Iran’s Khamenei Balances War Specter, Reestablishing Deterrence

This handout picture provided by the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shows him addressing and giving the annual address to the nation for Nowruz, the Persian New Year, in Tehran on March 20, 2024. (Photo by KHAMENEI.IR / AFP)

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is wary of tarnishing his legacy with a departure from the policy of “deterrence” in the final years of his rule, avoiding direct involvement in a potentially devastating war for his country.
Khamenei, who turns 85 next week, marks 35 years since assuming Iran's top leadership role after Khomeini. From his past as president during the Iraq war to his current position, Iran has often teetered on the edge of conflict, particularly with the US.
For Iranians, the fear of war has been a constant under Khamenei’s leadership, taking a toll on the economy due to sanctions and capital flight, leading to worsened living conditions for many.
Despite this, Iranian authorities have used the fear of war to justify expanding military activities and the nuclear program, reminding Iranians of past conflicts like the 1980s war with Iraq or US invasions in the region.
Fear of war has also been used politically to boost voter turnout, especially during elections when reformist and moderate candidates win.
After former US President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy and the killing of Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s leaders have continued cautiously, adopting a strategy of “strategic patience.”
Iran and Israel are locked in a shadow war that has escalated over the years, sparked in part by Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, exemplified by the Stuxnet virus attack in 2010.
The tension heightened during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s presidency of Iran, marked by a tough stance against Israel. Things got worse with the killings of nuclear scientists in Iran, blamed on Israel.
The shadow war intensified after Israel seized Iran’s nuclear archive post the nuclear deal. Then, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the brain behind Iran’s weapons program, was assassinated.
The Israeli threat looms large as Iran edges closer to nuclear weapons capability. Tel Aviv sees any shift of Iran’s nuclear program towards military use as a major threat, hinting at unilateral action.
Some in Iran want to halt steps towards nuclear weapons. Iranian officials claim Tehran could possess such weapons if it chose to. They argue it would bolster Iran’s deterrent capabilities.
Alongside the nuclear program, Iran already has a missile program overseen by the Revolutionary Guards, also handling drone development with support from Khamenei.
Military leaders justify expansion by building “missile cities” and investing in arms for deterrence.
Iranian missiles gained attention again recently after top officials vowed retaliation for an Israeli attack that killed a senior Revolutionary Guards general during a secret meeting at the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
After the attack, Iranians called for redefining deterrence and striking Israel.
Iranian officials justify supporting armed groups as Iran’s “strategic depth” and a way to deter Israel in the shadow war.
In a post on “X,” analyst Ahmad Zeid Abadi commented : “Who has been acting as the deterrent in recent years? Iranian officials responded to those demanding an explanation for supporting Islamic groups in the region by stating that these groups serve as a deterrent to keep war away from Iranian territory... Well, what’s the situation now? Are these groups acting as a deterrent to Iran, or is Iran assuming the role of deterrent to them?”
Iran’s state-linked newspaper, “Jam-e Jam,” suggested on Saturday that Israel’s actions were reckless and desperate. They mentioned Iran’s readiness to defend itself against any Israeli retaliation.
Hossein Jaberi Ansari pointed out two conflicting issues in dealing with Israel. First, not falling into Israel’s trap to escalate tensions after the Gaza conflict. Second, Iran’s need to respond to Israel’s attacks without losing its own deterrent power.
Ansari stressed the importance of finding a balance to maintain Iran’s deterrence against Israel while avoiding actions that would play into Israel’s hands.
He suggested that any Iranian response should target Israel’s actions in the territories it occupied since 1967, especially the Golan Heights.
The newspaper “Kayhan” also emphasized the need for Iran’s response to be strategic and not serve the interests of its enemies.
Iranian officials, including former President Hassan Rouhani, have warned against getting drawn into a direct war, affirming the Supreme Leader’s determination to thwart any enemy plans.
However, launching a major military action against Israel could shift Iranians’ perception from fearing war to facing a conflict that Tehran aims to avoid, especially during the transition to a new Supreme Leader.