Stocks Fall Further as Oil Spike Fans Fresh Inflation Worries

Chart of German share price DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex) at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, October 6, 2026.  REUTERS/Staff
Chart of German share price DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex) at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, October 6, 2026. REUTERS/Staff
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Stocks Fall Further as Oil Spike Fans Fresh Inflation Worries

Chart of German share price DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex) at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, October 6, 2026.  REUTERS/Staff
Chart of German share price DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex) at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, October 6, 2026. REUTERS/Staff

Equities extended losses Thursday as inflation fears were stoked by a fresh jump in oil prices following a report that said Donald Trump was considering more Iran strikes ahead of next month's US midterm elections.

The selling tracked a retreat on Wall Street, where tech firms pulled back from recent gains, having weathered concerns over spiking borrowing costs and geopolitical uncertainty, said AFP.

Crude had started the week on the back foot thanks to signs that exports from the Middle East were heading back towards pre-war levels and that G7 nations had agreed to tap their stockpiles.

But anxiety returned as figures showed Tehran had increased strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Houthis rebutted claims they had lost key territory and top oil officials warned that global reserves were running worryingly low.

And on Wednesday, The Atlantic reported that the White House had asked the Pentagon to draw up options to hit sites in Iran ahead of the midterms, with Trump's Republicans in danger of losing both houses of Congress.

The article said the size and targets were still being discussed, but added that a wider operation could be in the works after the polls on November 3.

It added that even its proponents did not think the attacks would bring Tehran to talks or see Hormuz reopened, but hoped they would show strength leading into the vote.

Both main crude contracts rose more than one percent Thursday, with supplies also hit by the loss of more than 500,000 barrels of Gulf of Mexico output owing to producers shutting up shop as Tropical Storm Isaias approaches.

News that International Energy Agency members were ready to tap more oil from reserves did little to assuage worried traders.

The spike in oil prices fanned inflation fears again and put fresh upward pressure on government bond yields to multi-year highs.

After all three main indexes on Wall Street dropped -- with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq off records -- Asia followed suit.

Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei and Manila were all well down, though Shanghai edged up as investors returned from a week-long break.

- Tech earnings -

US Federal Reserve officials expect to hike interest rates again before the end of the year, according to minutes of their September meeting, where everyone agreed to the first increase since July 2023.

"With regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond the current meeting, most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end," the minutes said.

Several participants said they viewed the previous policy rate as not being adequately restrictive of economic activity, while they saw signs of renewed strength in the economy.

Investors are also gearing up for earnings season, with tech firms in the spotlight as questions over their profitability and elevated valuations swirl in light of the vast sums they have pumped into the AI sector.

"The headline earnings numbers may still be very strong. But with expectations elevated, valuations demanding and Treasury yields near multi-decade highs, the investment hurdle has become higher as well," warned Charu Chanana at Saxo Markets.

"This season should therefore be less about simply identifying who beat consensus by the largest amount," she said.

"The stronger businesses may be those that can deliver growth above expectations, convert that growth into cash, fund future investment from a strong balance sheet and still offer enough earnings upside to justify their valuation."

South Korean titan Samsung's shares fell as it forecast a more than 780 percent leap in third-quarter operating profit -- thanks to high memory chip prices -- but missed expectations.

It estimated July-September profit of 107.4 trillion won ($80.3 billion), up 782.5 percent on-year, but analysts on average had tipped 108.7 trillion won.

On currency markets, the euro remains wedged at lows last seen in June last year following another heavy fall amid worries about France's high debt levels, which have spooked bond markets.



Oil Rises as Middle East Supply Concerns Persist amid Shipping Attacks

Oil rigs operating in the Kern River field in California, USA (Reuters)
Oil rigs operating in the Kern River field in California, USA (Reuters)
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Oil Rises as Middle East Supply Concerns Persist amid Shipping Attacks

Oil rigs operating in the Kern River field in California, USA (Reuters)
Oil rigs operating in the Kern River field in California, USA (Reuters)

Oil prices rose on Thursday on persistent worries about supply from the key Middle East producing region amid an increase in attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, while the US cut output as a hurricane menaced offshore production.

