Washington: Julian Barnes, Dustin Volz
Iran has grown more confident in its ability to attack targets in the Middle East and appears determined to continue the conflict for months to frustrate the United States, according to US intelligence reports in recent weeks.
In many respects, the assessments reflect what has been observable on the ground as fighting erupted again after a period of relative calm. In the past week, Iran targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz and American troops in the region, and US forces struck inside Iran, killing military personnel and civilians.
The new exchanges have been limited so far. But the intelligence reports, according to people who have read them, suggest that Iran’s hard-line government might be contemplating a significant escalation.
Iran has emerged from months of the on-again, off-again war with a far better understanding of its military strengths and is more sure of its capabilities, according to officials briefed on the intelligence.
The reports, some current and former officials said, suggest that any agreement to fully end the war will be hard to reach. There are few signs that Iran is ready to make any sort of deal with the United States, content to exacerbate US President Donald Trump’s political problems ahead of the US midterm elections, according to some officials.
Trump, for now, is not pursuing negotiations and has said he believes he can apply economic pressure on Iran that would force Tehran to make concessions on its control of the strait and perhaps, eventually, its nuclear program. But in the short term, US economic sanctions are likely to continue to provoke escalation, according to officials who have read the intelligence reports.
In the coming weeks, Iran could take actions akin to what it did in July, according to US officials. At that time, Iran attacked American military bases in the Middle East, killing three Americans in Jordan; struck shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; and struck infrastructure in Kuwait and elsewhere.
US officials also believe that Iran-linked hackers were most likely responsible for cyberattacks on more than 100 water systems throughout the United States in late July. Though there were no indications any system was degraded in a way that made water unsafe to drink, the attacks in some cases led to disruptions that required manual overrides and precautionary boil-water advisories.
Current and former officials said the hackers have also shown interest in attacking American oil and gas infrastructure, though those systems are generally seen as harder to penetrate. It is not clear whether any energy systems have been breached.
There are signs that Iran-linked hackers may have regrouped in recent months after sustaining some losses at the start of the war, according to current and former US officials.
Even absent serious disruptions, cyberattacks are likely to remain an appealing way for Iran to seek to undermine public support in the United States for an already unpopular war, former intelligence officials and security experts said.
Alex Orleans, a former US government cybersecurity contractor who specializes in tracking Iranian hacking groups, said Iran’s cyberoperators probably feel emboldened. “Even if such attacks fail to meaningfully unsettle the American public, they can still play into a broader effort to exhaust domestic patience with this administration’s handling of the conflict,” he said.
At a news briefing on Thursday, Vice President JD Vance appeared to acknowledge that such attacks could further erode support for a conflict that has no clear end in sight. He sought to downplay the threat to Americans, but said the Trump administration expected Tehran to continue to “try to do a lot of things” to target the United States.
“If you look at the Iranian ability to disrupt the normal lives of Americans, I think it is quite limited,” Vance said, responding to a reporter’s question about cyberattacks. “It’s not zero, but it’s quite limited. I’d be much more worried about cyberattacks from other actors.”
Trump predicted a quick and decisive victory as US and Israeli forces launched the war on Feb. 28. After waves of punishing attacks, the president’s critics say it is painfully clear that the Trump administration underestimated Iran’s resilience.
“Iranians are feeling pretty bullish about their position,” said Representative Jason Crow, Democrat of Colorado and a member of the Intelligence Committee. “They have taken substantial damage, but that has always been built into their system. They understand they can take damage, and they are playing a much longer game here.”
Crow declined to comment on classified assessments, but he said the Iranians believe that they are in a stronger position for several reasons. First, he said, Iran’s formerly splintered leadership is now more united, and the internal opposition has been silenced. Iran also continues to have a stockpile of missiles and drones.
Iran’s leadership also appears to have a more precise understanding of how to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz, which carried one-fifth of the world’s oil before the war.
“They have always known the strait was a big bargaining chip, but have come to realize to a greater degree the leverage that gives them,” Crow said.
Others briefed on the reports said Iran probably believes that the US military will be hard pressed to mount major new strikes as its munitions stockpiles dwindle.
And there are signs that Iran is intent to drag out the conflict until at least the midterms, current and former officials said.
Iran, according to officials, understands that the war — and the high gas prices that closing the strait has caused — is politically damaging to Trump and the Republican Party.
“The Iranians think they have maximum leverage,” said Representative Josh Gottheimer, Democrat of New Jersey. “So, from their perspective, why not keep sticking it to the president?”
There are indications that Iran is seeking to spread propaganda that would undermine Trump electorally, as it did during the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections.
The New York Times
