Climate on Track to Warm by Nearly 3C without Aggressive Actions, UN Report Finds

 AES Indiana Petersburg Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant, operates in Petersburg, Ind., on Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. (AP)
AES Indiana Petersburg Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant, operates in Petersburg, Ind., on Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. (AP)
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Climate on Track to Warm by Nearly 3C without Aggressive Actions, UN Report Finds

 AES Indiana Petersburg Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant, operates in Petersburg, Ind., on Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. (AP)
AES Indiana Petersburg Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant, operates in Petersburg, Ind., on Wednesday, Oct. 25, 2023. (AP)

Countries' current emissions pledges to limit climate change would still put the world on track to warm by nearly 3 degrees Celsius this century, according to a United Nations analysis released Monday.

The annual Emissions Gap report, which assesses countries' promises to tackle climate change compared with what is needed, finds the world faces between 2.5C (4.5F) and 2.9C (5.2F) of warming above preindustrial levels if governments do not boost climate action.

At 3C of warming, scientists predict the world could pass several catastrophic points of no return, from the runaway melting of ice sheets to the Amazon rainforest drying out.

"Present trends are racing our planet down a dead-end 3C temperature rise," said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. "The emissions gap is more like an emissions canyon."

World leaders will soon meet in Dubai for the annual UN climate summit COP28 with the aim of keeping the Paris Agreement warming target of 1.5C alive.

But the new UN report does little to inspire hope that this goal remains in reach, finding that planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 42% by 2030 to hold warming at 1.5C (2.7F).

Even in the most optimistic emissions scenario, the chance of now limiting warming to 1.5C is just 14% — adding to a growing body of scientific evidence suggesting the goal is dead.

Global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.2% from 2021 to 2022, reaching a record 57.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. The report assessed countries' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which they are required to update every five years, to determine how much the world might warm if these plans were fully implemented.

It compares unconditional pledges — promises with no strings attached, which would lead to a 2.9C temperature rise — to conditional pledges that would hold warming to 2.5C.

"That is basically unchanged compared with last year's report," said Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report.

The anticipated level of warming is slightly higher than 2022 projections, which then pointed toward a rise of between 2.4C and 2.6C by 2100, because the 2023 report ran simulations on more climate models.

However, the world has made progress since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015. Warming projections based on emissions at that time "were way higher than they are now", Olhoff said.



Latest Tests Show Seine Water Quality Was Substandard When Paris Mayor Took a Dip

 Boats carrying members of delegations sail along the Seine during the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games on July 26, 2024. (AFP)
Boats carrying members of delegations sail along the Seine during the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games on July 26, 2024. (AFP)
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Latest Tests Show Seine Water Quality Was Substandard When Paris Mayor Took a Dip

 Boats carrying members of delegations sail along the Seine during the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games on July 26, 2024. (AFP)
Boats carrying members of delegations sail along the Seine during the opening ceremony of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games on July 26, 2024. (AFP)

Tests results released Friday showed the water quality in the River Seine was slightly below the standards needed to authorize swimming — just as the Paris Olympics start.

Heavy rain during the opening ceremony revived concerns over whether the long-polluted waterway will be clean enough to host swimming competitions, since water quality is deeply linked with the weather in the French capital.

Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo took a highly publicized dip last week in a bid to ease fears. The Seine will be used for marathon swimming and triathlon.

Daily water quality tests measure levels of fecal bacteria known as E. coli.

Tests by monitoring group Eau de Paris show that at the Bras Marie, E. coli levels were then above the safe limit of 900 colony-forming units per 100 milliliters determined by European rules on June 17, when the mayor took a dip.

The site reached a value of 985 on the day the mayor swam with Paris 2024 chief Tony Estanguet and the top government official for the Paris region, Marc Guillaume, joined her, along with swimmers from local swimming clubs.

At two other measuring points further downstream, the results were below the threshold.

The statement by Paris City Hall and the prefecture of the Paris region noted that water quality last week was in line with European rules six days out of seven on the site which is to host the Olympic swimming competitions.

It noted that "the flow of the Seine is highly unstable due to regular rainfall episodes and remains more than twice the usual flow in summer," explaining fluctuating test results.

Swimming in the Seine has been banned for over a century. Since 2015, organizers have invested $1.5 billion to prepare the Seine for the Olympics and to ensure Parisians have a cleaner river after the Games. The plan included constructing a giant underground water storage basin in central Paris, renovating sewer infrastructure, and upgrading wastewater treatment plants.