since May.

The drop in Kazakh exports could boost demand from Mediterranean refiners for North Sea and West African grades, Kpler analysts wrote this week.

Short-term Brent swaps called contracts for differences, which help establish the dated Brent price, also surged on Thursday, with the contract for next week doubling to a $11.10 premium.

Sellers of West African crude have started to hike offers, traders told Reuters this week, but the market remains largely in wait-and-see mode according to one trader on Thursday.



Diesel Prices Overtake Jet Fuel in Europe as Global Shortage Widens

Petrol prices are displayed at a filling station, as the price of oil and gas has surged amid the conflict in the Middle East, in London, Britain, March 5, 2026 REUTERS/Jack Taylor
Petrol prices are displayed at a filling station, as the price of oil and gas has surged amid the conflict in the Middle East, in London, Britain, March 5, 2026 REUTERS/Jack Taylor
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Diesel Prices Overtake Jet Fuel in Europe as Global Shortage Widens

Petrol prices are displayed at a filling station, as the price of oil and gas has surged amid the conflict in the Middle East, in London, Britain, March 5, 2026 REUTERS/Jack Taylor
Petrol prices are displayed at a filling station, as the price of oil and gas has surged amid the conflict in the Middle East, in London, Britain, March 5, 2026 REUTERS/Jack Taylor

Diesel cargoes are costing more than jet fuel in Europe for the first time in more than a year, LSEG data showed, as the continent replaces lower Middle East air fuel shipments with other sources of supply, but struggles to secure more diesel for industry and agriculture.

Europe has been able to pull in jet cargoes from the US and other countries like Nigeria as prices surged after the start of the Iran war, which disrupted crude and fuel supply. Global diesel supply tightened even further when Russia banned exports amid Ukrainian attacks on its refineries.

"We see a higher risk of persistent scarcity pricing in diesel than in crude heading into winter," analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.

Europe boosted imports of jet fuel to 750,000 barrels per day in June — the highest since October 2025 — and a similar rate in July from 612,000 bpd in January, according to Kpler.

By contrast, European diesel imports have dropped to 1.56 million bpd in July from 1.97 million bpd in January. Against that backdrop, the price of diesel overtook that of jet fuel this week, LSEG data showed.

Diesel prices have resumed their rally in recent weeks amid an impasse in Iran peace talks and Russian export disruptions, and are now only 14% below their April peaks. Jet fuel prices, which have also risen in recent weeks, are meanwhile 25% below their March records.

"A brief period of cautious optimism for refined product markets has been quickly overtaken by renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, the collapse of Russian product supply and a diesel exports ban," said Karim Fawaz of S&P Global Energy.

WEAKENING JET DEMAND LIKELY WEIGHS ON PRICES, ANALYST SAYS

In a further sign of jet's relative weakness, it has dropped against the price of gasoil futures - the benchmark against which it is priced in Europe.

The price assessment of a jet cargo coming into Europe stood at a discount of $24 a metric ton to gasoil futures on August 10, according to LSEG.

This is the widest discount since July 2025, according to LSEG and Argus Media. At the height of the Iran war in March, LSEG and Argus assessed jet's premium at more than $500 a barrel. Weakening jet demand after the summer travel seasonal high and the expectation of higher European imports are likely weighing on prices, said Jay Maroo, analyst at Sparta Commodities.

 

 

 

 


Türkiye Central Bank Raises End-2026 Inflation Forecast to 28%, Leaves Target Unchanged

 Stray cats wait next to a fisherman at Karakoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (AP)
Stray cats wait next to a fisherman at Karakoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (AP)
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Türkiye Central Bank Raises End-2026 Inflation Forecast to 28%, Leaves Target Unchanged

 Stray cats wait next to a fisherman at Karakoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (AP)
Stray cats wait next to a fisherman at Karakoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (AP)

Türkiye's central bank raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 28% from 26% but left its interim inflation target for the same period at 24%, Governor Fatih Karahan said on Thursday.

Presenting the central bank's quarterly inflation report ‌in Istanbul, Karahan said ‌the bank kept ‌its ⁠interim inflation target for ⁠end-2027 steady at 15% and the interim target for end-2028 stayed at 9%.

"The CBRT will ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path in line with ⁠the interim targets," Karahan said.

He said ‌the upward ‌revision of the end-2026 forecast was "driven ‌by the increase in the ‌assumption for Turkish lira-denominated import prices in view of the developments in prices of diesel oil, natural gas, and some ‌other commodities".

Last month, the central bank left its key interest ⁠rate ⁠at 37%, as expected, keeping borrowing costs unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting as it monitors the inflationary impact of the Iran war.

Turkish consumer price inflation rose to 1.78% month-on-month in July while annual inflation dipped slightly from a month earlier to 31.75%.


UK Economy Slows Amid Political Unrest, Middle East War

A person cycles through parched parkland in Birmingham, Britain, 13 August 2026. (EPA)
A person cycles through parched parkland in Birmingham, Britain, 13 August 2026. (EPA)
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UK Economy Slows Amid Political Unrest, Middle East War

A person cycles through parched parkland in Birmingham, Britain, 13 August 2026. (EPA)
A person cycles through parched parkland in Birmingham, Britain, 13 August 2026. (EPA)

Britain's economy slowed in the second quarter, the national statistics office reported Thursday, saying that output remained "robust" despite domestic political unrest and fallout from the US-Iran war.

Gross domestic product increased 0.4 percent in the April-June period after GDP expansion of 0.6 percent in the first quarter, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement.

Keir Starmer resigned as British prime minister in late June and was replaced around one month later by Andy Burnham, as the Labour government was overtaken in opinion polls by the hard-right party Reform UK.

Following Thursday's data, the country's new finance minister, John Healey, said that under Burnham, Labour was a "hands-on government, putting British interests first -- giving breathing space to those feeling the strain, making our country more resilient and bringing hope back".

Struggling already with elevated inflation, millions of Britons have seen their situation worsen after the US-Iran war sent energy costs soaring.

"I know people are worried about the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on their cost of living, which has been too high for too long and it has added pressure on British businesses," Healey added in a statement.

- World Cup boost -

The latest GDP data showed that output from the services sector grew 0.5 percent in the second quarter, and construction also expanded while production flattened.

"Growth (overall) slowed in the second quarter of the year, following a strong start to 2026, but remained relatively robust," said ONS director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown.

"Services were once again the main driver of growth," she added.

The second quarter had a strong finish, growing 0.3 percent in June after zero expansion in May and a slight dip in April, the ONS said.

It cited the recent football World Cup "as a reason for an increase in turnover in June... by businesses in industries such as wholesale, food and beverage serving activities, publishing activities, television production and advertising".

But Stuart Morrison, research manager at the British Chambers of Commerce, said in a statement that "the headline figures shouldn't disguise the cocktail of cost pressures choking long-term business growth".

He said Healey's first budget, due October 28, "must be a game changer for stronger, sustainable growth", adding that Britain needed "measures that boost trade, investment and productivity".

Burnham has so far concentrated on easing the cost of living for households, with tax on their electricity bills set to be removed this winter.

The Bank of England recently warned that British inflation was set to rise as the Middle East war keeps energy prices high.