Gold Off Two-month Peak as Traders Seek Inflation Cues

Gold bars and 'sovereign pounds' coins at Bird & Co. in Hatton Garden, London (Reuters)
Gold bars and 'sovereign pounds' coins at Bird & Co. in Hatton Garden, London (Reuters)
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Gold Off Two-month Peak as Traders Seek Inflation Cues

Gold bars and 'sovereign pounds' coins at Bird & Co. in Hatton Garden, London (Reuters)
Gold bars and 'sovereign pounds' coins at Bird & Co. in Hatton Garden, London (Reuters)

Gold edged lower on Thursday, after touching a more than two-month high earlier in the session, as traders paused after a rally fueled by cooling US inflation, with attention turning to an upcoming producer price report for clues to prospects of near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,383.53 per ounce ‌by 0601 GMT, after ‌jumping about 1% to its highest since ‌June ⁠5. US gold futures ⁠for December delivery fell 0.6% at $4,440.80.

"Gold is in consolidation mode today after its post-CPI gains, with near-term expectations of a Fed rate hike being dialed back another notch," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

"Traders appear content to wait for confirmation from the upcoming PPI data before committing to the next leg higher."

Prices have ⁠risen over 8% so far this month, ‌as traders scale back US interest rate ‌hikes bets amid recent softer economic data.

On the geopolitical front, Iran and ‌the US remain at loggerheads over efforts to agree on a ‌permanent end to the war, according to a senior Iranian source, who said there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June.

On monetary policy, Fed policymakers are likely ‌to feel little fresh urgency to raise interest rates next month after data on Wednesday showed inflation ⁠cooled on ⁠a year-over-year basis for a second straight month.

The consumer price index rose 3.4% in the 12 months through July, down from 3.5% in June, in line with economists' expectations. Traders are now pricing in only a 40% chance of a hike at the September meeting, down from about 54% seen a week before, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Lower rates tend to support gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

In other metals, spot silver lost about 0.3% to $65.09 per ounce, having climbed to its highest since June 22 in the previous session.

Platinum lost 0.8% at $1,741.96, and palladium fell 0.9% at $1,357.29.



Riyadh to Add 94 New Trains to Boost Transport Capacity

A Riyadh Metro train travels through the Saudi capital. (SPA)
A Riyadh Metro train travels through the Saudi capital. (SPA)
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Riyadh to Add 94 New Trains to Boost Transport Capacity

A Riyadh Metro train travels through the Saudi capital. (SPA)
A Riyadh Metro train travels through the Saudi capital. (SPA)

The Royal Commission for Riyadh City has signed contracts to procure and manufacture 94 new trains for the capital’s metro network, increasing its fleet to 277 from 183, with deliveries scheduled to begin in batches in 2028.

The new trains are expected to boost the network’s overall passenger capacity by 57%, with increases varying by line: 142% on the red line, 116% on the yellow line, 57% on the blue line, 27% on the orange line and 16% on the purple line. Additional capacity will be allocated according to ridership and projected demand.

The expansion comes as the Riyadh Metro has recorded about 275 million passenger trips since December 2024. Average monthly ridership in 2026 has risen by around 25% compared with the same period in 2025.

The investment is intended to accommodate anticipated growth in travel demand as Riyadh expands and prepares to host major international events, including Expo 2030 and the 2034 FIFA World Cup.

Germany’s Siemens and France’s Alstom are carrying out the contracts, which are worth more than $5 billion in total and cover train manufacturing, systems and equipment, maintenance, training and other technical and operational services.

The trains will be delivered in stages as manufacturing is completed, then undergo testing and operational trials before gradually entering service.

The investment is part of broader efforts to develop Riyadh’s transport infrastructure, including public transit, roads and intersections, to meet the needs of the capital’s growing population and urban expansion.


Copper Steadies as Dollar Strength Counters Chile Supply Worries

Stacks of copper cathodes sit inside Glencore's Canadian Copper Refinery in Montreal, Quebec, Canada on October 3, 2026. (Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV / AFP)
Stacks of copper cathodes sit inside Glencore's Canadian Copper Refinery in Montreal, Quebec, Canada on October 3, 2026. (Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV / AFP)
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Copper Steadies as Dollar Strength Counters Chile Supply Worries

Stacks of copper cathodes sit inside Glencore's Canadian Copper Refinery in Montreal, Quebec, Canada on October 3, 2026. (Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV / AFP)
Stacks of copper cathodes sit inside Glencore's Canadian Copper Refinery in Montreal, Quebec, Canada on October 3, 2026. (Photo by ANDREJ IVANOV / AFP)

Copper prices ‌held nearly steady on Tuesday as a strong US dollar countered support from supply concerns in top producer Chile.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was little changed at $14,628.00 a metric ton by 0700 GMT, after hitting a two-week high in the previous session, said Reuters.

