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What Is Japan’s Nankai Trough Megaquake Advisory?

Japan's earthquake experts panel chief Naoshi Hirata talks about probability of megaquake on the Nankai Trough; in Tokyo, Japan, 08 August 2024 (issued 09 August 2024) after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit southwestern Japan on the day. (EPA/JIJI Press)
Japan's earthquake experts panel chief Naoshi Hirata talks about probability of megaquake on the Nankai Trough; in Tokyo, Japan, 08 August 2024 (issued 09 August 2024) after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit southwestern Japan on the day. (EPA/JIJI Press)
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What Is Japan’s Nankai Trough Megaquake Advisory?

Japan's earthquake experts panel chief Naoshi Hirata talks about probability of megaquake on the Nankai Trough; in Tokyo, Japan, 08 August 2024 (issued 09 August 2024) after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit southwestern Japan on the day. (EPA/JIJI Press)
Japan's earthquake experts panel chief Naoshi Hirata talks about probability of megaquake on the Nankai Trough; in Tokyo, Japan, 08 August 2024 (issued 09 August 2024) after a magnitude 7.1 earthquake hit southwestern Japan on the day. (EPA/JIJI Press)

Japan issued its first-ever advisory on higher-than-usual risks of a megaquake, after a strong magnitude 7.1 quake occurred on Thursday at the edge of a tremulous seabed zone along the Pacific coast known as the Nankai Trough.

A possible Nankai Trough megaquake and tsunami disaster could kill hundreds of thousands of people and cause a trillion-dollar damage to Japan.

Here's a look at the risks of what could be the biggest natural disaster in Japan's modern history.

WHAT IS THE NEW RISK OF A MEGAQUAKE?

Japan's Nankai Trough quake advisory panel said the chance of a bigger earthquake striking after a magnitude 7 tremor was once in a few hundred cases, relatively higher than regular times. Earthquakes with a magnitude larger than 8 are considered megaquakes.

Japan estimates the next Nankai Trough megaquake could be as powerful as magnitude 9.1.

University of Tokyo professor Naoshi Hirata, who chairs the panel, said in a press conference that residents in areas that would be hit by such a disaster should review evacuation procedures and stay vigilant for a week.

Japan is one of the world's most earthquake-prone nations sitting on the Pacific "Ring of Fire" arc of volcanoes and oceanic trenches. In 2011, more than 15,000 people were killed in a magnitude 9.0 quake in northeast Japan that triggered a tsunami and triple reactor meltdowns at a nuclear power plant.

WHAT IS NANKAI TROUGH AND WHY IS IT SIGNIFICANT FOR QUAKES?

The Nankai Trough is off its southwest Pacific coast and runs for approximately 900 km (600 miles), where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting under the Eurasian Plate and the accumulating tectonic strains could result in a megaquake roughly once in 100 to 150 years.

The Japanese government had previously predicted a 70-80% chance of a magnitude 8 to 9 earthquake happening along the Trough in the next 30 years.

The magnitude of an earthquake is related to the length of the fault on which it occurs, according to the United States Geological Survey. The largest earthquake ever recorded was a magnitude 9.5 on May 22, 1960 in Chile on a fault that is almost 1,000 miles long.

THE POTENTIAL DAMAGE FROM NANKAI TROUGH QUAKE AND TSUNAMI

A megaquake could result in maximum measurable tremors to areas from central Shizuoka - about 150 km (93 miles) south of capital Tokyo - to southwestern Miyazaki.

Tsunami of up to 30 meters (98 feet) may reach Japan's Pacific coasts within minutes after the quake, depending on the epicenter and tidal situation.

Coupled with landslides and fire, the disaster would be expected to claim the lives of as many as 323,000 people and destroy 2.38 million buildings, forcing nearly 10 million survivors to evacuate.

Economic damage could total up to 220 trillion yen ($1.50 trillion), or more than a third of Japan's annual gross domestic product, with long-lasting impacts on infrastructure and supply chains for coastal industrial powerhouses producing cars and other key Japanese products.

PREVIOUS NANKAI TROUGH RELATED QUAKES

Nankai Trough earthquakes have been marked on Japan's historic records multiple times since 684, often with accounts of tsunamis striking coastal villages.

The most recent Nankai Trough quake happened in 1946 with magnitude 8.0 tremor and 6.9 meter tsunami, killing 1,330 people.

