Since the beginning of 2023, Iran has moved very actively in the diplomatic arena, seeking to break its isolation, especially in the Middle East region, while strengthening its ties with China and Russia, through reconciliation with a number of neighboring countries and reducing tension with Western states.
However, doubts remain over Tehran’s possibility to reach an agreement with Washington, according to an analysis published by AFP on Wednesday.
Sanam Vakil, director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program, was quoted by the news agency as saying that Tehran was seeking to show it can overcome its adversaries.
Iran is “looking to show that despite sanctions and domestic protests it continues to weather the storm by bolstering stronger international economic and foreign ties”, she said.
“These links... aim to increase economic connectivity and boost internal morale.”
Recently, Tehran and Washington have relied on extreme secrecy about the progress of indirect talks between them under the auspices of the Sultanate of Oman, the traditional mediator between the two countries that do exchange diplomatic relations.
At stake are “agreements focused on easing tensions through the de-escalation of Iran’s nuclear program and release of US prisoners” held in Iran, said Diako Hosseini, a Tehran-based foreign policy analyst, as quoted by AFP.
In the long term, Tehran hopes that these small diplomatic steps will allow to revive the economy battered by Western sanctions and record inflation that weighs on the purchasing power of the 85 million Iranians.
According to the AFP analysis, the countries of the region will look favorably at the signs of detente between the Iranians and the Americans, given their keenness to calm the tensions resulting from the conflicts in Yemen and Syria.
This desire constitutes one of the main motives for the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which took shape after a seven-year rupture.
Since then, Iran has sought to cement or restore ties with other Arab countries including Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, the AFP report emphasized.
“New World Order”
In parallel, a certain detente is emerging with European countries after months of tensions since nationwide protests erupted in Iran over the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd, in September.
In recent weeks, Iran has released six Europeans it was holding and has held nuclear talks with Britain, France and Germany, the three European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal.
However, Western countries have a new objection against Iran, represented by its support for Moscow in the war on Ukraine. These countries accuse Tehran of providing Moscow with drones and helping it build a factory to produce them, which Tehran denies.
Iran is also eyeing China, hoping to attract large Chinese investments, the level of which remains low, despite the many promises. For the first time in twenty years, in February, the Iranian president paid a visit to Beijing, where his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, hailed the “solidarity” between the two countries.
Iran, which aspires to be one of the pillars of a “new world order”, is trying to expand its sphere of influence in Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America, according to the AFP analysis.
The analyst Hosseini believes Iran “is turning to countries that are not considered in the western bloc... to show that the West's influence on Iran and its economy is not major”.