The most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange edged 0.2% higher to 110,990 yuan a ton.

The dollar took ‌a breather ‌but hovered near an 18-month high, ‌underpinned ⁠by safe-haven demand ⁠amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Supply concerns remained in focus after Chilean state miner Codelco partially suspended operations at its El Teniente mine following a landslide, ⁠while Antofagasta's Centinela copper mine and two ‌unions were set ‌to resume talks as a strike continued.

Copper inventories outside ‌the United States have declined in recent ‌months as shipments were diverted to the country ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper imports.

Analysts at BMI raised their average copper price forecast for 2026 ‌to $13,500 per ton from $12,700, citing tariff-related market distortions and persistent supply constraints.

"For the ⁠remainder ⁠of the year, prices are set to oscillate sharply in response to tariff-policy headlines, with the eventual US decision likely to dictate near-term price direction," BMI said.

Among LME metals, aluminium was down 0.4% at $3,039 after touching an eight-month low on Monday, zinc lost 0.7% to $3,729.50, lead rose 0.4% to $1,891, nickel gained 0.2% to $15,640 and tin eased 0.6% to $52,870.

Among SHFE metals, aluminium slipped 1.1%, zinc fell 1.7%, lead rose 1.3%, nickel dipped 0.1% and tin dropped 0.4%.


IMF Forecasts Saudi Economy to Grow 7.9% in 2027

General view of the Kingdom Tower in downtown Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 12, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS
General view of the Kingdom Tower in downtown Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 12, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS
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IMF Forecasts Saudi Economy to Grow 7.9% in 2027

General view of the Kingdom Tower in downtown Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 12, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS
General view of the Kingdom Tower in downtown Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, October 12, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the Saudi economy to record strong growth of 7.9 percent in 2027, reflecting a projected recovery in energy production and exports, as well as the gradual restoration of regional trade flows as war-related disruptions ease and the Strait of Hormuz reopens under the report’s baseline scenario.

The forecast highlights the Saudi economy’s ability to regain momentum after the pressures caused this year by disruptions to energy production and transportation. Saudi Arabia is expected to benefit from its diversified oil export routes and infrastructure, which allow part of its exports to be shipped via the Red Sea rather than through the Strait of Hormuz.

In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected that Saudi Arabia’s economy would contract by 3.3 percent in 2026 before rebounding to 7.9 percent growth in 2027.

In its April forecasts, the Fund had expected growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 and 4.5 percent in 2027, reflecting a significant shift in projections due to developments in the conflict and assumptions regarding the resumption of economic activity.

Export Infrastructure Supports Economic Resilience

Saudi Arabia benefits from alternative oil-export outlets, most notably the East-West Pipeline, which transports crude oil from the Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu with a capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day.

The Kingdom aims to raise pipeline capacity to 10 million barrels per day, enhancing the flexibility of its export system in the face of maritime disruptions.

These alternatives strengthen Saudi Arabia’s ability to mitigate the impact of shipping interruptions on oil flows. Under the IMF’s forecasts, the gradual recovery of production and exports is expected to support economic activity next year.

Gulf Recovery Driven by Rebound in Energy Production

The strong growth forecast is not limited to Saudi Arabia. The IMF also expects several Gulf economies to recover sharply in 2027 as production, exports, and logistics services rebound.
Projected growth rates for 2027 are Qatar 18.8%, Kuwait 17.1%, Bahrain 13.9%, the United Arab Emirates 7.7% and Oman 2.2%.

These forecasts follow severe pressure during 2026, when the IMF expects Kuwait’s economy to contract by 16.7%, Qatar’s economy by 15.6%, Bahrain’s economy by 11.3% and the UAE economy to contract by 3.9%.

Meanwhile, Oman is expected to achieve growth of 4.1 percent in 2026.

The IMF’s baseline scenario assumes that the Strait of Hormuz will begin reopening in March 2027, with a broad return to pre-war conditions by October 2027. This would allow energy flows, shipping, insurance services, and payment systems to recover gradually.

The pace of this recovery remains dependent on the course of the conflict and the stability of maritime navigation. Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia’s diversified export routes provide an important buffer, enhancing the economy’s capacity to absorb shocks and restore growth as regional conditions improve.