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Varieties

Nepal Halts Search after Guide Killed, Iranian Climber Missing

A tourist looks at a view of Mt. Everest from the hills of Syangboche in Nepal December 3, 2009. REUTERS/Gopal Chitrakar
A tourist looks at a view of Mt. Everest from the hills of Syangboche in Nepal December 3, 2009. REUTERS/Gopal Chitrakar
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Nepal Halts Search after Guide Killed, Iranian Climber Missing

A tourist looks at a view of Mt. Everest from the hills of Syangboche in Nepal December 3, 2009. REUTERS/Gopal Chitrakar
A tourist looks at a view of Mt. Everest from the hills of Syangboche in Nepal December 3, 2009. REUTERS/Gopal Chitrakar

Bad weather forced Nepali rescuers to suspend the search Monday for an Iranian climber missing for four days after an accident which killed a Nepali team member, expedition organizers said.

Extreme conditions, including fierce winds, made rescue efforts impossible on the 8,481-meter (27,825-feet) high Mount Makalu, the world's fifth highest mountain.

Iranian climber Abolfazl Gozali, 42, and Nepali guide Phurba Ongel Sherpa, 44, were part of a rare winter expedition on the peak.

The four-member team successfully summited on Thursday, but during the descent the guide fell to his death.

Team lead Sanu Sherpa, who has climbed all 14 highest peaks in the world at least twice, and Lakpa Rinji Sherpa went to his aid but found that he had fallen hundreds of meters and did not survive.

When they returned to where they had left Gozali, he was no longer there.

"A team of eight experienced climbers have been sent but the wind has been very strong and affected the search," Madan Lamsal of expedition organizer Makalu Adventure told AFP.

"We hope to resume soon."

Lamsal said the rescuers intend to find Gozali, as well as recover the guide's body.

Phurba Ongel Sherpa was a highly experienced mountaineering guide with multiple summits of Everest and other major peaks.

Gozali is also an accomplished climber, who has climbed two of world's highest peaks and completed the "snow-leopard peaks" -- the five mountains of over 7,000 meters between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

This was his second attempt to summit Makalu in winter. Last year, freezing temperatures and high winds forced the team to turn back, just 800 meters short of the summit.

Nepal is home to eight of the world's 10 highest peaks, including Mount Everest, and welcomes hundreds of climbers every year during the spring and autumn climbing seasons.

Dangerous terrain and extreme weather can make winter expeditions particularly risky.

Varieties

Shark Mauls Surfer in Sydney, 3rd Attack in Two Days

People stand next to warning signs in place, and beaches are closed after a surfer suffered a shark attack at Dee Why Beach in Sydney, Australia, January 19, 2026. REUTERS/Jeremy Piper
People stand next to warning signs in place, and beaches are closed after a surfer suffered a shark attack at Dee Why Beach in Sydney, Australia, January 19, 2026. REUTERS/Jeremy Piper
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Shark Mauls Surfer in Sydney, 3rd Attack in Two Days

People stand next to warning signs in place, and beaches are closed after a surfer suffered a shark attack at Dee Why Beach in Sydney, Australia, January 19, 2026. REUTERS/Jeremy Piper
People stand next to warning signs in place, and beaches are closed after a surfer suffered a shark attack at Dee Why Beach in Sydney, Australia, January 19, 2026. REUTERS/Jeremy Piper

A shark mauled a surfer off an ocean beach in Sydney on Monday in the Australian city's third shark attack in two days, authorities said.

The surfer, believed to be in his 20s, was in a critical condition in hospital with serious leg injuries after the attack at a northern Sydney beach, police said.

"The man was pulled from the water by members of the public who commenced first aid before the arrival of emergency services," New South Wales state police said in a statement.

All of Sydney's northern beaches were closed until further notice.

The attack at North Steyne Beach in the suburb of Manly came hours after a shark bit a large chunk out of a young surfer's board about 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) north along the coast at Dee Why Point.

That surfer, reportedly a boy aged about 11, was uninjured but the beach was closed immediately, AFP reported.

On Sunday, a large shark bit a 12-year-old boy in the legs as he played with friends at a beach in Sydney harbor, leaving him fighting for survival in hospital.

