W.Africa Military Chiefs to Discuss Niger Crisis This Week

 Men blow into vuvuzelas while waving Russian and Niger flags as they head towards concert in support to Niger's National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) at the General Seyni Kountche Stadium in Niamey on August 13, 2023. (AFP)
Men blow into vuvuzelas while waving Russian and Niger flags as they head towards concert in support to Niger's National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) at the General Seyni Kountche Stadium in Niamey on August 13, 2023. (AFP)
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W.Africa Military Chiefs to Discuss Niger Crisis This Week

 Men blow into vuvuzelas while waving Russian and Niger flags as they head towards concert in support to Niger's National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) at the General Seyni Kountche Stadium in Niamey on August 13, 2023. (AFP)
Men blow into vuvuzelas while waving Russian and Niger flags as they head towards concert in support to Niger's National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) at the General Seyni Kountche Stadium in Niamey on August 13, 2023. (AFP)

Military chiefs from the West African bloc ECOWAS will meet in Ghana this week to discuss possible intervention in Niger, military and political sources in the region said Tuesday.

The meeting on Thursday and Friday -- originally scheduled for last weekend but then postponed -- came after ECOWAS leaders last week approved deployment of a "standby force to restore constitutional order" in Niger, whose president was toppled on July 26.

Their summit, held in the Nigerian capital Abuja last Thursday, also reaffirmed the bloc's preference for a diplomatic outcome.

President Mohamed Bazoum's election in 2021 was a landmark in Niger's history, ushering in the country's first peaceful transfer of power since independence from France in 1960.

His ousting unleashed a shock wave around West Africa, where Mali and Burkina Faso -- likewise battered by an extremist insurgency -- have also suffered military takeovers.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) gave Niger's military rulers a one-week ultimatum on July 30 to restore Bazoum or face the potential use of force, but the deadline expired without action.

Analysts say military intervention would be operationally risky and politically hazardous, given divisions within ECOWAS ranks and domestic criticism.

In Benin, people living at Malanville -- the country's sole border crossing with Niger -- said Tuesday that a shipping container had been placed on the Nigerien side of the border to block the road, apparently to act as a barrier against invasion.

Defiance and diplomacy

Niger's military regime has sent mixed signals since the crisis erupted.

At the weekend, the coup leaders said they were open to a diplomatic push after their chief, General Abdourahamane Tiani, met with Nigerian religious mediators.

Those talks came after the ECOWAS military meeting in Ghana was postponed for "technical reasons".

But on Sunday night, Niger's rulers declared they had gathered sufficient evidence to prosecute Bazoum for "high treason and undermining internal and external security".

The legal threat was angrily condemned by ECOWAS, which lashed it as a contradiction of the regime's "reported willingness" to explore peaceful means. Washington said it was "incredibly dismayed".

The row overshadowed talks under African Union (AU) auspices that began on Monday in Addis Ababa, bringing together representatives from the regime and ECOWAS.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called for a "peaceful political and diplomatic" resolution to the crisis in a phone call with Mali's junta leader, Assimi Goita, the Kremlin said on Tuesday.

Mali has cemented an alliance with Moscow since its coup in 2020, acquiring Russian planes and helicopters and bringing in paramilitaries that the West says are Wagner mercenaries.

Poor and unstable

A landlocked nation in the heart of the arid Sahel, Niger is one of the world's poorest and most turbulent countries.

Bazoum, 63, survived two attempted coups before being ousted, in the fifth putsch in the country's history.

His ousting deals a huge blow to French and US strategy in the Sahel.

France refocused its anti-extremist operations on Niger after withdrawing from Mali and Burkina Faso last year following a bust-up with their juntas.

International concern is mounting for the state of Bazoum, his wife and son, who have been held at the president's official residence since the coup.

Niger meanwhile is being hit by ECOWAS trade and financial sanctions, while France, Germany and the United States have suspended their aid programs.