Brent crude futures rose $2.28, or 2.28%, to $102.28 a barrel by 0427 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.66, or 1.88%, to $89.94.

Prices settled lower on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency agreed to accelerate the release of oil stocks and to prioritize diesel supplies under a plan launched in March, as governments seek to tackle record ‌fuel prices ‌and supply disruptions caused by the Iran war.

However, threats to oil shipping ‌in ⁠the Gulf and ⁠the Strait of Hormuz, which carried shipments equal to about 20% of global oil and fuel before the war, have increased in October as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran enters its eighth month, said Reuters.

Attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest last week of any week since the Iran war began as Gulf producers increased exports. The expansion of attacks is occurring as more crude is flowing out of the Gulf but at higher costs and risk to cargoes and crew.

In the latest attack, a ⁠tanker north of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles, causing casualties, the ‌United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said on Wednesday.

"The frequency ‌of Iranian attacks on ships is now at the highest point since the war began, and likely to ‌intensify further," said Saul Kavonic, MST Marquee head of energy.

He noted that "constrained product flows, extreme ‌logistics costs and high likelihood of Iranian escalation are keeping prices elevated".

ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said in a note on Thursday the IEA's oil release would likely consist of barrels that were already part of the group's original 400-million-barrel release plan at the start of the Middle East conflict, meaning it does not appear to represent an additional ‌draw on strategic inventories.

"Ultimately, strategic stock releases can augment supply flows temporarily but do not create new production capacity," Hynes said.

HURRICANE CONCERNS

Prices are also gaining ⁠on supply curtailments as ⁠a hurricane moves toward offshore production areas in the US, the world's biggest oil producer, causing companies to shut their platforms.

Shell and Chevron said on Wednesday they were curtailing offshore operations in the Gulf as Hurricane Isaias approached.

Overall, US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas producers had shut in about 25.08% of current oil production and 16.37% of current natural gas production as of Wednesday because of the storm, according to the Marine Minerals Administration.

Inventory data from the US, also the world's biggest oil consumer, were supportive for prices as crude stockpiles fell by a higher-than-expected amount, while diesel inventories declined slightly.

Crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended October 2, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.7 million-barrel decline.

Distillate fuel inventories, including diesel fuel and jet fuel, dropped by 42,000 barrels to 105.14 million barrels, well below their levels reported for this time of year in the past five years.


Iraq Devalues Dinar as Citizens Bear the Cost of Fiscal Strain

 A currency exchanger counts bundles of Iraqi dinar banknotes while serving a customer at a roadside exchange shop in Baghdad. (AP)
A currency exchanger counts bundles of Iraqi dinar banknotes while serving a customer at a roadside exchange shop in Baghdad. (AP)
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Iraq Devalues Dinar as Citizens Bear the Cost of Fiscal Strain

 A currency exchanger counts bundles of Iraqi dinar banknotes while serving a customer at a roadside exchange shop in Baghdad. (AP)
A currency exchanger counts bundles of Iraqi dinar banknotes while serving a customer at a roadside exchange shop in Baghdad. (AP)

Iraqis woke on Wednesday to a sharp loss in their currency’s value after authorities devalued the dinar to 1,520 per dollar from 1,320, triggering widespread anger and forcing markets and shops in several provinces to close.

The dollar, meanwhile, climbed to around 1,900 dinars on the parallel market.

The devaluation hit households already under financial strain, quickly driving up prices for food and imported goods.

Citizens feared higher costs would spread to transportation and services, particularly amid reports that the government was considering raising regular gasoline prices to 850 dinars per liter from 450 dinars per liter.

The move cuts the dinar’s value against the dollar by about 13%, increasing the cost of buying foreign currency for importers and individuals in an economy heavily dependent on imports to meet domestic demand.