The boy and his friends were jumping from a six-meter (20-foot) rock into the water off Shark Beach in the eastern suburb of Vaucluse when the predator struck, police said.

"It was a horrendous scene at the time when police attended. We believe it was something like a bull shark that attacked the lower limbs of that boy," said Superintendent Joseph McNulty, New South Wales marine area police commander.

"That boy is fighting for his life now," he told reporters on Monday.

Recent heavy rain had drained into the harbor, and authorities believed the combination of the brackish seawater and the children's splashing created a "perfect storm" for a shark attack, McNulty said.

He warned people not to go swimming in the harbor or other river systems in New South Wales because of the risks.

He praised the boy's "brave" young friends for pulling him out of the water on Sunday.

Officers put the unconscious child in a police boat and gave him first aid, applying two tourniquets to stem the bleeding from his legs, McNulty said.

They tried to resuscitate the boy as they sped across the harbor to a wharf where ambulance paramedics were waiting.

The child, confirmed by police to be 12 years old, was in intensive care at Sydney Children's Hospital surrounded by family and friends, McNulty said.

Varieties

China’s Population Falls Again as Births Drop to Lowest Rate Since 1949 Communist Revolution

Women push baby strollers as they walk along a street in Beijing on January 4, 2026. (AFP)
Women push baby strollers as they walk along a street in Beijing on January 4, 2026. (AFP)
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China’s Population Falls Again as Births Drop to Lowest Rate Since 1949 Communist Revolution

Women push baby strollers as they walk along a street in Beijing on January 4, 2026. (AFP)
Women push baby strollers as they walk along a street in Beijing on January 4, 2026. (AFP)

How do you persuade a population to have more babies after generations of limiting families to just one?

A decade after ending China's longtime one-child policy, authorities are pushing a range of ideas and policies to try and encourage more births — tactics that range from cash subsidies to taxing condoms to eliminating a tax on matchmakers and day care centers.

The efforts haven't paid off yet. At least, that's what population figures released Monday show for what is now the world's second-most populous nation. China's population of 1.4 billion continued to shrink, marking the fourth straight year of decrease, new government statistics show. The total population in 2025 stood at 1.404 billion, which was 3 million less than the previous year.

Measured another way, the birth rate in 2025 is the lowest on record since 1949, the year that Mao Zedong’s Communists overthrew the Nationalists and began running China. Figures before that, under the previous Nationalist government, were not available. The rate of 5.63% is the number of births per 1,000 people.

China was long the world’s most populous nation until 2023, when it was surpassed by regional neighbor and sometime rival India. Monday's statistics illustrate the stark demographic pressures faced by the country as it tries to pivot from a problem it is working hard to overcome: status as a nation with a growing but transitional economy that, as is often said, is “getting old before it gets rich.”

Is a snake involved? The number of new babies born was just 7.92 million in 2025, a decline of 1.62 million, or 17%. The latest birth numbers show that the slight tick upwards in 2024 was not a lasting trend. Births declined for seven years in a row through 2023.

Most families cite the costs and pressure of raising a child in a highly competitive society as significant hurdles that now loom larger in the face of an economic downturn that has impacted households struggling to meet their living costs. Another potential factor in the numbers: last year in China was the year of the snake, considered one of the least favored years for having a child under the Chinese zodiac.

Like many other countries in Asia, China has faced a declining fertility rate, or the average number of babies a woman is expected to have in her lifetime. While the government does not regularly publish a fertility rate, last saying it was 1.3 in 2020, experts have estimated it is now around 1. Both figures are far below the 2.1 rate that would maintain the size of China's population.

For decades, the Chinese government barred people from having more than one baby and often sanctioned those who did — a policy that produced more than two generations of only children. In 2015, the government raised the permitted amount of offspring to two and then, facing demographic pressure, further revised the limit to three kids in 2021.

The push for more births is about the economy. China now has 323 million people over 60, or 23% of the entire population. That number has continued to rise, while the working-age population is shrinking, meaning there are fewer workers to support the older population.

This demographic shift is happening while China is in the process of trying to transition away from labor-intensive industries like farming and manufacturing into a consumer-driven economy built with high-tech manufacturing. The difficulty is in trying to get richer as a country, while this population shift likely means a slowing economy.

Officials have had limited success with policy changes to incentivize families to have more children. In July, the government announced cash subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($500) per child to families.