Oil Rises on Middle East Supply Fears, US Inventory Drawdowns

A pumpjack operates after sunrise in Kern County, which has a long history of oil production, in California's 22nd Congressional District on October 16, 2026 near Bakersfield, California. (Getty Images/AFP)
A pumpjack operates after sunrise in Kern County, which has a long history of oil production, in California's 22nd Congressional District on October 16, 2026 near Bakersfield, California. (Getty Images/AFP)
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Oil Rises on Middle East Supply Fears, US Inventory Drawdowns

A pumpjack operates after sunrise in Kern County, which has a long history of oil production, in California's 22nd Congressional District on October 16, 2026 near Bakersfield, California. (Getty Images/AFP)
A pumpjack operates after sunrise in Kern County, which has a long history of oil production, in California's 22nd Congressional District on October 16, 2026 near Bakersfield, California. (Getty Images/AFP)

Oil prices gained over $1 on Wednesday as escalating Middle East tensions fueled fears of supply disruptions, while falling US crude and product inventories lent support to the market.

Brent crude futures rose $1.59, or 1.5%, to $110.38 per barrel as of 0350 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.36, or 1.4%, to $99.18 per barrel.

Prices fell in the previous trading session after Iran's president discussed ‌mediation efforts in ‌a meeting with Pakistan's army chief in Tehran, though ‌Brent ⁠hit a five-month high ⁠before easing.

"Oil prices have been having a bit of wild ride in the last couple of sessions," said Suvro Sarkar, head of energy research at DBS.

"We believe this is a mix of profit taking and optimistic hopes of a Qatar- or Pakistan-brokered deal, countered by the realization that any deal is still very distant and compounded further by inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which ⁠shows drawdowns continuing in the US for both crude and ‌products."

Iran told Pakistan's army chief there would ‌be no talks with Washington until its demands were met, Iranian media outlet Nournews reported ‌on Tuesday, adding that a Qatari delegation had arrived in Tehran. There ‌was no official confirmation of the reports.

Maritime security risks are also escalating. Shiptracker Kpler said on Monday that at least 18 vessel attacks were recorded over the past two weeks, while LSEG analysts warned Iran was targeting tankers well beyond the Strait of Hormuz, reaching ‌into the Gulf of Oman and jeopardizing Gulf crude loadings and the ship-to-ship transfers supporting regional loadings.

The death toll from a Houthi attack on Yemeni government forces on Monday rose to 73 as fighting intensified.

In the US, two Energy Department officials said on Tuesday they were working with refiners around the world to boost fuel output as a diesel shortage has raised prices.

According to market sources citing API data, US crude stocks fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ended October 16.



Saudi Railways Carry 40.9 Million Passengers in Q3 2026

The King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) Station on the Riyadh Metro. (Siemens Mobility)
The King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) Station on the Riyadh Metro. (Siemens Mobility)
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Saudi Railways Carry 40.9 Million Passengers in Q3 2026

The King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) Station on the Riyadh Metro. (Siemens Mobility)
The King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) Station on the Riyadh Metro. (Siemens Mobility)

Saudi Arabia's railways transported more than 40.9 million passengers and 3.9 million tons of freight and 46,300 containers in the third quarter of 2026, according to the Transport General Authority (TGA).

Meanwhile, Riyadh is moving to expand the capacity of its metro system, supplying 27 new driverless trains and 52 additional carriages for the Riyadh Metro.

In its quarterly report, TGA said passenger numbers rose compared with the same period last year, reflecting growing demand for rail travel in the Kingdom.

Intra-city rail services carried 38.3 million passengers, including 30.4 million on Riyadh Metro, seven million on the King Abdulaziz International Airport Automated Train, and about 911,200 on the Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University line.

The TGA report added that intercity services carried more than 2.5 million passengers. The Haramain High Speed Railway, linking Makkah and Madinah via Jeddah, King Abdulaziz International Airport, and King Abdullah Economic City, carried over 1.9 million.

Saudi Arabia Railways' Eastern Network, connecting Riyadh, Abqaiq, Hofuf, and Dammam, served about 393,900, and its Northern Network, linking Riyadh, Al-Majmaah, Qassim, Hail, Al-Jouf, and Al-Qurayyat, carried 258,600.

Siemens Mobility to supply new trains for Riyadh Metro

Germany's Siemens Mobility has signed a contract with the Royal Commission for Riyadh City (RCRC) to supply 27 new driverless trains and 52 additional carriages for the Riyadh Metro.

Each new train will comprise four carriages, while the additional carriages will be used to expand the capacity of existing two-carriage trains.

The expansion is aimed at increasing passenger capacity on the metro's Blue and Red lines, also known as Lines 1 and 2, to meet growing public transport demand in the Saudi capital.

