UK Economy Slows Amid Political Unrest, Middle East War

A person cycles through parched parkland in Birmingham, Britain, 13 August 2026. (EPA)
A person cycles through parched parkland in Birmingham, Britain, 13 August 2026. (EPA)
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UK Economy Slows Amid Political Unrest, Middle East War

A person cycles through parched parkland in Birmingham, Britain, 13 August 2026. (EPA)
A person cycles through parched parkland in Birmingham, Britain, 13 August 2026. (EPA)

Britain's economy slowed in the second quarter, the national statistics office reported Thursday, saying that output remained "robust" despite domestic political unrest and fallout from the US-Iran war.

Gross domestic product increased 0.4 percent in the April-June period after GDP expansion of 0.6 percent in the first quarter, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said in a statement.

Keir Starmer resigned as British prime minister in late June and was replaced around one month later by Andy Burnham, as the Labour government was overtaken in opinion polls by the hard-right party Reform UK.

Following Thursday's data, the country's new finance minister, John Healey, said that under Burnham, Labour was a "hands-on government, putting British interests first -- giving breathing space to those feeling the strain, making our country more resilient and bringing hope back".

Struggling already with elevated inflation, millions of Britons have seen their situation worsen after the US-Iran war sent energy costs soaring.

"I know people are worried about the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on their cost of living, which has been too high for too long and it has added pressure on British businesses," Healey added in a statement.

- World Cup boost -

The latest GDP data showed that output from the services sector grew 0.5 percent in the second quarter, and construction also expanded while production flattened.

"Growth (overall) slowed in the second quarter of the year, following a strong start to 2026, but remained relatively robust," said ONS director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown.

"Services were once again the main driver of growth," she added.

The second quarter had a strong finish, growing 0.3 percent in June after zero expansion in May and a slight dip in April, the ONS said.

It cited the recent football World Cup "as a reason for an increase in turnover in June... by businesses in industries such as wholesale, food and beverage serving activities, publishing activities, television production and advertising".

But Stuart Morrison, research manager at the British Chambers of Commerce, said in a statement that "the headline figures shouldn't disguise the cocktail of cost pressures choking long-term business growth".

He said Healey's first budget, due October 28, "must be a game changer for stronger, sustainable growth", adding that Britain needed "measures that boost trade, investment and productivity".

Burnham has so far concentrated on easing the cost of living for households, with tax on their electricity bills set to be removed this winter.

The Bank of England recently warned that British inflation was set to rise as the Middle East war keeps energy prices high.



Türkiye Central Bank Raises End-2026 Inflation Forecast to 28%, Leaves Target Unchanged

 Stray cats wait next to a fisherman at Karakoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (AP)
Stray cats wait next to a fisherman at Karakoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (AP)
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Türkiye Central Bank Raises End-2026 Inflation Forecast to 28%, Leaves Target Unchanged

 Stray cats wait next to a fisherman at Karakoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (AP)
Stray cats wait next to a fisherman at Karakoy sea promenade in Istanbul, Türkiye, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. (AP)

Türkiye's central bank raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2026 to 28% from 26% but left its interim inflation target for the same period at 24%, Governor Fatih Karahan said on Thursday.

Presenting the central bank's quarterly inflation report ‌in Istanbul, Karahan said ‌the bank kept ‌its ⁠interim inflation target for ⁠end-2027 steady at 15% and the interim target for end-2028 stayed at 9%.

"The CBRT will ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path in line with ⁠the interim targets," Karahan said.

He said ‌the upward ‌revision of the end-2026 forecast was "driven ‌by the increase in the ‌assumption for Turkish lira-denominated import prices in view of the developments in prices of diesel oil, natural gas, and some ‌other commodities".

Last month, the central bank left its key interest ⁠rate ⁠at 37%, as expected, keeping borrowing costs unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting as it monitors the inflationary impact of the Iran war.

Turkish consumer price inflation rose to 1.78% month-on-month in July while annual inflation dipped slightly from a month earlier to 31.75%.


