Dollar Holds Gains, Yen Slips as Middle East Energy Shock Deepens

14 January 2020, Iraq, Baghdad: US dollar banknotes are pictured at a currency exchange service provider. (dpa)
14 January 2020, Iraq, Baghdad: US dollar banknotes are pictured at a currency exchange service provider. (dpa)
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Dollar Holds Gains, Yen Slips as Middle East Energy Shock Deepens

14 January 2020, Iraq, Baghdad: US dollar banknotes are pictured at a currency exchange service provider. (dpa)
14 January 2020, Iraq, Baghdad: US dollar banknotes are pictured at a currency exchange service provider. (dpa)

The dollar held near its highest levels of the past week in Asian trading on Friday as renewed fears of energy supply disruptions in the Middle East pushed up bond yields and oil prices.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading flat at 99.084, after strengthening to its highest level since September 7 during the previous session. The rise followed the release of data showing US producer prices increased 0.4% in August, meeting market expectations as energy prices rebounded during the month.

"The safe-haven US dollar gained on risk-aversion flows, helped by higher energy prices that have lifted the chance of a Fed hike next week to 70%," said ‌Tony Sycamore, market ‌analyst at IG in Sydney.

Energy prices snapped a five-day gaining streak, with Brent crude ‌futures ⁠down 0.6% at $106.99 ⁠a barrel in Asian trade.

But both major benchmarks remained above the $100 mark earlier this week, with WTI futures surging across the threshold on Thursday for the first time since May 21.

Against the yen, the US dollar was down 0.2% at 154.105 yen and on track for its second consecutive week of declines, while the euro slipped 0.2% to 178.99 yen after the European Central Bank hiked interest rates on Thursday for the second time this year.

The Japanese currency regained ⁠some strength after data released on Friday showed wholesale inflation rose 7.6% in August ‌from a year earlier, bolstering the case for a rate ‌hike this month.

The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates next week, most likely by 25 basis points, and ‌may signal faster future tightening if price pressures heighten risks of an inflation overshoot, four sources familiar with ‌its thinking told Reuters.

The kiwi dollar was up 0.5% at $0.5827, retracing a selloff on Thursday that has put the currency on track for its third week of declines. New Zealand's 10-year government bond yields rose by 15.5 basis points to 5.06% on Friday, extending the biggest two-day jump in borrowing costs since last year's "Liberation Day" selloff.

"New Zealand seems to have been hit harder ‌than most in the latest leg of the bond market sell-off," said Thomas Mathews, head of markets for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics in Wellington.

The Australian dollar ⁠was up 0.2% at $0.7167.

Both ⁠the euro and the British pound were level against the dollar at $1.1609 and $1.3503, respectively.

PRESSURE BUILDS ON FEDERAL RESERVE

Markets are awaiting the release of US CPI later on Friday, one of the last major economic data points released before the Federal Reserve meets next week.

Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 71.1% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the US central bank's next two-day meeting ending on September 16, compared with a 61.2% chance in the previous trading session, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Fixed-income markets remained uneasy after the US Treasury Department tripled the size of its long-dated bond repurchase, with a gauge of bond volatility rising to its highest level in a month. The yield on US 10-year government bonds was up 1.5 basis points at 4.957%.

"10-year US Treasury yields are within striking distance of 5%, as the markets have reassessed the Fed's path higher while term premium is appropriately hovering near pre-GFC levels," Barclays analysts wrote. "We remain of the view that bonds are not cheap yet and catalysts for a rally do not appear imminent."

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was down 0.2% at $77,094.41 while ether was 0.1% lower at $2,457.96.



ECB Policymakers Open Door to More Rate Hikes on Energy Risk

The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo
The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo
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ECB Policymakers Open Door to More Rate Hikes on Energy Risk

The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo
The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo

Two European Central Bank policymakers opened the door on Friday to further interest rate increases if a war-fueled rise in energy prices continues and pushes up other prices in the euro zone.

The ECB raised borrowing costs on Thursday for the second time this year and sources told Reuters policymakers expect further policy tightening in the months ahead, with a move possible as early ⁠as October.

The central ⁠bankers of Germany and Estonia acknowledged this prospect on Friday although they both stressed any move would depend on how oil and gas prices develop.

Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said the ECB might need to raise rates to a level that mildly curbs the economy.

"I will not exclude that we have to ⁠go into the mild restrictive territory, but as I said, it's very much dependent on how the energy prices evolve, how the price picture is evolving over the course of maybe the next month," he told CNBC in an interview, according to Reuters.

The euro zone central bank increased its key rate from 2.25% to 2.50%, bringing it to the upper end of its estimated neutral range, which neither stimulates nor slows down the economy.

Money markets have started pricing in at least another three ECB rate hikes over the next ⁠year.

Ülo Kaasik, ⁠Estonia's central bank governor, said such expectations were "understandable" given the latest increase in fuel prices and the risk that food would also become more expensive.

"Recent developments in energy markets, for example, indicate the possibility that the price increase for gas and fuels will be much larger and last longer than expected in the forecast," he said in a blog post.

