China, Taiwan Opposition Warn of Threat to Peace from Ruling Party Candidate

A poster of Taiwan's most likely presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te, appears on a bus in Taipei (AFP)
A poster of Taiwan's most likely presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te, appears on a bus in Taipei (AFP)
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China, Taiwan Opposition Warn of Threat to Peace from Ruling Party Candidate

A poster of Taiwan's most likely presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te, appears on a bus in Taipei (AFP)
A poster of Taiwan's most likely presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te, appears on a bus in Taipei (AFP)

China and Taiwan's largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), warned on Thursday of the danger Taiwan's ruling party presidential candidate Lai Ching-te could pose to peace if he wins the election this weekend.

Taiwan will hold a pivotal presidential and parliamentary election on Saturday, which is being closely watched internationally amid geopolitical tensions. China claims Taiwan as its own territory, to the objections of Taiwan's government.

China has not publicly nominated a preferred candidate or specified what the right choice is, but has framed the vote as a decision between war and peace.

China and the KMT have said the Democratic Progressive Party's Lai is a dangerous supporter of the island's formal independence. Lai has repeatedly offered talks with China but has been rebuffed. He says only Taiwan's people can decide their future.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office said in a statement that Lai is an "obstinate Taiwan independence worker" and that if he came to power he would further promote separatist activities.

"I sincerely hope the majority of Taiwan compatriots recognize the extreme harm of the DPP's 'Taiwan independence' line and the extreme danger of Lai Ching-te's triggering of cross-Strait confrontation and conflict, and to make the right choice at the crossroads of cross-Strait relations," it said.

There was no immediate response from Lai’s campaign team, according to Reuters.

Taiwan's Foreign Ministry responded by condemning China for "once again blatantly intimidating the Taiwanese people and the international community" and seeking to affect the election.

China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control and has during the past four years stepped up military activity around the island, regularly sending warplanes and warships into the Taiwan Strait.

The KMT, which traditionally favors closer ties with China but denies being pro-Beijing, has also denounced Lai as an independence supporter.

Speaking to foreign reporters in Taipei's sister city, New Taipei, on Thursday, KMT vice presidential candidate Jaw Shaw-kong said that if Lai won, tensions would most likely rise even before May 20, when President Tsai Ing-wen hands over power to her successor.

"Tsai Ing-wen is more low key, not shouting every day about 'I'm for Taiwan independence' and the Taiwan Strait is already so tense. If Lai Ching-te wins, do you think the cross-strait situation will be better than it is now?"

Lai said on Tuesday that he would maintain the status quo in the strait and pursue peace through strength if elected, remaining open to engagement with Beijing under the preconditions of equality and dignity.

Referring to Lai's comments, China's Taiwan Affairs Office said Taiwan independence is "incompatible with peace".

Lai has said he does not seek to change Taiwan's formal name, the Republic of China. The republican government fled to the island in 1949 after losing a civil war with Mao Zedong's Communists, who established the People's Republic of China.

The DPP has portrayed the KMT and its presidential candidate, Hou Yu-ih, as pro-Beijing.

Hou, sitting next to Jaw, said he wouldn't touch the issue of "unification" with China during his term in office if elected, while maintaining the status quo and encouraging communication with China but also opposing the "one country, two systems" autonomy model Beijing has offered to Taiwan.

"I firmly uphold Taiwan's democratic and free system; this is the middle path that Taiwan should take," Hou said, pledging to ensure strong defenses to give China pause if it were considering an attack. "When the Taiwan Strait is stable, Taiwan is safe, and the world can be at ease."



Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida to Resign, Paving Way for New Leader 

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during a press conference at his office in Tokyo to announce he will not run in the upcoming party leadership vote in September, Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024. (Japan Pool/Kyodo News via AP)
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during a press conference at his office in Tokyo to announce he will not run in the upcoming party leadership vote in September, Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024. (Japan Pool/Kyodo News via AP)
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Japan’s Prime Minister Kishida to Resign, Paving Way for New Leader 

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during a press conference at his office in Tokyo to announce he will not run in the upcoming party leadership vote in September, Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024. (Japan Pool/Kyodo News via AP)
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during a press conference at his office in Tokyo to announce he will not run in the upcoming party leadership vote in September, Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024. (Japan Pool/Kyodo News via AP)

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he will step down next month, succumbing to public disaffection over political scandals and rising living costs that marred his three-year term, and triggering a contest to replace him.

"Politics cannot function without public trust. I made this heavy decision thinking of the public, with the strong will to push political reform forward," he said in a press conference to announce his decision not to seek re-election as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader.

The LDP will hold a contest in September to replace him as president of the ruling party, and by extension as the prime minister of Japan.

Kishida ratings started to slide rapidly after he took office in 2021 following revelations about the LDP's ties to the controversial Unification Church. His popularity took a further hit as a slush fund of unrecorded political donations made at LDP fundraising events came to light.

He also faced public discontent over the failure of wages to keep pace with rising living costs as the country finally shook off years of deflationary pressure.

"An LDP incumbent prime minister cannot run in the presidential race unless he's assured of a victory. It's like the grand champion yokozunas of sumo. You don't just win, but you need to win with grace," said Koichi Nakano, political science professor at Sophia University.

Whoever succeeds Kishida as LDP leader must restore the public's confidence in the party and tackle the rising cost of living, escalating geopolitical tensions with China, and the potential return of Donald Trump as US president next year.

MONETARY POLICY AND MILITARY BUILDUP

Through his stint as the country's eighth-longest serving post-war leader, Kishida broke from previous economic policy by eschewing corporate profit-driven trickle-down economics in favor of policies aimed at boosting household incomes, including wage hikes and promoting share ownership.

He led Japan out of the COVID pandemic with massive stimulus spending and also appointed academic Kazuo Ueda as head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to guide Japan out of his predecessor's radical monetary stimulus.

The BOJ in July unexpectedly raised interest rates as inflation took hold, contributing to stock market instability and sending the yen sharply higher.

Kishida's departure could mean tighter fiscal and monetary conditions depending on the candidate, according to Shoki Omori, chief Japan desk strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"In short, risk-assets, particularly equities, will likely be hit the most," he said.

Kishida's premiership was also marked by a rapidly changing security environment which pushed Japan to revisit its traditionally pacifist policy.

He unveiled Japan's biggest military buildup since World War Two with a commitment to double defense spending aimed at deterring neighboring China from pursuing its territorial ambitions in East Asia through military force.

With prodding from Washington, Kishida also mended Japan's strained relations with South Korea, enabling the two countries and their mutual ally, the US, to pursue deeper security co-operation to counter the threat posed by North Korea's missile and nuclear weapons programs.

"Personally, I wish he continued a little bit more as prime minister. Maybe he was stressed (with the low ratings), and with all the circumstances around him, I guess he has no choice but to step down," said Naoya Okamoto, a 22-year-old office worker in Tokyo.

NEXT LEADER

Former defense minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has already thrown his hat into the ring as a prospective replacement for Kishida, saying he would like to "fulfil his duty" if he gathers enough support, according to public broadcaster NHK.

Other names that have been floated as potential contenders include Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, Digital Minister Taro Kono, and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi.

Experts say that the LDP will have to pick a fresh face that breaks from the scandals that have mired the party recently to survive a general election, which is due by the third quarter of 2025 at the latest.

"If the LDP picks its next leader in a way that disregards public criticism against political funding scandals, the party could suffer a crushing defeat," political analyst Atsuo Ito said.

"The party must choose someone young who has no ties with the present administration and thus can present a new LDP," he added.