Gold Off Two-month Peak as Traders Seek Inflation Cues

Gold bars and 'sovereign pounds' coins at Bird & Co. in Hatton Garden, London (Reuters)
Gold bars and 'sovereign pounds' coins at Bird & Co. in Hatton Garden, London (Reuters)
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Gold Off Two-month Peak as Traders Seek Inflation Cues

Gold bars and 'sovereign pounds' coins at Bird & Co. in Hatton Garden, London (Reuters)
Gold bars and 'sovereign pounds' coins at Bird & Co. in Hatton Garden, London (Reuters)

Gold edged lower on Thursday, after touching a more than two-month high earlier in the session, as traders paused after a rally fueled by cooling US inflation, with attention turning to an upcoming producer price report for clues to prospects of near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,383.53 per ounce ‌by 0601 GMT, after ‌jumping about 1% to its highest since ‌June ⁠5. US gold futures ⁠for December delivery fell 0.6% at $4,440.80.

"Gold is in consolidation mode today after its post-CPI gains, with near-term expectations of a Fed rate hike being dialed back another notch," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

"Traders appear content to wait for confirmation from the upcoming PPI data before committing to the next leg higher."

Prices have ⁠risen over 8% so far this month, ‌as traders scale back US interest rate ‌hikes bets amid recent softer economic data.

On the geopolitical front, Iran and ‌the US remain at loggerheads over efforts to agree on a ‌permanent end to the war, according to a senior Iranian source, who said there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June.

On monetary policy, Fed policymakers are likely ‌to feel little fresh urgency to raise interest rates next month after data on Wednesday showed inflation ⁠cooled on ⁠a year-over-year basis for a second straight month.

The consumer price index rose 3.4% in the 12 months through July, down from 3.5% in June, in line with economists' expectations. Traders are now pricing in only a 40% chance of a hike at the September meeting, down from about 54% seen a week before, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Lower rates tend to support gold by lowering the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

In other metals, spot silver lost about 0.3% to $65.09 per ounce, having climbed to its highest since June 22 in the previous session.

Platinum lost 0.8% at $1,741.96, and palladium fell 0.9% at $1,357.29.


Oil Eases as Weaker Demand Outlook Counters Mideast Supply Concerns

Oil pumpjacks are pictured in an Ecopetrol oil field in Barrancabermeja, Colombia October 11, 2024. (Reuters)
Oil pumpjacks are pictured in an Ecopetrol oil field in Barrancabermeja, Colombia October 11, 2024. (Reuters)
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Oil Eases as Weaker Demand Outlook Counters Mideast Supply Concerns

Oil pumpjacks are pictured in an Ecopetrol oil field in Barrancabermeja, Colombia October 11, 2024. (Reuters)
Oil pumpjacks are pictured in an Ecopetrol oil field in Barrancabermeja, Colombia October 11, 2024. (Reuters)

Oil prices eased on Thursday after gains in previous sessions, as attention turned to expectations of weaker global oil demand this year, while there was no progress on opening the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Brent futures slipped 42 cents, or 0.47%, to $88.56 a barrel by 0405 GMT. US, trimming gains made over the previous six sessions.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 55 cents, or 0.66%, to $82.72, after advancing over the past five sessions.

A senior Iranian source said ‌on Wednesday there ‌had been no progress in talks to revive an interim ‌deal ⁠agreed in June ⁠and define a timeframe to implement it.

"There was little in the way of fresh developments between the US and Iran, with both sides remaining in a deadlock," said ING analysts in a note on Thursday.

"Meanwhile, the latest large drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk port appears to have spared oil infrastructure, with no reports of damage to oil terminals as of now."

With no change in the prospect of reopening the ⁠Strait of Hormuz, the key factor that had driven prices ‌higher over the past week, attention turned to ‌the demand outlook following a surprise build in US crude stocks and lower consumption forecasts from ‌OPEC and the International Energy Agency.

US commercial crude oil inventories posted their ‌largest weekly gain since January 2023 as exports slumped, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday.

Crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, their highest since June 5, the EIA said, compared with analysts' ‌expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.4-million-barrel draw.

On the same day, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ⁠lowered its world ⁠oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day in its monthly oil market report.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency said it expects a 1.6 million bpd contraction in consumption this year, down from a forecast of 1 million bpd last month, with demand curtailed by higher prices and restricted supply due to the US-Israeli war with Iran.

Still, the deadlocked talks between Iran and the US to end the war in the region have kept a floor under prices.

"The safety situation for navigation in these waters has further deteriorated, forcing vessels to turn off their signals, which reduces transparency in shipping and makes it more difficult for the market to track and assess actual supply levels," analysts at Haitong Futures said in a note.