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What Is Japan’s Nankai Trough Megaquake Advisory?

Japan's earthquake experts panel chief Naoshi Hirata talks about probability of megaquake on the Nankai Trough; in Tokyo, Japan, 08 August 2024 (issued 09 August 2024) after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit southwestern Japan on the day. (EPA/JIJI Press)
Japan's earthquake experts panel chief Naoshi Hirata talks about probability of megaquake on the Nankai Trough; in Tokyo, Japan, 08 August 2024 (issued 09 August 2024) after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit southwestern Japan on the day. (EPA/JIJI Press)
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What Is Japan’s Nankai Trough Megaquake Advisory?

Japan's earthquake experts panel chief Naoshi Hirata talks about probability of megaquake on the Nankai Trough; in Tokyo, Japan, 08 August 2024 (issued 09 August 2024) after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit southwestern Japan on the day. (EPA/JIJI Press)
Japan's earthquake experts panel chief Naoshi Hirata talks about probability of megaquake on the Nankai Trough; in Tokyo, Japan, 08 August 2024 (issued 09 August 2024) after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit southwestern Japan on the day. (EPA/JIJI Press)

Japan issued its first-ever advisory on higher-than-usual risks of a megaquake, after a strong magnitude 7.1 quake occurred on Thursday at the edge of a tremulous seabed zone along the Pacific coast known as the Nankai Trough.

A possible Nankai Trough megaquake and tsunami disaster could kill hundreds of thousands of people and cause a trillion-dollar damage to Japan.

Here's a look at the risks of what could be the biggest natural disaster in Japan's modern history.

WHAT IS THE NEW RISK OF A MEGAQUAKE?

Japan's Nankai Trough quake advisory panel said the chance of a bigger earthquake striking after a magnitude 7 tremor was once in a few hundred cases, relatively higher than regular times. Earthquakes with a magnitude larger than 8 are considered megaquakes.

Japan estimates the next Nankai Trough megaquake could be as powerful as magnitude 9.1.

University of Tokyo professor Naoshi Hirata, who chairs the panel, said in a press conference that residents in areas that would be hit by such a disaster should review evacuation procedures and stay vigilant for a week.

Japan is one of the world's most earthquake-prone nations sitting on the Pacific "Ring of Fire" arc of volcanoes and oceanic trenches. In 2011, more than 15,000 people were killed in a magnitude 9.0 quake in northeast Japan that triggered a tsunami and triple reactor meltdowns at a nuclear power plant.

WHAT IS NANKAI TROUGH AND WHY IS IT SIGNIFICANT FOR QUAKES?

The Nankai Trough is off its southwest Pacific coast and runs for approximately 900 km (600 miles), where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting under the Eurasian Plate and the accumulating tectonic strains could result in a megaquake roughly once in 100 to 150 years.

The Japanese government had previously predicted a 70-80% chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake happening along the Trough in the next 30 years.

The magnitude of an earthquake is related to the length of the fault on which it occurs, according to the United States Geological Survey. The largest earthquake ever recorded was a magnitude 9.5 on May 22, 1960 in Chile on a fault that is almost 1,000 miles long.

THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE FROM NANKAI TROUGH QUAKE AND TSUNAMI

A megaquake could result in maximum measurable tremors to areas from central Shizuoka - about 150 km (93 miles) south of capital Tokyo - to southwestern Miyazaki.

Tsunami of up to 30 meters (98 feet) may reach Japan's Pacific coasts within minutes after the quake, depending on the epicenter and tidal situation.

Coupled with landslides and fire, the disaster would be expected to claim the lives of as many as 323,000 people and destroy 2.38 million buildings, forcing nearly 10 million survivors to evacuate.

Economic damage could total up to 220 trillion yen ($1.50 trillion), or more than a third of Japan's annual gross domestic product, with long-lasting impacts on infrastructure and supply chains for coastal industrial powerhouses producing cars and other key Japanese products.

PREVIOUS NANKAI TROUGH RELATED QUAKES

Nankai Trough earthquakes have been marked on Japan's historic records multiple times since 684, often with accounts of tsunamis striking coastal villages.

