Kimi Antonelli is set to become Formula One's youngest champion, and Italy's first in 73 years, but the 20-year-old Mercedes driver will have to win and hope the stars align if he is to convert his first "match point" in Texas on Sunday.
Four years old when Sebastian Vettel became the hitherto youngest champion at 23 with Red Bull in 2010, the racer from Bologna has a mighty 102-point lead over teammate George Russell ahead of the US Grand Prix in Austin.
There will be a maximum 125 points remaining to win after the chequered flag drops at the Circuit of the Americas, meaning Antonelli -- in his second season at the pinnacle of motorsport -- will clinch the title if he extends his lead by 23.
Only a win would give him that margin, but the Italian will still need Russell and Ferrari's seven-time champion Lewis Hamilton to finish no higher than ninth or fifth respectively. Otherwise, the wait to become Italy's first champion since Alberto Ascari in 1953 rolls on to at least Mexico City a weekend later.
"I know it's very close, I know it's there, but I just need to make sure that I keep doing the best I can. You know, the mindset is always the same, to go out there and win and perform the best way I can," Antonelli said after finishing third in Singapore, the race before Austin.
That result was his 14th podium of the season.
ONE-IN-25 CHANCE OF TAKING TITLE IN AUSTIN?
"We're in that very uncomfortable phase of the season where you have to navigate the Thursday media with everyone saying 'Oh, you could do it... you've got a first match point'," said deputy principal Bradley Lord in a team podcast.
"People love this tennis comparison of match points, don't they? But I think there's something like a one-in-25 chance of that being remotely possible in Austin.
"Our focus is how can we get the car in its sweet spot and then go and score as many points as possible?"
Russell, who crashed in the Singapore sprint and then started the main race at the back of the grid due to an engine penalty, will be thinking exactly that.
Antonelli has won eight of 17 rounds so far, but the momentum has been more with Red Bull's four-time champion Max Verstappen, winner of the last two races in Malaysia and Singapore and also last year's winner in Austin from pole position.
"You look at the recent races and Red Bull have been very much best. In Baku, Max was a similar level to me. We go to Malaysia, a totally different track, and Singapore another different track, and he's dominated the last two weekends," said Russell.
Verstappen is 119 points behind Antonelli and has said he just wants to have fun for the remaining races, given the championship pressure is off.
Both Mercedes drivers will have the latest upgrade package for the first of three successive race weekends in Texas, Mexico and Brazil.
McLaren's reigning champion Lando Norris was runner-up in Austin last year with Ferrari's Charles Leclerc third and both could be in the mix again while Hamilton's record in the United States is second to none.
"The last few races have not been great for us, but I think we're getting stronger again and Austin is probably a better circuit for our car," said McLaren's chief technical officer Rob Marshall, whose team will also have some upgrades.
The weekend will also see a novel crossover, with four MotoGP riders set to take to the track for a demonstration ride on Saturday. The two-wheeled series and Formula One have a common owner in US-based Liberty Media.
