In a strikingly timed development, leaks and writings have emerged about discussions in the White House regarding potential military options to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities. These deliberations were reportedly in preparation for the scenario where Tehran moves toward producing a nuclear weapon before January 20, the date President-elect Donald Trump is set to assume office.
According to Axios, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan presented President Joe Biden with a range of options and scenarios in a confidential meeting several weeks ago. While no new intelligence prompted the meeting and no definitive decision was made, it was part of a contingency planning process in case Iran enriches uranium to 90% purity before Trump’s inauguration. Despite the lack of active discussions on military action, some of Biden’s senior advisors believe the potential acceleration of Iran’s nuclear program, especially following Iran and its proxies’ weakened state in the ongoing conflict with Israel, could compel the US to act.
Biden’s advisors, including Sullivan, reportedly view the degradation of Iran’s air defenses and missile capabilities, coupled with the diminished strength of its regional proxies, as factors that improve the chances of a successful strike while minimizing the risks of Iranian retaliation or regional escalation. An American official clarified that Sullivan did not recommend a strike, and Biden has not approved any military action.
This leak has been interpreted as a stern warning from Washington to Tehran, particularly to its hardline factions, which dominate the domestic power struggle and push for confrontation, including potential shifts in Iran’s nuclear doctrine.
Matthew Levitt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, stated that the Biden administration has been concerned about Tehran exploiting the final days of Biden’s term to advance its nuclear weapons program. To address these fears, a contingency plan was developed, Levitt told Asharq Al-Awsat.
The US Military Stands Ready
Richard Nephew, former deputy special envoy for Iran during the Biden administration, argued that while diplomacy might still offer hope, the US must prepare to use military force if negotiations fail. Nephew warned that a maximum pressure strategy to weaken Iran and force it into talks might provoke Tehran to conceal its nuclear materials, build a bomb, or withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Nephew emphasized that striking Iran’s nuclear program could yield strategic benefits beyond simply preventing a dangerous adversary from acquiring nuclear weapons. Such an action could deplete Tehran’s already limited resources, further strain its ability to threaten US interests, and force it to balance rebuilding its nuclear program with replenishing Hezbollah, restoring its missile stockpiles, and addressing its crippling economic challenges—all under continued sanctions.
However, Nephew cautioned that a single strike might not be sufficient to significantly weaken Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Achieving this objective could require multiple rounds of strikes, a prolonged US military presence, and an expanded scope of attacks targeting Iranian decision-makers beyond nuclear facilities.