Lawmaker Ahmed al-Shammari called on parliament’s leadership to convene an emergency session and summon the finance minister and central bank governor to discuss the consequences of the exchange rate increase and what he described as “market disruption.”

The Central Bank of Iraq said it would continue taking measures that it said served the economy and citizens and safeguarded the financial system’s soundness and stability. Public and political criticism nevertheless intensified, amid fears of another wave of price increases and an erosion of incomes.

The government of then-Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi devalued the dinar by nearly 20% in late 2020, setting the rate at 1,450 per dollar after collapsing oil prices triggered a severe financial crisis.

The government of former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani later strengthened the currency to 1,320 per dollar, a decision experts and analysts described as “political and ill-considered.”

The government of current Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi recently had to approve another devaluation under pressure from a crippling financial crisis. Iraq’s oil exports had been suspended for several months because of the US-Iranian war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Higher import costs, limited export gains

Economics professor Siham Youssef told Asharq Al-Awsat that devaluation would not deliver the same benefits in Iraq as in industrial economies. Iraq relies on oil to generate dollar earnings and heavily on imports to meet domestic demand.

A weaker currency “does not make exports more competitive as it does in industrial economies,” she said, because Iraq lacks a diversified export base that could benefit from the devaluation.

“The dollar becomes more expensive for importers, the cost of imported goods and production inputs rises, and some of that cost may be passed on to prices,” she added.

Converting dollar revenue into more dinars increases treasury receipts. But Youssef said that would only help resolve public finance problems if the additional funds were used to reduce the deficit and borrowing.

Making the economy absorb the cost of devaluation without addressing underlying fiscal imbalances could intensify inflationary pressures, she warned.

Reports of possible fuel price increases have compounded concerns over living costs. According to accounts circulating among lawmakers, regular gasoline could rise to 850 dinars per liter from 450, raising transport costs and adding pressure to goods and services prices.

Higher spending leaves a 43 trillion dinar deficit

The fiscal pressures extend beyond the exchange rate. The new draft budget sets expenditure at 217.239 trillion dinars ($142.9 billion) against revenue of 174.234 trillion dinars ($114.6 billion), leaving a deficit of 43.005 trillion dinars ($28.3 billion).

The draft assumes oil exports of 4 million barrels per day at $58 per barrel and an exchange rate of 1,500 dinars per dollar.

Youssef said the deficit’s decline from the 2023 budget reflected higher projected revenue, rather than spending restraint. Proposed expenditure rises 9.2%, while revenue increases 29.5%.

The government offsets a reduction in the assumed oil price to $58 from $70 by projecting higher exports of 4 million barrels per day. Oil revenue therefore remains dependent on prices, export volumes and the exchange rate, particularly amid regional turmoil and disruptions to Iraqi oil exports.

Budget needs oil well above $58 to break even

Youssef said the oil price needed to balance the budget was a key measure of the fragility of its assumptions.

According to the published tables, Iraq needs about $77.6 per barrel at an exchange rate of 1,500 dinars per dollar to cover all budget expenditure without a deficit. The required price rises to around $90.8 if revenue is calculated at 1,300 dinars per dollar.

The budget’s assumed oil price of $58 therefore falls well short of the level needed to balance public finances. Additional financing would still be required even if the draft’s production and export assumptions were met.

The gap “means that the budget, despite assuming an oil price of $58, still needs a much higher price to break even,” Youssef said.

Recurring commitments squeeze fiscal flexibility

Employee compensation, social welfare and debt servicing together account for about 54.4% of total spending, underscoring the weight of current expenditure.

Employee compensation totals 68.1 trillion dinars ($44.8 billion), social welfare 33 trillion dinars ($21.7 billion) and debt servicing 17 trillion dinars ($11.2 billion).

Youssef said those commitments limited the government’s ability to cut spending quickly when oil revenue fell. Rising debt servicing also reflected the growing cost of past borrowing.

Investment spending, meanwhile, falls 11.7% to 47.9 trillion dinars ($31.5 billion), raising questions about the budget’s capacity to support growth and diversify the economy.

