Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain each face a shocking early exit from the Champions League for the first time in more than a decade when the final round of games Wednesday decide the new 36-team standings.
When the 18 games kick off at the same time, 9 p.m. Central European Time (2000 GMT), to complete the inaugural league-phase format, Man City is outside the top-24 places that advance to the knockout stage and 22nd-place PSG risks dropping out.
Man City must beat Club Brugge at home to rise safely from 25th place. A draw for PSG at 24th-place Stuttgart should be enough for both teams — barring a freakish big win for Dinamo Zagreb over AC Milan to take the tiebreaker on goal difference among teams that end on 11 points.
A PSG loss in Germany risks ending a run of 12 straight years playing in the knockout stage.
The final-day jeopardy also was unexpected for Man City, the Champions League winner two years ago, which let a two-goal lead slip in a 4-2 loss at PSG last week.
The English Premier League champion advanced 11 years in a row from the old group stage since going winless in the 2012-13 edition.
It is the kind of scenario Champions League organizer UEFA hoped for when approving the new format under severe pressure from storied clubs who demanded more lucrative games and more of them against high-end opponents.
Those same influential clubs -- including the super-wealthy state-backed pair of Man City and PSG - hardly imagined they would miss out on the knockout phase that brings global brand-building attention and tens of millions of euros in extra prize money from UEFA.
Real Madrid had to play just 13 games to win the Champions League last season, and now faces playing 17 to retain the title.
Madrid is 16th in the standings before going to play unheralded Brest after losing three of its seven games, including on its previous trip to France against Lille.
The record 15-time European champion can still rise to a top-8 finish — earning direct entry to the round of 16 in March — by beating 13th-place Brest, though needs other results to go its way.
Teams that finish from ninth to 24th enter Friday’s draw for the two-leg knockout playoffs played on back-to-back midweeks in February.
That shapes as an unwanted burden in the congested calendar for teams also chasing domestic titles, rather than bonus games to earn more revenue.
Bundesliga leader Bayern Munich is in 15th place, also on 12 points with Madrid, before hosting Slovan Bratislava, which has been overmatched losing seven straight games.
A 15-point tally, with a strong goal difference, could be enough to take eighth place currently held by Bayer Leverkusen, which heads a group of six teams on 13 points. Leverkusen hosts already eliminated Sparta Prague.
Bayern and Madrid can be helped by the tough schedule for teams ahead in the standings: Atalanta in seventh goes to Barcelona, 10th-place Monaco is at Inter Milan, while Lille and Feyenoord — 12th vs 11th — cannot both reach 15 points.
League-leading Liverpool has let most star players skip the trip to 19th-place PSV Eindhoven because it is one of the few teams with certainty.
Seven wins guaranteed Liverpool a top-two seeding in the tennis-like bracket for the knockout rounds. That draw will be made Feb. 21 after the playoffs round, setting up pairings through to the May 31 final in Munich.
Only Liverpool and Barcelona have already sealed their top-8 places, though Arsenal and Inter — both on 16 points — likely will join them. Atletico Madrid and Milan start Wednesday’s games on 15 points.
