US Scientists Say One-in-Three Chance 2024 Another Year of Record Heat

 A helicopter makes a water drop as a wildfire burns parts of the rural areas of Santiago, Chile December 19, 2023. (Reuters)
A helicopter makes a water drop as a wildfire burns parts of the rural areas of Santiago, Chile December 19, 2023. (Reuters)
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US Scientists Say One-in-Three Chance 2024 Another Year of Record Heat

 A helicopter makes a water drop as a wildfire burns parts of the rural areas of Santiago, Chile December 19, 2023. (Reuters)
A helicopter makes a water drop as a wildfire burns parts of the rural areas of Santiago, Chile December 19, 2023. (Reuters)

This year has a one-in-three chance of being even hotter than 2023, which was already the world's hottest on record, scientists from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Friday.

In its annual global climate analysis, the agency confirmed the findings of EU scientists that 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1850, putting it at 1.35 degrees Celsius (2.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average. The amount of heat stored in the upper layers of the ocean also reached a record high last year, NOAA said.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also confirmed 2023 was a record year on Friday and said the world has warmed 1.2C (2.16F) above the preindustrial average, based on the ten-year global average temperature from 2014 to 2023.

The record was made possible by climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, alongside an El Nino climate pattern that emerged halfway through the year. El Nino is a natural event that leads to warmer surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean and higher global temperatures.

It is expected to persist until at least April, increasing the likelihood 2024 will be another record year.

"The interesting and depressing question is what will happen in 2024? Will it be warmer than 2023? We don't know yet," said Christopher Hewitt, WMO head of international climate services.

NOAA said there was a one-in-three chance that 2024 would be warmer than 2023, and a 99% chance it would rank among the five warmest on record.

"It's highly likely (El Nino) will persist until April, possibly May, and then beyond that we're not sure — it becomes less certain," said Hewitt.

The impacts of El Nino normally peak during the Northern Hemisphere's winter and then diminish, switching to either neutral conditions or a La Nina phase which generally yields cooler global temperatures. But there is also the risk El Nino will return.

"If we were to make a transition into a La Nina phase ... maybe 2024 might not be the warmest on record," said Carlo Buontempo, director of Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

As the Southern Hemisphere is now in summer when El Nino peaks, authorities are on alert for heatwaves, drought and fire.

This week, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology issued extreme heat alerts for Western Australia.

And in southern Africa, "we're really concerned about the potential for dry spells in January and February with a high likelihood of below-average rainfall," said Lark Walters, a decision support adviser for the Famine Early Warning System Network.

"We're estimating over 20 million will be in need of emergency food assistance."



Prince Harry Loses Legal Fight with UK Government over Police Protection

Prince Harry says security concerns have hampered his ability to visit the UK. HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP
Prince Harry says security concerns have hampered his ability to visit the UK. HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP
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Prince Harry Loses Legal Fight with UK Government over Police Protection

Prince Harry says security concerns have hampered his ability to visit the UK. HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP
Prince Harry says security concerns have hampered his ability to visit the UK. HENRY NICHOLLS / AFP

Prince Harry on Friday lost his legal challenge to changes to his security arrangements made by the British government following his decision to step down from royal duties with his American wife Meghan.

Harry, King Charles' younger son, had sought to overturn a decision by the Home Office - the ministry responsible for policing - which decided in February 2020 he would not automatically receive personal police security while in Britain.

Last year, the High Court in London ruled the decision was lawful and that decision was upheld by three senior Court of Appeal judges who said that, while Harry understandably felt aggrieved, that did not amount to an error of law in the decision.

Judge Geoffrey Vos said Harry's lawyer had made "powerful and moving arguments" about the impact of the decision about his security.

"It was plain that the Duke of Sussex felt badly treated by the system, but I conclude - having studied the detail of the extensive documentation - I could not say that the Duke's sense of grievance translated into a legal argument for the challenge to RAVEC's decision," he told the court, Reuters reported. 

Harry, 40, who now lives in California with Meghan and their two children, attended two days of hearings in person in April, when his lawyer told the court that he had been singled out for different, unjustified and inferior treatment.

His lawyers said al Qaeda had recently called for him to be murdered, and he and his American wife Meghan had been involved in "a dangerous car pursuit with paparazzi in New York City" in 2023.

"One must not forget the human dimension to this case: there is a person sitting behind me whose safety, whose security and whose life is at stake," his lawyer Shaheed Fatima told the court as Harry watched on.

"His presence here and throughout this appeal is a potent illustration, were one needed, of how much this appeal means to him and his family," she said.

However, the government's legal team said the bespoke arrangement for Harry, the Duke of Sussex, had positive advantages from a security assessment point of view.