Youssef said financing the 43 trillion dinar ($28.3 billion) deficit remained the central challenge. More domestic borrowing would raise future debt servicing costs at the expense of investment spending, she warned.

Oil dependence persists despite devaluation

Economist Ziad al-Hashimi said the devaluation and draft budget showed that the current crisis had not prompted a fundamental reconsideration of public spending.

In a post on X, he said the government had raised expenditure despite financial pressures and a lower assumed oil price of $58 per barrel. Operating expenditure remained high at 78% of the budget, leaving 22% for investment.

Hashimi pointed to continued expansion in government hiring and contract employment, rather than efforts to rein in the government workforce and operating expenditure. Those costs consume about 78% of the budget, leaving investment spending less able to support growth.

Moving the exchange rate to 1,520 dinars per dollar gives the treasury more dinars for its dollar revenue, “but out of citizens’ pockets,” he said. It does not address the underlying fiscal imbalance: the deficit still amounts to about 20% of total expenditure.

Oil revenue remains about 145 trillion dinars ($95.4 billion) out of total receipts of 174 trillion dinars ($114.5 billion), or roughly 83%, leaving public finances highly exposed to fluctuations in oil prices and exports.


Stocks Slide as Oil Climbs on Mideast Flareup

FILE PHOTO: A maze of crude oil pipes and valves is pictured during a tour by the Department of Energy at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Freeport, Texas, US June 9, 2016.  REUTERS/Richard Carson/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A maze of crude oil pipes and valves is pictured during a tour by the Department of Energy at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Freeport, Texas, US June 9, 2016. REUTERS/Richard Carson/File Photo
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Stocks Slide as Oil Climbs on Mideast Flareup

FILE PHOTO: A maze of crude oil pipes and valves is pictured during a tour by the Department of Energy at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Freeport, Texas, US June 9, 2016.  REUTERS/Richard Carson/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A maze of crude oil pipes and valves is pictured during a tour by the Department of Energy at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in Freeport, Texas, US June 9, 2016. REUTERS/Richard Carson/File Photo

Oil prices rose Wednesday on fresh concerns about Middle East supplies following a warning that Iran appeared to be stepping up attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, weighing on stock markets.

Crude futures had steadied Tuesday, helping Wall Street to fresh highs, with a large amount of the support coming from a rush back into the AI trade that saw chip titan Nvidia push towards a $6-trillion market value.

But Wall Street stocks pulled back at the opening bell, with a rise in bond yields on US government bonds to fresh 24-year highs as investors worried about inflation and interest rates.

"Rising Treasury yields and oil prices are creating renewed pressure after stocks received some relief from both fronts to start the week," said analysts at Briefing.com.

"In Europe, where there is a lower representation of AI-related names, investors are taking a more cautious stance," noted Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

"Oil prices remain above $100 a barrel and the inflation risks are clear to see," he added.

Figures have shown Tehran increasing strikes on tankers in the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

UK Maritime Trade Operations on Tuesday said there had been nine attacks this month, representing half of the September total in the waterway and the Gulf combined.

However US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Iran has "lost complete control" of the Strait of Hormuz.

"There's almost as much oil flowing out now as there was before this conflict began," he told reporters during a visit to Athens.

Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone, said "reports of increased flows across the (Mideast) region have offered some downside pressure on crude, but this has been offset by varying reports around the scale of attacks on vessels moving through the Strait".

"For now, the market remains highly sensitive to headlines and geopolitical risk," he added.

Indian stocks slipped and the rupee steadied Wednesday as the Indian central bank hiked interest rates for the first time in more than three years.

The euro fell heavily versus the dollar for a second time this week as worries about France's high debt levels spook bond markets.

Marine Le Pen, frontrunner in the race to be France's next president, said Tuesday she would implement 140 billion euros ($157 billion) in cost savings by 2032 if elected next year, warning that without change France was "heading towards default" on its debt.

The pledge "has helped ease bond yields" in France even if "pushing through that level of cuts... would be a hugely difficult task", said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club.