CIA Assessment Concludes Netanyahu is Likely to Defy Biden Pressure

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - File/AFP
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - File/AFP
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CIA Assessment Concludes Netanyahu is Likely to Defy Biden Pressure

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - File/AFP
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - File/AFP

A CIA assessment circulated among US officials this week concluded that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu likely judges he can get away without defining a post-war plan — even as the Biden administration has launched a full-court press to pressure him to bring an end to the conflict in Gaza.

Netanyahu “probably believes he can maintain support from his security chiefs and prevent defections” from the right wing of his coalition by discussing the future of Gaza in “vague terms,” the June 3 report, reviewed by CNN, reads.

The assessment represents one of the most up to date intelligence assessments about Netanyahu’s mindset that has been circulated among senior US officials, according to a source familiar with internal reporting.

It comes amid a clear shift in how the Biden administration views Israel: less as a trusted partner and more as an unpredictable foreign government to be analyzed and understood.

According to CNN, the assessment highlights how the Israeli leader is defying pressure from members of his own government and the Biden administration to define an “end state” for Gaza and warns what Netanyahu has said publicly is likely true: that he will only engage seriously on post-war issues after meeting “what he sees as key security benchmarks, which may take months.”

According to the assessment, those benchmarks include completing “major military operations” — something analysts have said is deliberately vague — as well as eliminating Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif.

Deif is the commander of the Qassam Brigades and, as a senior commander of the military wing of Hamas, is believed to have been deeply involved in the planning of the October 7, 2023, attacks in Israel.

Israel has tried to target Deif multiple times in the past, and although he has been injured, he is believed to still be alive.

The CIA assessment also highlights that, within Israel, there is no consensus on the postwar plan for Gaza, indicating each cabinet minister’s ranging views on postwar governance, security and reconstruction.

Overall, the assessment illustrates how Israel’s coalition government remains deeply divided over several critical post-war issues – supporting the CIA’s broader conclusion that a lack of unity among Netanyahu’s political rivals could enable his continued defiance of any pressure to define a plan for Gaza once the conflict ends.



Foreign Ministers Meet in Italy for G7 Talks on Ukraine, Middle East

Security stand guard ahead of the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting in Anagni, Lazio Region, Italy, 24 November 2024. (EPA)
Security stand guard ahead of the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting in Anagni, Lazio Region, Italy, 24 November 2024. (EPA)
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Foreign Ministers Meet in Italy for G7 Talks on Ukraine, Middle East

Security stand guard ahead of the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting in Anagni, Lazio Region, Italy, 24 November 2024. (EPA)
Security stand guard ahead of the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting in Anagni, Lazio Region, Italy, 24 November 2024. (EPA)

Foreign ministers from the world’s leading industrialized nations are meeting Monday, with the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East entering decisive phases and a certain pressure to advance diplomatic efforts ahead of the new US administration taking over.

Hopes for brokering a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon are foremost on the agenda of the Group of Seven meeting outside Rome that is gathering ministers from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States.

On the first day of the two-day gathering Monday, the G7 will be joined by ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, as well as the Secretary General of the Arab League.

“With partners will be discussed ways to support efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, initiatives to support the population and the promotion of a credible political horizon for stability in the region,” the Italian foreign ministry said.

The so-called “Quint” grouping of the US, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the UAE has been working to finalize a “day after” plan for Gaza, and there is some urgency to make progress before the Trump administration takes over in January. President-elect Donald Trump is expected to pursue a policy that strongly favors Israel over the aspirations of the Palestinians.

Host Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani added another item to the G7 agenda last week after the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defense minister and Hamas’ military chief.

Italy is a founding member of the court and hosted the 1998 Rome conference that gave birth to it. But Italy’s right-wing government has been a strong supporter of Israel after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, while also providing humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza.

The Italian government has taken a cautious line, reaffirming its support and respect for the court but expressing concern that the warrants were politically motivated.

“There can be no equivalence between the responsibilities of the state of Israel and the terrorist organization of Hamas,” Premier Giorgia Meloni said, echoing the statement from US President Joe Biden.

Nathalie Tocci, director of the Rome-based Institute for International Affairs think tank, said Italy would be seeking to forge a united front on the ICC warrants, at least among the six G7 countries that are signatories of the court: everyone but the US.

But in an essay this weekend in La Stampa newspaper, Tocci warned it was a risky move, since the US tends to dictate the G7 line and has blasted the ICC warrants against Netanyahu as “outrageous.”

“If Italy and the other (five G7) signatories of the ICC are unable to maintain the line on international law, they will not only erode it anyway but will be acting against our interests,” Tocci wrote, recalling Italy’s recourse to international law in demanding protection for Italian UN peacekeepers who have come under fire in southern Lebanon.

The other major talking point of the G7 meeting is Ukraine, and tensions have only heightened since Russia attacked Ukraine last week with an experimental, hypersonic ballistic missile that escalated the nearly 33-month-old war.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is expected at the G7 in Fiuggi on Tuesday, and NATO and Ukraine are to hold emergency talks the same day in Brussels.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the strike was retaliation for Kyiv’s use of US and British longer-range missiles capable of striking deeper into Russian territory.

The G7 has been at the forefront of providing military and economic support for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022 and G7 members are particularly concerned about how a Trump administration will change the US approach.

Trump has criticized the billions of dollars that the Biden administration has poured into Ukraine and has said he could end the war in 24 hours, comments that appear to suggest he would press Ukraine to surrender territory that Russia now occupies.

Italy is a strong supporter of Ukraine and has backed the US decision to allow Ukraine to strike Russia with US-made, longer-range missiles. But Italy has invoked the country’s constitutional repudiation of war in declining to provide Ukraine with offensive weaponry to strike inside Russia and limiting its aid to anti-air defense systems to protect Ukrainian civilians.

The G7 foreign ministers’ meeting, the second of the Italian presidency after ministers gathered in Capri in April, is being held in the medieval town of Fiuggi southeast of Rome, best known for its thermal spas.

On Monday, which coincides with the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, ministers will attend the inauguration of a red bench meant to symbolize Italy’s focus on fighting gender-based violence.

Over the weekend, tens of thousands of people marched in Rome to protest gender-based violence, which in Italy so far this year has claimed the lives of 99 women, according to a report last week by the Eures think tank.