Kana Sekiya, 43, used to shop near a train station in Tokyo on her way back home from work. Now she drives more than 30 minutes on weekends to a discount supermarket to buy groceries in bulk — one of a growing number of consumers shifting their shopping habits as prices rise.
"I've totally stopped going to convenience stores because of the rising cost of living," she said.
Sekiya's changing shopping habits are not just a concern for Japan's once unassailable convenience stores, or "conbini", but also a worrying sign for the economy, which has exited decades of deflation.
Underlying inflation rose in September at the fastest annual pace in three years, according to Bank of Japan data, exceeding its 2% target. The bank is likely on Friday to signal a rate hike could come as soon as December, taking the economy into territory not trodden for more than 30 years.
"Consumers have become extremely demanding when it comes to prices," said Seiji Kitamura, head of group merchandising strategy at 7-Eleven owner Seven & i, which operates around 23,000 outlets across the country.
"Their desire to save has grown more than we anticipated."
Customer numbers at convenience stores have fallen for 15 consecutive months, according to data from the Japan Franchise Association. In September, numbers fell by 3.8% from a year earlier, the most since September 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The increasing thriftiness of Japanese consumers — many of whom have never experienced widespread price gains in their lifetime — is likely to cause wider economic issues.
"With private consumption accounting for about half of Japan's GDP, there are concerns that increased household belt-tightening could weigh on the broader economy," said Ryohei Ikeda, an analyst at Mizuho Research Institute.
Japanese companies used to be famously reticent to raise prices, with ice pop maker Akagi Nyugyo apologizing in 2016 for a 10 yen ($0.06) hike.
But food and drink makers hit by the weak yen and higher oil prices raised prices on more than 20,000 items in 2026 for a second year. Amid the increases, Japanese convenience store operators are facing squeezed consumers seeking cheaper alternatives.
"Competitors such as drugstores and mini-supermarkets are putting value for money front and center," Takeshi Inoue, a corporate manager at Itochu's FamilyMart, said at an earnings briefing.
"We haven't been able to fully meet customers' needs."
Sekiya said she is feeling the pinch when buying goods such as meat and vegetables. She now shops at two discount supermarkets — Lopia and OK — to maximize savings.
To attract customers to its "conbinis", Seven & i is introducing its lower-priced own-brand range, "Seven The Price", which includes precooked chicken and is priced around 20% below branded alternatives.
Last month, FamilyMart said it would offer morning discounts when customers bought bread or rice balls together with drinks such as coffee.
EGG SANDWICHES
In contrast to convenience stores, some supermarkets that compete aggressively on price are seeing robust customer traffic growth.
Seiyu, which was acquired last year by discount chain Trial Holdings, recorded a 6.9% year-on-year increase in customer numbers at existing stores in September.
"Wage growth has not kept pace with inflation, creating favorable conditions for discount retailers," said Seiyu President Hitoshi Narakino.
Walmart previously struggled to make a success of Seiyu, with private equity firm KKR acquiring the business before selling to Trial.
Kyushu-based Trial has brought its popular 199 yen egg sandwiches to Seiyu stores, where it is also bolstering supplies of fresh meat and fish.
Conbini are also under threat from mini-supermarkets, with Trial opening small format Trial GO stores in Tokyo and Aeon , Japan's biggest retailing group, expanding its My Basket chain.
CRANE GAMES
As higher oil prices due to the Iran war feed through to electricity and gas bills, inflation is likely to top 3% in early 2027, said Taro Saito, a research fellow at the NLI Research Institute.
Real wages are also likely to turn negative next year, potentially further squeezing households, he said.
With rising labor and utility costs squeezing franchisees, conbini operators are looking outside of food to grow revenue.
FamilyMart is installing crane games and capsule-toy machines in about 5,000 stores by reducing space allocated for magazines and eating in.
Lawson, which is owned by Mitsubishi Corp and KDDI , has also installed toy machines at about 1,500 stores.
There are also signs of price sensitivity across the broader retail sector.
Uniqlo parent Fast Retailing this week said it was scrapping a planned price hike for a color socks line that was set to take effect from November 10.
"As socks are an essential everyday item, in Japan we reconsidered our planned price revision," Fast Retailing said.
