Türkiye Opposition Aims to Hit Back at Erdogan in Local Elections

Turkish President and leader of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a speech during a campaign rally ahead of nationwide municipality elections, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sunday, March 24, 2024. (AP)
Turkish President and leader of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a speech during a campaign rally ahead of nationwide municipality elections, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sunday, March 24, 2024. (AP)
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Türkiye Opposition Aims to Hit Back at Erdogan in Local Elections

Turkish President and leader of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a speech during a campaign rally ahead of nationwide municipality elections, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sunday, March 24, 2024. (AP)
Turkish President and leader of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a speech during a campaign rally ahead of nationwide municipality elections, in Istanbul, Türkiye, Sunday, March 24, 2024. (AP)

Bruised and fractured by Tayyip Erdogan's victory in 2023 general elections, Türkiye’s opposition aims to land a blow in Sunday's local polls, with the future of its biggest hope, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, tied to the outcome.
The nationwide municipal votes on March 31 could reinforce President Erdogan's control after two decades running Türkiye, or signal change in the NATO member's deeply divided political landscape.
The results are likely to be shaped in part by economic woes driven by rampant inflation, and by Kurdish and Islamist voters weighing up the government's performance and their hopes for political change, Reuters said.
Opposition hopes of transformation were fuelled by local election results in 2019 when they defeated Erdogan's AK Party in the main two cities, Istanbul and Ankara, which had been run by the AKP and its Islamist predecessors for 25 years. But Erdogan bounced back last year, retaining the presidency and winning a parliamentary majority with nationalist allies despite voters' concerns about a cost-of-living crisis. In response, a broad opposition alliance splintered. Polls show Imamoglu and the AKP candidate, former minister Murat Kurum, in a close race in Istanbul, a city of 16 million, where Erdogan made his name as mayor in the 1990s. The incumbent opposition mayor leads in the capital Ankara. Erdogan has been seeking a bigger role for Türkiye on the world stage and sought to repair frayed ties with many nations in recent years, including in the Middle East. But during campaigning he said Turks should vote for the AKP to defend against unspecified enemies.
"Those who cannot stomach Türkiye’s increasing power in the region and world, or its principled and fair stance, are currently waiting in ambush," he said on Monday at a rally in the northern province of Tokat.
"In 2019 when Erdogan and AK Party lost Istanbul, it was a big blow and it was a scratch on Erdogan's reputation. Up until then he was unbeatable, invincible," said Yetkin Report analyst Murat Yetkin, describing a win in Istanbul as vital for Erdogan.
"If he does so, that means that he will be able to extend and endorse his power to local administrations," he said, with analysts saying Erdogan may then bid to change the constitution to enable him to stand as president again in 2028.
An Imamoglu victory would however revitalize the opposition, said political analyst Berk Esen of Sabanci University.
"If the opposition candidate can win in Istanbul then at least the main opposition party will be able to gain sufficient strength to challenge Erdogan in the coming years," he said.
It was a message that Imamoglu sought to convey.
"Türkiye’s destiny is in your hands," Imamoglu said in an appeal to young Turks in Istanbul. "You can change what is going wrong in Türkiye with one vote."
"The playing field is tilted in favor of the ruling alliance," said Esen. "Imamoglu is basically fighting alone."
ECONOMY, GAZA SWAYING VOTERS
Erdogan's prospects appear to have been dented by a rise in support for the Islamist New Welfare Party due to its hardline stance against Israel over the Gaza conflict and dissatisfaction with the Islamist-rooted AKP's handling of the economy. Erdogan's rhetoric against Israel has been harsh but Ankara has maintained commercial ties with Israel, drawing criticism from Welfare, which has tapped into anger among Turks who want the government to be more active in supporting Palestinians.
"If we, the Welfare Party, were in power, Israel would not be able to attack Gaza," the party's deputy leader Mehmet Altinoz told Reuters, calling for a trade embargo on Israel.
Polls indicate Welfare's support may have doubled to some 5%, eating into votes that may otherwise have gone to the AKP.
"They have a more radical, anti-Israeli stance and this makes them popular among radical Islamists," said Yetkin. Erdogan's prospects of winning back Istanbul may also depend on Kurdish voters, many of whom are expected to put aside party loyalty and back Imamoglu, according to pollsters.
For other voters, the local elections offer an opportunity to give their verdict on the government's economic performance. Turks have been struggling with soaring prices for years, with annual inflation still near 70% despite a major U-turn in economic policy after last year's elections that lifted the key interest rate a massive 4,150 basis points to 50%.
While the economy may be a key factor influencing voters nationwide, the focus of attention will be on Istanbul and the message it gives on the direction that Türkiye is taking.
"If he loses this election, the legend of Ekrem Imamoglu would be in great trouble," said MAK Research head Mehmet Ali Kulat. But victory for him will change the picture.
"Imamoglu would become an important actor in Turkish politics for the next 20 years and very likely be a candidate in the next presidential election."



Large Russian Drone Attack Injures Civilians in Central Ukraine

Rescuers work at the site of a residential building damaged during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the town of Dolynska, in Kirovohrad region, Ukraine, February 18, 2025. Head of Kirovohrad Regional Military Administration Andrii Raikovych via Telegram/Handout via REUTERS
Rescuers work at the site of a residential building damaged during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the town of Dolynska, in Kirovohrad region, Ukraine, February 18, 2025. Head of Kirovohrad Regional Military Administration Andrii Raikovych via Telegram/Handout via REUTERS
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Large Russian Drone Attack Injures Civilians in Central Ukraine

Rescuers work at the site of a residential building damaged during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the town of Dolynska, in Kirovohrad region, Ukraine, February 18, 2025. Head of Kirovohrad Regional Military Administration Andrii Raikovych via Telegram/Handout via REUTERS
Rescuers work at the site of a residential building damaged during a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the town of Dolynska, in Kirovohrad region, Ukraine, February 18, 2025. Head of Kirovohrad Regional Military Administration Andrii Raikovych via Telegram/Handout via REUTERS

A large-scale overnight Russian drone attack hit a residential building in the city of Dolynska in central Ukraine, injuring a mother and her two children and forcing evacuations from 38 apartments, a regional official said on Tuesday.
"A difficult night for the Kirovohrad region," Andriy Raikovych, the region's governor, said in a post on the Telegram messaging app. "An enemy drone hit a high-rise building in Dolynska."
The mother and one of the children were taken to hospital, said Raikovych, who posted photos of flames bursting out of windows of a high-story apartment building.
The Ukrainian military said on Tuesday that Russia launched 176 drones in a large-scale attack.
Ukraine's air force shot down 103 of the drones and 67 did not reach their targets, probably due to electronic countermeasures, the military said.
According to Reuters, it did not specify what happened to the remaining six drones, but said that Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Kyiv and Cherkasy regions were impacted.
Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko said that drone debris fell in one of the districts of the capital, causing a fire at an industrial enterprise.
Reuters could not independently verify the report. There was no immediate comment from Russia.
Both Moscow and Kyiv deny targeting civilians in the war, which Russia started with its full-scale invasion on Ukraine nearly three years ago. But thousands of civilians have died in the conflict, the vast majority of them Ukrainian.
The attack took place as top Russian and US officials are meeting in Saudi Arabia for talks - without the participation of Kyiv or its European allies - on how to end the war in Ukraine.