The Sahel Alliance, an international platform to attract development assistance for the region, on Tuesday called for a return to civilian rule and expressed concern for the impact of the coup on vulnerable populations.



France Has a New Government, Again. Politics and Crushing Debt Complicate Next Steps

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)
France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)
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France Has a New Government, Again. Politics and Crushing Debt Complicate Next Steps

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)
France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)

France’s president and prime minister managed to form a new government just in time for the holidays. Now comes the hard part.

Crushing debt, intensifying pressure from the nationalist far right, wars in Europe and the Middle East: Challenges abound for President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Francois Bayrou after an already tumultuous 2024.

What's wrong with French finances? The most urgent order of business is passing a 2025 budget. Financial markets, ratings agencies and the European Commission are pushing France to bring down its deficit, to comply with EU rules limiting debt and keep France’s borrowing costs from spiraling. That would threaten the stability and prosperity of all countries that share the euro currency.

France’s debt is currently estimated at a staggering 112% of gross domestic product. It grew further after the government gave aid payments to businesses and workers during COVID-19 lockdowns even as the pandemic depressed growth, and capped household energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. The bill is now coming due.

But France’s previous government collapsed this month because Marine Le Pen’s far-right party and left-wing lawmakers opposed 60 billion euros in spending cuts and tax hikes in the original 2025 budget plan. Bayrou and new Finance Minister Eric Lombard are expected to scale back some of those promises, but the calculations are tough.

“The political situation is difficult. The international situation is dangerous, and the economic context is fragile,” Lombard, a low-profile banker who advised a Socialist government in the 1990s, said upon taking office.

“The environmental emergency, the social emergency, developing our businesses — these innumerable challenges require us to treat our endemic illness: the deficit,” he said. “The more we are indebted, the more the debt costs, and the more it suffocates the country.”

How long will this government last? This is France’s fourth government in the past year. No party has a parliamentary majority and the new Cabinet can only survive with the support of lawmakers on the center-right and center-left.

Le Pen — Macron’s fiercest rival — was instrumental in ousting the previous government by joining left-wing forces in a no-confidence vote. Bayrou consulted her when forming the new government and Le Pen remains a powerful force.

That angers left-wing groups, who had expected more influence in the new Cabinet, and who say promised spending cuts will hurt working-class families and small businesses hardest. Left-wing voters, meanwhile, feel betrayed ever since a coalition from the left won the most seats in the summer's snap legislative elections but failed to secure a government.

The possibility of a new no-confidence vote looms, though it's not clear how many parties would support it.

What about Macron? Macron has repeatedly said he will remain president until his term expires in 2027.

But France's constitution and current structure, dating from 1958 and called the Fifth Republic, were designed to ensure stability after a period of turmoil. If this new government collapses within months and the country remains in political paralysis, pressure will mount for Macron to step down and call early elections.

Le Pen's ascendant National Rally is intent on bringing Macron down. But Le Pen faces her own headaches: A March court ruling over alleged illegal party financing could see her barred from running for office.

What else is on the agenda? The National Rally and hard-right Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau want tougher immigration rules. But Bayrou wants to focus on making existing rules work. “There are plenty of (immigration) laws that exist. None is being applied,” he said Monday on broadcaster BFM-TV, to criticism from conservatives.

Military spending is a key issue amid fears about European security and pressure from US President-elect Donald Trump for Europe to spend more on its own defense. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who champions military aid for Ukraine and ramping up weapons production, kept his job and stressed in a statement Tuesday the need to face down “accumulating threats” against France.

More immediately, Macron wants an emergency law in early January to allow sped-up reconstruction of the cyclone-ravaged French territory of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean off Africa. Thousands of people are in emergency shelters and authorities are still counting the dead more than a week after the devastation.

Meanwhile the government in the restive French South Pacific territory of New Caledonia collapsed Tuesday in a wave of resignations by pro-independence figures — another challenge for the new overseas affairs minister, Manuel Valls, and the incoming Cabinet.