The most recent Nankai Trough quake happened in 1946 with magnitude 8.0 tremor and 6.9 meter tsunami, killing 1,330 people.

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Varieties

Greece Is Paying Fishermen to Catch Toxic Toadfish Invading the Warming Mediterranean

A silver-cheeked toadfish placed on the ground after being caught by fishermen on the southern island of Crete, Greece, Monday, June 22, 2015. (InTime News via AP)
A silver-cheeked toadfish placed on the ground after being caught by fishermen on the southern island of Crete, Greece, Monday, June 22, 2015. (InTime News via AP)
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Greece Is Paying Fishermen to Catch Toxic Toadfish Invading the Warming Mediterranean

A silver-cheeked toadfish placed on the ground after being caught by fishermen on the southern island of Crete, Greece, Monday, June 22, 2015. (InTime News via AP)
A silver-cheeked toadfish placed on the ground after being caught by fishermen on the southern island of Crete, Greece, Monday, June 22, 2015. (InTime News via AP)

Fishermen in Greece are getting cash payouts to catch toxic fish migrating north into the Mediterranean Sea due to climate change.

The silver-cheeked toadfish is a torpedo-shaped species with prominent, humanlike teeth. Its skin and organs contain a powerful neurotoxin that can cause heart failure in humans if consumed.

Authorities say the fish have not been sighted in bathing areas at Greek island resorts. But in recent weeks, the fish have wreaked havoc for fishermen off the coast of Crete and several other Greek islands, chomping through nets.

“It’s got to the point where we might go out fishing one day and then spend the next three days fixing our nets,” Giorgos Kyriakakis, of a Cretan fishermen’s association, told Greek public broadcaster ERT on Friday.

“They eat our catch and damage our nets — that’s very costly,” he said.

The fish are believed to have traveled up the Suez Canal and into the Mediterranean, attracted by warming waters. The invasion prompted Cyprus to launch a similar catch program earlier this year.

Starting Friday, Greece's government is offering 5.33 euros per kilogram (about $2.75 per pound) for catches of the fish, which is normally found in tropical waters.

“It’s the first time that such a measure has been taken in Greece,” Agriculture Minister Margaritis Schinas, a former European Commission vice president, said ahead of the program’s launch.

The fish – a member of the puffer fish family – will be frozen and incinerated at local government facilities, Schinas said. He added that the measure would likely be expanded from the currently affected islands to all Greek waters.

Public concern has been stoked in Greece by online videos posted by Greek fishing crews, showing the fish sinking their teeth into soda cans or pieces of wood.

The Greek Red Cross has issued a public health warning about the fish, outlining first-aid protocols for bleeding caused by potential bites and warning of the deadly neurotoxin in the fish’s organs.

But authorities and businesses on the island of Crete cautioned against overreacting to the fish’s offshore presence.

“The presence of these fish in the Mediterranean has been known for years,” a statement issued Friday by 16 medical and tourism associations on Crete said.

“There is, however, no ‘invisible’ or imminent danger to bathers. Marine predators do not threaten the safety of visitors and residents,” it said. “Exaggeration is often a feature of public debate.”

Varieties

St. Bernard Dogs Still Roam the Swiss Alps as Part of 'Living Museum'

St. Bernard dogs from the Barry foundation run in the hills at the St. Bernard Pass, Switzerland, Monday, June 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Jez Fielder)
St. Bernard dogs from the Barry foundation run in the hills at the St. Bernard Pass, Switzerland, Monday, June 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Jez Fielder)
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St. Bernard Dogs Still Roam the Swiss Alps as Part of 'Living Museum'

St. Bernard dogs from the Barry foundation run in the hills at the St. Bernard Pass, Switzerland, Monday, June 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Jez Fielder)
St. Bernard dogs from the Barry foundation run in the hills at the St. Bernard Pass, Switzerland, Monday, June 22, 2026. (AP Photo/Jez Fielder)

At the Great St. Bernard Pass high in the Swiss Alps, the eponymous dogs still walk the same mountain paths their ancestors patrolled for hundreds of years to find travelers buried beneath the snow.

Down in the valley, a living museum honoring the Swiss national dog's history — and its future — is marking its first year.

