Global companies are being forced to rethink where they invest, produce and source goods as geopolitical tensions and trade disputes make cost and efficiency alone insufficient to guide business decisions.
Rivalry among major powers, mounting trade restrictions and supply chain disruptions are prompting businesses to reassess their markets, suppliers and exposure to risks beyond national borders.
The shift marks a gradual retreat from an economic model built on maximizing efficiency through global production networks toward one that prioritizes security, resilience and the ability to weather crises.
Diversifying suppliers and markets is no longer simply a growth strategy. It has become a safeguard against dependence on specific sources and an increasingly volatile global environment, even if that means higher costs.
The scale of the shift is evident in the International Chamber of Commerce's 2026 survey, released by the World Chambers Federation. It found that 70% of chambers of commerce worldwide ranked geopolitical tensions as a leading business challenge, up 14 percentage points from 2025.
Political risks have now overtaken tariffs and inflation as the biggest concern for businesses and markets.
Trade risks force a rethink of priorities
Uncertainty is no longer confined to conflict zones. It is spreading across economies and weighing on business conditions, according to the survey, a copy of which was obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat.
Chambers of commerce in 61% of the countries surveyed said the trade environment was hurting their operations in 2026.
Trade uncertainty topped the list of concerns, cited by 70% of chambers, followed by tariffs at 63% and import and export restrictions at 39%.
The figures highlight the mounting pressure on businesses as trade barriers rise and fears of retaliation threaten the flow of goods and investment.
The fallout goes beyond international trade, driving up production costs and prices.
Chambers in nearly nine out of 10 countries reported rising prices, while those in eight out of 10 expected inflationary pressures to persist, indicating that businesses and markets are absorbing some of the costs of trade disruptions.
Companies are responding by redrawing their trade networks rather than relying on a narrow pool of suppliers and markets.
Export diversification emerged as the leading strategy, favored by 73% of respondents, followed by switching to alternative suppliers at 64%.
Relocating production, meanwhile, continued to lose favor, suggesting companies would rather strengthen and diversify existing networks than move manufacturing operations on a large scale.
Cautious optimism amid rising risks
Despite the mounting challenges, the business outlook is far from uniformly gloomy.
Chambers of commerce rated economic conditions as good, very good or excellent in more than half the countries surveyed. Only 10% or fewer of the countries received poor or very poor ratings.
Expectations for business activity also improved.
Chambers in six out of 10 countries anticipated an increase in activity, up from five out of 10 in the 2025 survey.
The findings suggest businesses are not necessarily pulling back. Instead, they are adapting to new risks and reorganizing operations to sustain growth in a more volatile environment.
AI emerges as economic opportunity and geopolitical battleground
The forces reshaping global business extend well beyond trade and supply chains. Technology has become another arena of economic and geopolitical competition.
Artificial intelligence is at the center of that shift.
As companies race to harness AI to boost productivity, the technology is also becoming closely tied to countries' ability to secure advanced chips, infrastructure, data centers and the computing power needed to develop it.
The survey showed AI adoption accelerating sharply. The share of chambers reporting widespread use of the technology reached 32%, nearly tripling since 2024.
Optimism about its potential remains strong.
More than 93% of participating chambers expected the AI boom to continue, while around 90% believed it would improve productivity.
But enthusiasm for efficiency gains is accompanied by growing concern over jobs.
Around 40% of chambers expected AI to have a positive impact on employment. Yet half of respondents anticipated a decline in office-based jobs, compared with 32% who expected losses in manual occupations.
Chambers in emerging economies were generally more optimistic about AI's employment impact than those in advanced economies.
Those concerns are unfolding alongside an intensifying global contest for technological leadership.
The survey revealed a growing perception of China as the frontrunner in the AI race.
Half of participating chambers ranked China as the most advanced country in the field, compared with 38% that chose the United States — a view shared even by some respondents in North America.