All vehicles will be built on the proven design of the current Riyadh Metro fleet, ensuring seamless integration and full system compatibility.

“This fleet expansion marks an important step in strengthening Riyadh’s public transport network,” said Frank Hagemeier, Managing Director, Siemens Mobility Saudi Arabia.

“By delivering state-of-the-art, driverless trains for Lines 1 and 2, we are supporting the Royal Commission for Riyadh City in operating a reliable, high-capacity metro system for millions of people every day,” Hagemeier said, adding that Siemens Mobility is proud to contribute to a system that strengthens sustainable mobility and supports the Kingdom’s long-term vision to enhance the daily life of residents.


Goldman Says High Freight Costs Pose Upside Risk to its Brent Forecast

A drone view shows fuel vessels docked at the Baniyas oil terminal in Baniyas, Syria, October 12, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri
A drone view shows fuel vessels docked at the Baniyas oil terminal in Baniyas, Syria, October 12, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri
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Goldman Says High Freight Costs Pose Upside Risk to its Brent Forecast

A drone view shows fuel vessels docked at the Baniyas oil terminal in Baniyas, Syria, October 12, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri
A drone view shows fuel vessels docked at the Baniyas oil terminal in Baniyas, Syria, October 12, 2026. REUTERS/Karam al-Masri

The global average crude freight rate remains seven times higher than a year ago and is unlikely to fall sharply while the Middle East conflict persists, posing some upside risk to Goldman Sachs' Brent price forecast, the bank said in a note dated Tuesday.

The global average crude freight rate surged above $20/bbl from $3/bbl a year ago, with rates on Middle Eastern routes rising above $35/bbl, the bank said.

According to Reuters, Goldman said the war-risk premium for ⁠crossing the Strait of ⁠Hormuz and ship-to-ship transfers account for more than half of the year-over-year increase in global crude freight rates.

Higher freight rates are expanding differentials between crude grades by altering trade patterns and lending support to prices for ⁠refined products, but weighing on refiners' net margins, the bank said.

The bank said a rebound in Gulf crude exports may ease crude prices but push up freight rates if ship-to-ship transfers are driving the export increase.

Goldman said even in its baseline scenario of Brent falling to $90/bbl by year-end and averaging $80/bbl in 2027, Gulf production recovery and stable exports would still ⁠require ship-to-ship transfers ⁠in the absence of reliable navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

The bank sees upside risk to its Brent forecast from prolonged elevated freight rates along with the potential for more intense attacks on shipping, damage to oil infrastructure and a stickier geopolitical risk premium.

A lack of progress in restoring Middle Eastern refined product exports suggests that bunker fuel supplies may remain tight for longer, it added.


Gold Dips for Fourth Session as Oil Rally Fans Inflation Concerns

Gold jewelry displayed at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul (AFP)
Gold jewelry displayed at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul (AFP)
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Gold Dips for Fourth Session as Oil Rally Fans Inflation Concerns

Gold jewelry displayed at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul (AFP)
Gold jewelry displayed at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul (AFP)

Gold prices eased for a fourth session on Wednesday as higher oil prices stoked inflationary concerns, while investors looked ahead to next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting for clues on the future path of interest rates.

Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,118.18 per ounce by 0319 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.2% ‌to $4,136.20, Reuters reported.

"The metal could ‌remain under some pressure as crude ‌prices returned ⁠to the upside, ⁠keeping inflationary pressures in place and reinforcing hawkish monetary policy expectations," said Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager of DHF Capital S.A.

Oil prices edged higher on Wednesday on Middle East supply concerns, with traders wary of Red Sea shipping risks.

"At this point, if some ⁠of these rate hikes that the markets have ‌baked in for next year ‌fall out of the forecast or at least downgrade in their ‌likelihood, then that's likely to send gold higher," said Ilya ‌Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

The Fed will skip raising interest rates this month and deliver a hike in December, according to nearly all economists polled by Reuters, as policymakers signal patience ‌even as stubborn inflation argues for a tougher response.

Expectations of a rate hike at the central ⁠bank's October 27-28 ⁠policy meeting are as low as 16%, while traders still see a 90% chance of a hike in December, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold prices because they increase the opportunity cost of holding the metal, which does not pay interest.

The US dollar index stabilized after recent losses, further reducing demand for bullion.

Markets are also waiting for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures data next week, the Fed's preferred gauge to monitor its 2% inflation target.

Among other metals, spot silver slid 0.9% to $57.44 per ounce, platinum dropped 0.6% to $1,638.61 and palladium slipped 1.1% to $1,090.84.