Slovenia's central bank governor Primož Dolenc also warned in a blog post about "rising energy and electricity costs in the autumn and winter months".

The ECB on Thursday slightly increased its projections for growth and inflation but these did not capture the latest energy price moves.


UK Economy Surprisingly Grows in July on AI Boost

Tourists walk in central London, Britain, 10 September 2026.  EPA/ANDY RAIN
Tourists walk in central London, Britain, 10 September 2026. EPA/ANDY RAIN
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UK Economy Surprisingly Grows in July on AI Boost

Tourists walk in central London, Britain, 10 September 2026.  EPA/ANDY RAIN
Tourists walk in central London, Britain, 10 September 2026. EPA/ANDY RAIN

Britain's economy grew unexpectedly in July, official data showed Friday, driven higher by the artificial intelligence sector.

Gross domestic product expanded 0.4 percent in the month, building on growth of 0.3 percent in June, AFP quoted the Office for National Statistics as saying.

A consensus of analyst forecasts had been for zero growth in July.

GDP output in the three months to the end of July also grew by 0.4 percent, the ONS said.

The data hands a boost to UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham and his finance minister John Healey ahead of the Labour government's budget update next month.

"Ongoing strength in the services sector was only partially offset by falls in both production and construction" in the three months to end-July, Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said in a statement.

"Within services, computer programming was the largest contributor, continuing the strong growth seen throughout the year, with evidence that businesses involved with AI and related technologies helped to boost this sector," she added.


Gulf Tourist Arrivals Top 75 Million in 2025

GCC tourism ministers meet in Bahrain (GCC)
GCC tourism ministers meet in Bahrain (GCC)
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Gulf Tourist Arrivals Top 75 Million in 2025

GCC tourism ministers meet in Bahrain (GCC)
GCC tourism ministers meet in Bahrain (GCC)

More than 75 million tourists visited Gulf Cooperation Council countries in 2025 as the region’s tourism sector continued to expand, recording an annual growth of 4.8%.

Around 20 million tourists also traveled between GCC states during the year, up 3.6% from 2024, highlighting the growing appeal of destinations within the Gulf.

That momentum continued into 2026. Saudi Arabia welcomed about 3.2 million tourists from other GCC countries in the first half of the year, reflecting increased regional travel and rising demand for Gulf destinations.

The kingdom received about 30 million international tourists in 2025, accounting for nearly 40% of all visitors to GCC countries.

Gulf tourism gathers momentum

Tourism spending across the GCC exceeded $131 billion in 2025, up from about $120 billion a year earlier, GCC Secretary General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi said.

The sector’s direct and indirect contribution to GCC economies reached around $254 billion, equivalent to 11.4% of gross domestic product.

Albudaiwi was speaking at the 10th meeting of GCC ministers responsible for tourism in Manama. The meeting was chaired by Bahrain’s Tourism Minister Fatima bint Jaafar Al Sairafi.

He said the figures reflected the progress GCC countries had made in developing tourism and underscored the sector’s growing role in supporting economic growth and diversification.

Saudi Arabia took part in the meeting through Tourism Minister Ahmed Al Khateeb as part of Bahrain’s presidency of the GCC’s 46th session.

Albudaiwi said the figures “do not merely represent indicators of growth” but reflect significant economic and development gains.

The next phase, he said, would require GCC countries to build on those results and strengthen the sector’s ability to protect and sustain its gains amid changing conditions, in line with the GCC Tourism Strategy 2023-2030.

Deeper integration between Gulf destinations

Albudaiwi said the next phase would focus on three main areas: strengthening the tourism sector’s resilience and preparedness, accelerating joint GCC initiatives and projects, and deepening tourism integration among member states.

The measures are intended to encourage travel within the GCC and capitalize on the diversity of tourism offerings across the Gulf.

Ministers discussed a joint GCC action plan to accelerate the tourism sector’s recovery, as well as joint promotional efforts and the development of Gulf tourism packages and programs.

They also considered ways to strengthen the GCC’s tourism presence in targeted international markets.

The meeting reviewed plans for a joint media strategy and a GCC tourism data and indicators dashboard. The initiatives are intended to improve data availability, strengthen performance measurement and help identify opportunities for growth.

Joint tourism initiatives

Ministers considered several initiatives to expand tourism cooperation and integration, including joint marketing campaigns and the exchange of expertise and knowledge on tourism data and statistics.

The meeting also discussed a unified tourist-guide license, common hotel-classification guidelines and the selection of the GCC Tourism Capital for 2027.

International cooperation and joint tourism activities and events were also on the agenda. The measures aim to support the development of an integrated Gulf tourism product and strengthen the region’s ability to attract visitors from international markets.

The meeting followed discussions at an extraordinary gathering of GCC tourism ministers in April, aimed at maintaining coordination among member states and improving the sector’s readiness to respond to changing conditions.

Saudi Arabia’s participation underscored its commitment to supporting joint GCC tourism efforts, coordinating priorities and advancing cooperation among member states to strengthen integration between Gulf destinations.