US, South Korea Revise Deterrence Strategy, Boost Drills Over North Korea Threat 

A handout photo made available by the South Korea Ministry of Defense shows US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (L) shakes hands with South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik (R) prior their meeting for the 55th Security Consultation Meeting (SCM) at the Defense Ministry in Seoul, South Korea, 13 November 2023. (EPA/South Korea Ministry of Defense/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the South Korea Ministry of Defense shows US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (L) shakes hands with South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik (R) prior their meeting for the 55th Security Consultation Meeting (SCM) at the Defense Ministry in Seoul, South Korea, 13 November 2023. (EPA/South Korea Ministry of Defense/Handout)
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US, South Korea Revise Deterrence Strategy, Boost Drills Over North Korea Threat 

A handout photo made available by the South Korea Ministry of Defense shows US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (L) shakes hands with South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik (R) prior their meeting for the 55th Security Consultation Meeting (SCM) at the Defense Ministry in Seoul, South Korea, 13 November 2023. (EPA/South Korea Ministry of Defense/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the South Korea Ministry of Defense shows US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (L) shakes hands with South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik (R) prior their meeting for the 55th Security Consultation Meeting (SCM) at the Defense Ministry in Seoul, South Korea, 13 November 2023. (EPA/South Korea Ministry of Defense/Handout)

South Korea and the United States on Monday revised a bilateral security agreement aimed at deterring North Korea's advancing nuclear and missile threats, and vowed to maintain pressure on Pyongyang despite global distractions.

The Tailored Deterrence Strategy (TDS) is aimed at countering North Korea's nuclear weapons and other arms, according to an announcement on the agreement by the two countries 10 years ago.

South Korea's Defense Minister Shin Won-sik and his US counterpart, Lloyd Austin, signed the updated agreement at the security talks in Seoul, the defense ministry said.

The revision was considered necessary because the existing strategy did not adequately address rapid advancements in North Korea's missile and nuclear programs, it said.

The Defense Ministry did not immediately specify what had been updated.

Earlier, South Korea's defense ministry said Shin and Austin would discuss jointly countering threats by North Korea, including through executing an "extended deterrence" strategy.

The strategy, which holds that the United States will use strategic military assets, including nuclear forces, to defend its allies, has taken on a greater significance as North Korea pushes ahead with its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

The two leaders said they agreed to boost joint drills, as well as cooperation with Japan, to deter and better prepare for any North Korean attack.

Austin said recent visits by a US nuclear ballistic missile submarine and a B-52 to South Korea were "milestones" in deterrence efforts and that the tempo of such deployments could continue despite other global crises.

"We will continue to do the things that we've promised to do," Austin said, adding that over the past year the US military had deployed more to the Indo-Pacific region than in the past and was "more capable to respond to anything that could happen".

Shin said the two countries have been upgrading security cooperation, including the launch of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) and bolstering the execution of the extended deterrence strategy, Yonhap news reported.

The nuclear discussions are aimed at better coordinating an allied nuclear response during a war with North Korea.

Recent changes in North Korean and Chinese capabilities and intentions are likely to "dramatically" increase the risk that US and South Korean deterrence could fail within the next decade, and the allies must undertake major steps to strengthen deterrence, the Atlantic Council think tank said in a study last week.

That study, which convened more than 100 experts, found that although an all-out nuclear attack is the least likely scenario, Pyongyang could feel emboldened to escalate with more limited military actions, including possible nuclear strikes.

The Israel-Hamas war and Russia's invasion of Ukraine also cast a shadow over Monday's meeting amid Pyongyang's growing military cooperation with Moscow and questions about the North's support for Hamas militants.

On Sunday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said at a dinner that the allies must stand ready for any provocations by North Korea, including a "Hamas-style surprise attack".

At the reception, Austin reaffirmed that the US commitment to defending South Korea involved the full range of American military capabilities, Yoon's office said.

The defense meetings come as North Korea is believed to be preparing to launch a military reconnaissance satellite after two failures.

Pyongyang is also accused of shipping munitions to Russia for use in the war with Ukraine in return for technical support to help its weapons programs.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a recent summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that Russia would help North Korea build satellites, but did not elaborate.

The defense chiefs from South Korea, Japan and the United States agreed on Sunday to start a real-time data sharing scheme on North Korean missiles in December, South Korea's defense ministry said.

"We're seeing more trilateral cooperation than we've ever seen," Austin told a briefing on Monday, hinting at announcements in the coming weeks.



Washington: A Final Warning to Tehran Before Military Action

US President Biden speaks to journalists at the White House, on Thursday. (DPA)
US President Biden speaks to journalists at the White House, on Thursday. (DPA)
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Washington: A Final Warning to Tehran Before Military Action

US President Biden speaks to journalists at the White House, on Thursday. (DPA)
US President Biden speaks to journalists at the White House, on Thursday. (DPA)

In a strikingly timed development, leaks and writings have emerged about discussions in the White House regarding potential military options to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities. These deliberations were reportedly in preparation for the scenario where Tehran moves toward producing a nuclear weapon before January 20, the date President-elect Donald Trump is set to assume office.

According to Axios, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan presented President Joe Biden with a range of options and scenarios in a confidential meeting several weeks ago. While no new intelligence prompted the meeting and no definitive decision was made, it was part of a contingency planning process in case Iran enriches uranium to 90% purity before Trump’s inauguration. Despite the lack of active discussions on military action, some of Biden’s senior advisors believe the potential acceleration of Iran’s nuclear program, especially following Iran and its proxies’ weakened state in the ongoing conflict with Israel, could compel the US to act.

Biden’s advisors, including Sullivan, reportedly view the degradation of Iran’s air defenses and missile capabilities, coupled with the diminished strength of its regional proxies, as factors that improve the chances of a successful strike while minimizing the risks of Iranian retaliation or regional escalation. An American official clarified that Sullivan did not recommend a strike, and Biden has not approved any military action.

This leak has been interpreted as a stern warning from Washington to Tehran, particularly to its hardline factions, which dominate the domestic power struggle and push for confrontation, including potential shifts in Iran’s nuclear doctrine.

Matthew Levitt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated that the Biden administration has been concerned about Tehran exploiting the final days of Biden’s term to advance its nuclear weapons program. To address these fears, a contingency plan was developed, Levitt told Asharq Al-Awsat.

The US Military Stands Ready

Richard Nephew, former deputy special envoy for Iran during the Biden administration, argued that while diplomacy might still offer hope, the US must prepare to use military force if negotiations fail. Nephew warned that a maximum pressure strategy to weaken Iran and force it into talks might provoke Tehran to conceal its nuclear materials, build a bomb, or withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Nephew emphasized that striking Iran’s nuclear program could yield strategic benefits beyond simply preventing a dangerous adversary from acquiring nuclear weapons. Such an action could deplete Tehran’s already limited resources, further strain its ability to threaten US interests, and force it to balance rebuilding its nuclear program with replenishing Hezbollah, restoring its missile stockpiles, and addressing its crippling economic challenges—all under continued sanctions.

However, Nephew cautioned that a single strike might not be sufficient to significantly weaken Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Achieving this objective could require multiple rounds of strikes, a prolonged US military presence, and an expanded scope of attacks targeting Iranian decision-makers beyond nuclear facilities.