Control the Path and Power of Hurricanes like Milton? Forget It, Scientists Say

 Clouds are seen over the beach as Hurricane Milton advances, in Progreso, Mexico, October 7, 2024. (Reuters)
Clouds are seen over the beach as Hurricane Milton advances, in Progreso, Mexico, October 7, 2024. (Reuters)
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Control the Path and Power of Hurricanes like Milton? Forget It, Scientists Say

 Clouds are seen over the beach as Hurricane Milton advances, in Progreso, Mexico, October 7, 2024. (Reuters)
Clouds are seen over the beach as Hurricane Milton advances, in Progreso, Mexico, October 7, 2024. (Reuters)

Hurricanes are humanity’s reminder of the uncontrollable, chaotic power of Earth’s weather.

Milton’s powerful push toward Florida just days after Helene devastated large parts of the Southeast likely has some in the region wondering if they are being targeted. In some corners of the internet, Helene has already sparked conspiracy theories and disinformation suggesting the government somehow aimed the hurricane at Republican voters.

Besides discounting common sense, such theories disregard weather history that shows the hurricanes are hitting many of the same areas they have for centuries. They also presume an ability for humans to quickly reshape the weather far beyond relatively puny efforts such as cloud seeding.

“If meteorologists could stop hurricanes, we would stop hurricanes,” Kristen Corbosiero, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany. “If we could control the weather, we would not want the kind of death and destruction that’s happened.”

Here’s a look at what humans can and can’t do when it comes to weather:

The power of hurricanes, heightened by climate change

A fully developed hurricane releases heat energy that is the equivalent of a 10-megaton nuclear bomb every 20 minutes — more than all the energy used at a given time by humanity, according to National Hurricane Center tropical analysis chief Chris Landsea.

And scientists are now finding many ways climate change is making hurricanes worse, with warmer oceans that add energy and more water in the warming atmosphere to fall as rain, said Chris Field, director of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment.

“The amount of energy a hurricane generates is insane,” said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. It’s the height of human arrogance to think people have the power to change them, he said.

But that hasn't stopped people from trying, or at least thinking about trying.

Historical efforts to control hurricanes have failed

Jim Fleming of Colby College has studied historical efforts to control the weather and thinks humans have nowhere near the practical technology to get there. He described an attempt in 1947 in which General Electric partnered with the US military to drop dry ice from Air Force jets into the path of a hurricane in an attempt to weaken it. It didn't work.

“The typical science goes like understanding, prediction and then possibly control,” Fleming said, noting that the atmosphere is far more powerful and complex than most proposals to control it. “It goes back into Greek mythology to think you can control the powers of the heavens, but also it's a failed idea.”

In the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, the federal government briefly tried Project STORMFURY. The idea was to seed a hurricane to replace its eyewall with a larger one that would make the storm bigger in size but weaker in intensity. Tests were inconclusive and researchers realized if they made the storm larger, people who wouldn’t have been hurt by the storm would now be in danger, which is an ethical and liability problem, the project director once said.

For decades, the National Hurricane Center and its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, have been asked about nuclear-bombing a hurricane. But the bombs aren't powerful enough, and it would add the problem of radioactive fallout, Corbosiero said.

Bringing cooling icebergs or seeding or adding water-absorbing substances also are ideas that just don’t work, NOAA scientists said.

Climate change begets engineering — and lots of questions

Failed historical attempts to control hurricanes differ somewhat from some scientists' futuristic ideas to combat climate change and extreme weather. That's because instead of targeting individual weather events, modern geoengineers would operate on a larger scale — thinking about how to reverse the broad-scale damage humans have already done to the global climate by emitting greenhouse gases.

Scientists in the field say one of the most promising ideas they see based on computer models is solar geoengineering. The method would involve lofting aerosol particles into the upper atmosphere to bounce a tiny bit of sunlight back into space, cooling the planet slightly.

Supporters acknowledge the risks and challenges. But it also "might have quite large benefits, especially for the world’s poorest," said David Keith, a professor at the University of Chicago and founding faculty director of the Climate Systems Engineering initiative.

Two years ago, the largest society of scientists who work on climate issues, the American Geophysical Union, announced it was forming an ethics framework for “climate intervention."

Some scientists warn that tinkering with Earth’s atmosphere to fix climate change is likely to create cascading new problems. Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann expressed worries on the ethics framework that just talking about guidelines will make the tinkering more likely to occur in the real world, something that could have harmful side effects.

Field, of Stanford, agreed that the modeling strongly encourages that geoengineering could be effective, including at mitigating the worst threats of hurricanes, even if that's decades away. But he emphasized that it's just one piece of the best solution, which is to stop climate change by cutting greenhouse gas emissions.

“Whatever else we do, that needs to be the core set of activities,” he said.



Nagasaki Atomic Bomb Survivor, Who Devoted His Life for Peace, Dies at 93

Shigemi Fukahori is interviewed at the Urakami Cathedral in Nagasaki, southern Japan, on July 29, 2020. (Kyodo News via AP, File)
Shigemi Fukahori is interviewed at the Urakami Cathedral in Nagasaki, southern Japan, on July 29, 2020. (Kyodo News via AP, File)
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Nagasaki Atomic Bomb Survivor, Who Devoted His Life for Peace, Dies at 93

Shigemi Fukahori is interviewed at the Urakami Cathedral in Nagasaki, southern Japan, on July 29, 2020. (Kyodo News via AP, File)
Shigemi Fukahori is interviewed at the Urakami Cathedral in Nagasaki, southern Japan, on July 29, 2020. (Kyodo News via AP, File)

Shigemi Fukahori, a survivor of the 1945 Nagasaki atomic bombing, who devoted his life to advocating for peace has died. He was 93.

Fukahori died at a hospital in Nagasaki, southwestern Japan, on Jan. 3, the Urakami Catholic Church, where he prayed almost daily until last year, said on Sunday. Local media reported he died of old age.

The church, located about 500 meters from ground zero and near the Nagasaki Peace Park, is widely seen as a symbol of hope and peace, as its bell tower and some statues and survived the nuclear bombing.

Fukahori was only 14 when the US dropped the bomb on Nagasaki on Aug. 9, 1945, killing tens of thousands of people, including his family. That came three days after the nuclear attack on Hiroshima, which killed 140,000 people. Japan surrendered days later, ending World War II and the country's nearly half-century of aggression across Asia.

Fukahori, who worked at a shipyard about 3 kilometers (2 miles) from where the bomb dropped, couldn’t talk about what happened for years, not only because of the painful memories but also how powerless he felt then.

About 15 years ago, he became more outspoken after encountering, during a visit to Spain, a man who experienced the bombing of Guernica in 1937 during the Spanish Civil War when he was also 14 years old. The shared experience helped Fukahori open up.

“On the day the bomb dropped, I heard a voice asking for help. When I walked over and held out my hand, the person’s skin melted. I still remember how that felt,” Fukahori told Japan’s national broadcaster NHK in 2019.

He often addressed students, hoping they take on what he called “the baton of peace,” in reference to his advocacy.

When Pope Francis visited Nagasaki in 2019, Fukahori was the one who handed him a wreath of white flowers. The following year, Fukahori represented the bomb victims at a ceremony, making his “pledge for peace,” saying: “I am determined to send our message to make Nagasaki the final place where an atomic bomb is ever dropped.”

A wake is scheduled for Sunday, and funeral services on Monday at Urakami Church, where his daughter will represent the family.