UN Says 70% Chance that 2025-2029 Average Warming Will Top 1.5C

A vendor cleans dust from air coolers on display outside a shop as he waits for customers on a hot summer day in Amritsar on May 27, 2025. (Photo by Narinder NANU / AFP)
A vendor cleans dust from air coolers on display outside a shop as he waits for customers on a hot summer day in Amritsar on May 27, 2025. (Photo by Narinder NANU / AFP)
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UN Says 70% Chance that 2025-2029 Average Warming Will Top 1.5C

A vendor cleans dust from air coolers on display outside a shop as he waits for customers on a hot summer day in Amritsar on May 27, 2025. (Photo by Narinder NANU / AFP)
A vendor cleans dust from air coolers on display outside a shop as he waits for customers on a hot summer day in Amritsar on May 27, 2025. (Photo by Narinder NANU / AFP)

The United Nations warned Wednesday there is a 70 percent chance that average warming from 2025 to 2029 will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius international benchmark.

The planet is therefore expected to remain at historic levels of warming after the two hottest years ever recorded in 2023 and 2024, according to an annual climate report published by the World Meteorological Organization, the UN's weather and climate agency.

"We have just experienced the 10 warmest years on record," AFP quoted the WMO's deputy secretary-general, Ko Barrett, as saying.

"Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet."

The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels -- and to 1.5C if possible.

The targets are calculated relative to the 1850-1900 average, before humanity began industrially burning coal, oil, and gas, which emits carbon dioxide (CO2) -- the greenhouse gas largely responsible for climate change.

The more optimistic 1.5C target is one that growing numbers of climate scientists now consider impossible to achieve, as CO2 emissions are still increasing.

The WMO's latest projections are compiled by Britain's Met Office national weather service, based on forecasts from multiple global centres.

The agency forecasts that the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 will be between 1.2C and 1.9C above the pre-industrial average.

It says there is a 70 percent chance that average warming across the 2025-2029 period will exceed 1.5C.

"This is entirely consistent with our proximity to passing 1.5C on a long-term basis in the late 2020s or early 2030s," said Peter Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at the University of Maynooth.

"I would expect in two to three years this probability to be 100 percent" in the five-year outlook, he added.

The WMO says there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (2024).

To smooth out natural climate variations, several methods assess long-term warming, the WMO's climate services director Christopher Hewitt told a press conference.

One approach combines observations from the past 10 years with projections for the next decade.

This predicts that the 20-year average warming for 2015-2034 will be 1.44C.
There is no consensus yet on how best to assess long-term warming.

The EU's climate monitor Copernicus reckons warming currently stands at 1.39C, and projects 1.5C could be reached in mid-2029 or sooner.

Although "exceptionally unlikely" at one percent, there is now an above-zero chance of at least one year in the next five exceeding 2C of warming.

"It's the first time we've ever seen such an event in our computer predictions," said the Met Office's Adam Scaife.

"It is shocking," and "that probability is going to rise".

He recalled that a decade ago, forecasts first showed the very low probability of a calendar year exceeding the 1.5C benchmark. But that came to pass in 2024.

Every fraction of a degree of additional warming can intensify heatwaves, extreme precipitation, droughts, and the melting of ice caps, sea ice, and glaciers.

This year's climate is offering no respite.



Biggest Piece of Mars on Earth is Going Up for Auction in New York

A Martian meteorite, weighing 54.388 lbs. (24.67 kg), said to be the largest piece of Mars on Earth, estimated at $2 - 4 million, is displayed at Sotheby's, in New York, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, part of their Geek Week auction, July 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
A Martian meteorite, weighing 54.388 lbs. (24.67 kg), said to be the largest piece of Mars on Earth, estimated at $2 - 4 million, is displayed at Sotheby's, in New York, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, part of their Geek Week auction, July 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
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Biggest Piece of Mars on Earth is Going Up for Auction in New York

A Martian meteorite, weighing 54.388 lbs. (24.67 kg), said to be the largest piece of Mars on Earth, estimated at $2 - 4 million, is displayed at Sotheby's, in New York, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, part of their Geek Week auction, July 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
A Martian meteorite, weighing 54.388 lbs. (24.67 kg), said to be the largest piece of Mars on Earth, estimated at $2 - 4 million, is displayed at Sotheby's, in New York, Wednesday, July 9, 2025, part of their Geek Week auction, July 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

For sale: A 54-pound (25-kilogram) rock. Estimated auction price: $2 million to $4 million. Why so expensive? It's the largest piece of Mars ever found on Earth.

Sotheby's in New York will be auctioning what's known as NWA 16788 on Wednesday as part of a natural history-themed sale that also includes a juvenile Ceratosaurus dinosaur skeleton that's more than 6 feet (2 meters) tall and nearly 11 feet (3 meters) long, The Associated Press reported.

According to the auction house, the meteorite is believed to have been blown off the surface of Mars by a massive asteroid strike before traveling 140 million miles (225 million kilometers) to Earth, where it crashed into the Sahara. A meteorite hunter found it in Niger in November 2023, Sotheby's says.

The red, brown and gray hunk is about 70% larger than the next largest piece of Mars found on Earth and represents nearly 7% of all the Martian material currently on this planet, Sotheby's says. It measures nearly 15 inches by 11 inches by 6 inches (375 millimeters by 279 millimeters by 152 millimeters).

"This Martian meteorite is the largest piece of Mars we have ever found by a long shot," Cassandra Hatton, vice chairman for science and natural history at Sotheby's, said in an interview. "So it´s more than double the size of what we previously thought was the largest piece of Mars."

It is also a rare find. There are only 400 Martian meteorites out of the more than 77,000 officially recognized meteorites found on Earth, Sotheby's says.

Hatton said a small piece of the red planet remnant was removed and sent to a specialized lab that confirmed it is from Mars. It was compared with the distinct chemical composition of Martian meteorites discovered during the Viking space probe that landed on Mars in 1976, she said.

The examination found that it is an "olivine-microgabbroic shergottite," a type of Martian rock formed from the slow cooling of Martian magma. It has a course-grained texture and contains the minerals pyroxene and olivine, Sotheby's says.

It also has a glassy surface, likely due to the high heat that burned it when it fell through Earth's atmosphere, Hatton said. "So that was their first clue that this wasn't just some big rock on the ground," she said.

The meteorite previously was on exhibit at the Italian Space Agency in Rome. Sotheby's did not disclose the owner.

It's not clear exactly when the meteorite hit Earth, but testing shows it probably happened in recent years, Sotheby's said.

The juvenile Ceratosaurus nasicornis skeleton was found in 1996 near Laramie, Wyoming, at Bone Cabin Quarry, a gold mine for dinosaur bones. Specialists assembled nearly 140 fossil bones with some sculpted materials to recreate the skeleton and mounted it so it's ready to exhibit, Sotheby's says.

The skeleton is believed to be from the late Jurassic period, about 150 million years ago, Sotheby's says. It's auction estimate is $4 million to $6 million.

Ceratosaurus dinosaurs were bipeds with short arms that appear similar to the Tyrannosaurus rex, but smaller. Ceratosaurus dinosaurs could grow up to 25 feet (7.6 meters) long, while the Tyrannosaurs rex could be 40 feet (12 meters) long.

The skeleton was acquired last year by Fossilogic, a Utah-based fossil preparation and mounting company.

Wednesday's auction is part of Sotheby's Geek Week 2025 and features 122 items, including other meteorites, fossils and gem-quality minerals.