More than 70% of Nagorno-Karabakh's Population Flees

A local rides a horse (R, back) as ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh cross the border with Azerbaijan on a bus with their belongings, near the village of Kornidzor, Armenia, 29 September 2023. EPA/ANATOLY MALTSEV
A local rides a horse (R, back) as ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh cross the border with Azerbaijan on a bus with their belongings, near the village of Kornidzor, Armenia, 29 September 2023. EPA/ANATOLY MALTSEV
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More than 70% of Nagorno-Karabakh's Population Flees

A local rides a horse (R, back) as ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh cross the border with Azerbaijan on a bus with their belongings, near the village of Kornidzor, Armenia, 29 September 2023. EPA/ANATOLY MALTSEV
A local rides a horse (R, back) as ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh cross the border with Azerbaijan on a bus with their belongings, near the village of Kornidzor, Armenia, 29 September 2023. EPA/ANATOLY MALTSEV

More than 70% of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh has fled the ethnic Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan for neighboring Armenia, the Armenian government said Friday, as the enclave's separatist government said it will dissolve itself by the end of the year after a three-decade bid for independence.

Armenian officials said that 84,770 people had left Nagorno-Karabakh by Friday morning out of a total population of around 120,000.

The mass exodus that began Sunday raises questions about Azerbaijan’s plans for Nagorno-Karabakh following its lightning offensive last week to reclaim the breakaway region, and demand that its militants disarm and its separatist government disband.

Some people have lined up for days to get out of Nagorno-Karabakh as the only road to Armenia quickly filled up with vehicles, creating a major traffic jam on the winding mountain road.

Armenian Health Minister Anahit Avanesyan said that some people, including the elderly, had died while on the road to Armenia, because they were “exhausted due to malnutrition, left without even taking medicine with them, and were on the road for more than 40 hours.”

On Thursday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan noted the departure of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh and alleged it was “a direct act of an ethnic cleansing and depriving people of their motherland.” Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry strongly rejected Pashinyan’s accusations, calling the departure of Armenians “their personal and individual decision and has nothing to do with forced relocation.”

In the 1990s, the Azerbaijani population was itself expelled from Nagorno-Karabakh and hundreds of thousands of people were displaced within Azerbaijan. As part of its “Great Return” program, the government in Baku has already relocated Azerbaijanis to territories recaptured from Nagorno-Karabakh forces in a 2020 war.

Analysts believe Azerbaijan could expand the program and resettle Nagorno-Karabakh with Azerbaijanis, while stating that ethnic Armenians could stay or exercise a right to return in order to “refute accusations that Karabakh Armenians have been ethnically cleansed,” Broers said.

A decree signed by the region’s separatist president, Samvel Shakhramanyan, cited a Sept. 20 agreement to end the fighting under which Azerbaijan will allow the “free, voluntary and unhindered movement” of Nagorno-Karabakh’s residents to Armenia.

On Thursday, Azerbaijani authorities charged Ruben Vardanyan, the former head of Nagorno-Karabakh’s separatist government, with financing terrorism, creating illegal armed formations and illegally crossing a state border. He was detained on Wednesday by Azerbaijani border guards as he was trying to leave Nagorno-Karabakh for Armenia along with tens of thousands of others.



Biden’s Long-Awaited Africa Trip to Tout a Win against China

US President Joe Biden boards Air Force One as he departs for Luanda, Angola, from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, December 1, 2024. (Reuters)
US President Joe Biden boards Air Force One as he departs for Luanda, Angola, from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, December 1, 2024. (Reuters)
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Biden’s Long-Awaited Africa Trip to Tout a Win against China

US President Joe Biden boards Air Force One as he departs for Luanda, Angola, from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, December 1, 2024. (Reuters)
US President Joe Biden boards Air Force One as he departs for Luanda, Angola, from Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, December 1, 2024. (Reuters)

Joe Biden headed to Angola on Sunday for a trip that will deliver on a promise to visit Africa during his presidency and focus on a major US-backed railway project that aims to divert critical minerals away from China.

The project, partly funded with a US loan, links the resource-rich Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia to the Angolan port of Lobito on the Atlantic Ocean, offering a fast and efficient route for exports to the West.

At stake are vast supplies of minerals like copper and cobalt, which are found in Congo and are a key component of batteries and other electronics. China is the top player in Congo, which has become an increasing concern to Washington.

China signed an agreement with Tanzania and Zambia in September to revive a rival railway line to Africa's eastern coast.

While Biden's trip is taking place in the waning days of his presidency, Donald Trump will likely back the railway and remain a close partner to Angola when he returns to the White House in January, according to two officials who served under the previous Trump administration.

Tibor Nagy, a retired career ambassador and top envoy to Africa under the last Trump administration, said Trump will likely have two overarching concerns regarding Africa. The first is competition with China and Russia, the second is access to critical minerals.

"This checks both boxes," he said in an interview, referring to the Lobito Atlantic Railway.

The project is backed by global commodities trader Trafigura, Portuguese construction group Mota-Engil and railway operator Vecturis. The US Development Finance Corporation has provided a $550 million loan to refurbish the 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) rail network from Lobito to Congo.

Biden was set to land briefly in West Africa's Cape Verde on Monday morning, and meet Prime Minister Ulisses Correia e Silva there before flying on to Angola, the White House said. He will visit the National Museum of Slavery in the capital Luanda during the two-day trip and stop at the Lobito port on Wednesday.

His trip delivers on one of a sweeping set of pledges to Africa. Others remain unrealized, such as gaining two permanent seats for Africa at the UN Security Council.

Beyond the railway project, Washington has also done little to advance access to vast reserves of African minerals it says are critical for national security and has racked up other diplomatic setbacks.

This summer, it lost America's major spy base in Niger and has not been able to find an ally that will host those assets. This leaves the US without a military foothold in the vast Sahel region that has become a hotspot of extremist militancy.

Angola has long nurtured close ties with China and Russia but has recently moved closer to the West. Angolan officials say they are keen to work with any partner that can advance their agenda to promote economic growth and hope the project spurs investment in a range of sectors.

"China has only gained prominence because Western countries have probably not been paying much attention to Africa," Angola's transport minister, Ricardo Viegas d’Abreu, said in an interview.

GROWING TIES WITH ANGOLA

Biden's visit reflects a turnabout in US ties with Angola after a complicated and bloody history. The US and the Soviet Union backed rival sides in the nation's 27-year civil war. Washington established relations with Angola in 1993, almost two decades after it gained independence.

"It's probably poetic justice that the United States should finance the rehabilitation of this route to which it had contributed destruction so many decades ago," said Akashambatwa Mbikusita-Lewanika, a former Zambian government minister who also ran part of the railway that is to form the Lobito corridor.

Biden administration officials have said the Lobito rail project is not a one-off, but a test run to prove the private-public partnership works, and it will lead to other major infrastructure projects in Africa. They also hope it will deepen US ties with Angola, including in security cooperation.

Critics have questioned whether the project, which has no date for completion, will deliver the promised goals. A particular source of scrutiny is a second phase which would connect the railway to Africa's east coast through to Tanzania, potentially offering a rival route to China.

Judd Devermont, until recently Biden’s top Africa adviser, said Congo wants to diversify its mining partners and rejected the idea that connecting the project to an eastern port in Tanzania undermines the effort to loosen Beijing’s grip on Congo's minerals.

“The Congolese have been very clear that they don’t want to see their entire mining sector dominated by China,” he said in an interview. “It benefits everyone if there’s an easy way to move across the continent, whether that’s critical minerals or just moving stuff from India to Brazil to New York.”