More than 130,000 people have visited Barryland, the world's only space dedicated to St. Bernards, since it opened last summer in Martigny, Switzerland, after outgrowing a much smaller space. Tourists can watch live grooming and physiotherapy sessions, explore the mountain pass with augmented reality technology and learn more about the dogs.

“We have a lot of demand and interest for this breed and this whole history and patrimony,” The Associated Press quoted Barryland director Mélanie Glassey-Roth as saying. “So we decided to create a new park, a big one.”

At 2,469 meters (8,100 feet) above sea level on the Swiss-Italian border, the Great St. Bernard Pass is one of the country’s highest and most treacherous.

Since the mid-17th century, large mountain dogs have been kept on the pass. They arrived as guard dogs, became companions, and gradually evolved into something the Alpine world had never seen before: Animals with an extraordinary instinct for locating hikers lost in snow and fog.

The breed's name stems from the Great St. Bernard Hospice, which was founded in 1050 by Bernard de Montjoux, the archdeacon of Aosta and future saint, to provide refuge for pilgrims and merchants crossing the dangerous pass. The dogs became central to that mission, and by the early 19th century they had a reputation that was carried across Europe by soldiers of Napoleon Bonaparte following his army's own crossing of the route.

Barry the First, the most celebrated dog, is traditionally credited with saving more than 40 lives when he was at the hospice between 1800 and 1812. At the Barry Foundation, the steward for the breeding program, there is always a male dog called Barry.

Currently, the foundation's 21 keepers care for 32 dogs. Roughly 20 pedigree puppies are born annually. These dogs, as well as other St. Bernards, no longer do mountain rescues because they’re too big to be transported by helicopter. Smaller breeds like Australian shepherds are used instead, though a number of St. Bernards are kept on the pass to keep the tradition alive.

The foundation's dogs typically eat about 10 metric tons (22,046 pounds) of dry food each year and spend their summers gamboling in the remnants of snow in the mountains before heading 40 kilometers (25 miles) down winding roads back to the kennel in Barryland.

“We get to see them born, and we get to see them grow up, and then become mothers, and we get to accompany them through all those different challenges in life,” keeper Alexandra Piatti said. “We are their guide, so we can help them with socialization and educate them, and really be by their side for their whole lives.”

In 2025 alone, the foundation says its dogs completed 609 jobs by visiting hospitals, care homes, schools and prisons across Switzerland.

Keeper Déborah Dini balances the weight of the breed's history with affection for the dogs in her charge.

“We perpetuate the tradition,” she said. “We take care of them. We love them.”

Varieties

Analysis: At Least 150 Mn People in Europe Forecast to Face Temperatures Above 35C Friday

Youths cool down in the waters of the Canal Saint-Martin as France experiences a heatwave, in Paris on June 25, 2026. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
Youths cool down in the waters of the Canal Saint-Martin as France experiences a heatwave, in Paris on June 25, 2026. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
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Analysis: At Least 150 Mn People in Europe Forecast to Face Temperatures Above 35C Friday

Youths cool down in the waters of the Canal Saint-Martin as France experiences a heatwave, in Paris on June 25, 2026. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)
Youths cool down in the waters of the Canal Saint-Martin as France experiences a heatwave, in Paris on June 25, 2026. (Photo by Ludovic MARIN / AFP)

At least 150 million people in Europe are expected to experience temperatures above 35C on Friday, according to an AFP analysis.

Germany is now expected to bear the brunt of the heatwave, with some 82 million people forecast to experience temperatures above 30C on Friday, including 52 million facing temperatures exceeding 35C.

Some 420 million people across Europe (excluding Türkiye) -- around 70 percent of the population -- will swelter in temperatures of more than 30C, according to the analysis.

Pedestrians cool off at “The area with Ljubljana’s own weather” in Preseren Square in Ljubljana on June 24, 2026. (Photo by Jure MAKOVEC / AFP)

Britain, France, Spain and Switzerland have all broken temperature records during the heatwave, with the high temperatures now expected to affect large parts of Hungary, Belgium and Luxembourg, among others.

The analysis is based on forecasts from the German Meteorological Service and 2025 population projections from the Joint Research Center and is in line with figures from Austrian NGO Klimadashboard.