As war reshapes energy flows across the region, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is forecasting a strong recovery for Saudi Arabia's economy in 2027, with growth projected at 7.9 percent, driven by renewed momentum in production and exports as disruptions to shipping ease. Compared with Gulf economies more exposed to disruptions in transit through the Strait of Hormuz, this forecast rests on Saudi Arabia's diversified oil export routes, which help cushion the impact of the shock.
The IMF has also revised its outlook for the Saudi economy in 2026, projecting a smaller contraction than in its previous forecasts. The trajectory of the recovery will therefore depend on how long the disruptions persist and how quickly energy and trade flows return to normal.
The IMF's forecasts reflect both the scale of the shock facing regional economies and the recovery expected as its effects subside. In its World Economic Outlook report, titled Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices, the IMF projects that the economies of the Middle East and Central Asia will contract by 0.3 percent in 2026, followed by growth of 6.3 percent in 2027.
Compared with its April estimates, the IMF lowered its 2026 forecast by 2.2 percentage points while raising its 2027 projection by 1.7 percentage points. The revisions reflect an assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed longer than previously expected, intensifying pressure on regional economies this year but setting the stage for a stronger recovery once it reopens and production, exports and transportation resume.
Under this scenario, the IMF expects GDP to contract by 16.7 percent in Kuwait, 16 percent in Iraq, 15.6 percent in Qatar and 11.3 percent in Bahrain in 2026. In 2027, all four economies are projected to rebound sharply, with Iraq growing by 19 percent, Qatar by 18.8 percent, Kuwait by 17.1 percent and Bahrain by 13.9 percent, as production, exports and logistics return to normal operations.
Saudi Arabia's Economic Outlook
By contrast, the IMF expects the disruptions to have a relatively less severe impact on Saudi Arabia. It has revised its estimate for the Saudi economy's contraction in 2026 to 3.3 percent, compared with 5 percent in its July forecast and 6.4 percent in April. At the same time, it raised its forecast for Saudi economic growth in 2027 to 7.9 percent, up from 2.4 percent in its July update and 3.4 percent in April. The Ministry of Finance, meanwhile, expects stronger growth of 12.8 percent, according to its pre-budget statement. Although the estimates differ in magnitude, they reflect optimism about the recovery next year, amid hopes that production, exports and trade will regain momentum as shipping disruptions ease.
This outlook is consistent with World Bank projections. In its October report on the economic outlook for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, the bank anticipated a strong rebound in regional growth in 2027, forecasting expansion of 7.8 percent for the region's economies, excluding Iran, if the conflict subsides by the end of 2026. It attributed the recovery primarily to the resumption of hydrocarbon production and exports as trade routes reopen and energy flows gradually normalize. In Saudi Arabia, the bank noted that the East-West Pipeline had enabled exports to be rerouted to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, helping the Kingdom limit the impact of disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The IMF's projected contraction for the Saudi economy this year is smaller than the Ministry of Finance's estimate of a 3.6 percent decline in real GDP in 2026. The recovery outlook also aligns with the IMF's findings during its July Article IV consultations with Saudi Arabia, when it highlighted the economy's resilience to disruptions in oil and trade flows, supported by diversified energy and logistics infrastructure and the ability to reroute shipments.
Oil Export Routes
Against this backdrop, Saudi Arabia is benefiting from multiple oil export routes and working to strengthen its ability to deliver supplies to global markets through the Red Sea. Energy Minister and Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced a target of increasing oil export capacity to approximately 10 million barrels per day within two to three years by upgrading the East-West Pipeline and expanding its associated infrastructure. He also pointed to the possibility of temporarily converting a gas pipeline to transport oil, adding approximately 1.2 million barrels per day of capacity within seven to eight weeks before returning it to its original use to meet summer demand.
These measures strengthen the Kingdom's ability to diversify its export outlets, while the IMF's 2027 forecasts assume that production, exports and trade will return to normal as shipping disruptions ease.
In this context, data from Kpler showed that Saudi crude oil exports rose to 6.67 million barrels per day in September, reaching their highest level in seven months and returning to prewar levels. This reflects renewed momentum in the Kingdom's oil flows, supported by increased exports through the Strait of Hormuz since September, alongside the benefits of diversified export outlets.
Alongside the anticipated recovery, credit rating agency Moody's had forecast that spending restraint and a reprioritization of government investments would support a fiscal recovery in 2027 and help the Kingdom preserve fiscal space to continue its economic diversification projects. The agency noted that prolonged trade disruptions and additional spending had limited the fiscal improvement it previously expected, while disruptions to strategic maritime shipping routes could persist until mid-2027, potentially affecting oil production.
As for economic indicators, the IMF expects inflation in Saudi Arabia to reach 1.9 percent in 2026 and rise to 2.2 percent in 2027. It also projects a current account deficit equivalent to 3.5 percent of GDP this year, narrowing to 1.3 percent next year.
International Monetary and Financial Committee Meeting
These forecasts come as the repercussions of the war and its effects on growth, trade and energy flows dominate the agenda of the IMF and World Bank Group Annual Meetings, taking place in Bangkok from October 12 to 18.
Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan is leading the Kingdom's delegation to the meetings and chairing a meeting of the IMF's International Monetary and Financial Committee, which is discussing the global economic outlook, risks to growth, economic policy priorities and the Fund's role in helping member countries address current challenges. These discussions are particularly significant given the differing effects of the conflict on regional economies, from pressures caused by disruptions to production and trade to opportunities for recovery as energy flows and exports resume.
Ultimately, the trajectory of Saudi Arabia's recovery in 2027 will remain tied to how quickly energy and trade flows are restored. Meanwhile, diversified export outlets and non-oil activities, together with the reprioritization of spending and investment, provide support for the economy's ability to overcome the repercussions of regional disruptions.
