The second anniversary of the assassinations of former Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine exposed a grim reality facing Hezbollah inside Lebanon. It showed that the group has lost its network of domestic allies, as evidenced by the absence, for the first time in two decades, of figures who had been allied with the group before the 2024 war.
Two years after the assassinations, observers closely following the group's situation say Hezbollah is facing not only the challenge of rebuilding its capabilities and reorganizing its ranks, but also the erosion of the network of alliances it built over many years. A number of political forces appear to have reconsidered the value of maintaining ties with the group amid shifts in the balance of power domestically and regionally.
Among its most prominent former allies, the only one to attend the commemoration of Nasrallah was Suleiman Frangieh, head of the Marada Movement, who had been the group's candidate for the presidency before President Joseph Aoun was elected, along with leaders representing the Amal Movement, its partner in the Shiite duo.
Political Cover Unravels
Hezbollah succeeded in building a broad network of political alliances spanning most of Lebanon's sects and denominations after signing the 2006 memorandum of understanding with the Free Patriotic Movement. According to its opponents, this enabled the group to secure "political cover" for retaining its weapons and expanding its influence, eventually entrenching a parallel reality alongside state institutions.
But this network began to gradually unravel after the "Gaza Support" war, alongside the major military setback suffered by Hezbollah and the resulting change in its position within Lebanon's political equation. One of the most prominent signs of this unraveling was the distancing of key allies, foremost among them the Free Patriotic Movement on the Christian political scene, along with the declining presence of its allies among Sunni and Druze forces.
The distancing of Hezbollah's allies is not linked solely to the shift in the balance of power after the war, but also to the political and financial risks that have come to accompany close ties with Hezbollah. This comes amid US sanctions that have already targeted individuals and entities linked to the group or accused of supporting it, as well as threats to expand the sanctions to include other allies and political figures. This has prompted some of the group's allies to reassess their calculations, fearing that their relationship with Hezbollah could turn from a source of political influence into a source of costs and sanctions.
Transactional Alliances
Dr. Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, said the "cross-sectarian network" the group sought to build after entering politics was essentially "marginal." He noted that "the group long benefited from its military strength to build broad political influence and from presenting itself as a force capable of establishing a balance with Israel."
According to Khashan, the group spent years "entrenching a narrative based on taking the battle to the Galilee and portraying the existence of a military balance with Israel," a narrative that "a large part of the Shiite community believed." But the military strength Hezbollah had amassed, which was considered one of its main sources of influence in the region, "suffered an unprecedented blow during the war, which inevitably affected its political position."
Khashan told Asharq Al-Awsat that Hezbollah had, throughout the past period, "provided political cover for parties and forces in exchange for obtaining cover for its policies and weapons, making many of the alliances closer to transactional alliances and exchanges of interests than to firmly established political or ideological partnerships."
Khashan believes that "the collapse of the balance of power that allowed the group to manage these relationships will make rebuilding its previous network of alliances extremely difficult, particularly as political forces that once saw benefits and political protection in an alliance with it now face a different reality." He expects the Amal Movement, through new figures, to assume leadership of the Shiite community in the coming phase.
Alienation Likely to Increase
Political writer and editor-in-chief of the Janoubia website Ali Al-Amin, for his part, said Hezbollah, which had been "a center of attraction for allies and political patronage for many years, is no longer so today, three years after the start of the Support War. It currently lacks allies and is facing an internal and external siege, a reality that can be readily observed." Al-Amin added: "This was clearly evident at the commemoration of the assassinations of its two former secretaries-general, as most of those who had once competed to sit in the front row were absent."
Al-Amin told Asharq Al-Awsat that "this alienation is likely to increase," noting that "the issue of weapons is another matter related to Hezbollah's role and position, which does not appear to have understood what befell it, the Shiites, and Lebanon as a result of a major catastrophe. It remains committed to its role as an Iranian tool subject to the calculations set by the Supreme Leader from inside Iran."
Al-Amin concluded: "In light of the current political and security circumstances, and with the group continuing to use rhetoric that is at odds with reality and its new facts, it will find no resonance beyond its supporters. Its visits to some political forces have not produced anything that could be described as a restoration of its alliances or friendships. In practical terms, it is trying to climb out of the hole it fell into by falling into more holes, which will deepen its predicament and expose its inability to redefine its existence on the foundations of the state."
He added: "In view of all this, it cannot be expected that the group will repair its fractured alliances. Rather, they will continue to collapse and disappear."
