Iranian Calls to Confront Geopolitical Shifts in the South Caucasus

A photo of a previous meeting of the 3+3 group on the South Caucasus in Tehran (archive - Iranian Foreign Ministry)
A photo of a previous meeting of the 3+3 group on the South Caucasus in Tehran (archive - Iranian Foreign Ministry)
TT

Iranian Calls to Confront Geopolitical Shifts in the South Caucasus

A photo of a previous meeting of the 3+3 group on the South Caucasus in Tehran (archive - Iranian Foreign Ministry)
A photo of a previous meeting of the 3+3 group on the South Caucasus in Tehran (archive - Iranian Foreign Ministry)

Tension between Iran and Russia is mounting over the Zangezur Corridor in the South Caucasus, with both reformist and conservative politicians in Tehran suggesting that Moscow is deliberately hindering the revival of the nuclear deal with the West.
The controversy began when Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov urged the implementation of the ceasefire agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, specifically the provision to open the Zangezur Corridor, which would connect mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared this a “red line” that cannot be crossed.
Disrupting Strategic Trade Routes

Tehran argues that the opening of the Zangezur Corridor would sever a vital trade route linking Iran to Europe. Former Iranian MP Ali Motahari criticized Russia’s focus on the Ukraine war, saying it is disregarding Iranian interests.
Iranian MP Ahmad Naderi voiced his frustration, arguing that Iran’s previous lack of response to Russian actions undermining its national interests has only emboldened Moscow. In a post on X, Naderi stressed that Moscow must understand that strategic cooperation does not equate to compromising national interests, and called on Iran’s Foreign Ministry and military to develop a clear plan to counteract Russia’s “geopolitical ambitions.”
Russian Ambassador to Tehran Alexey Dedov was summoned to Iran’s Foreign Ministry, where he was reminded of Iran’s opposition to any changes in the geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus. This move reflects the ongoing divergence in Moscow and Tehran’s positions on regional dynamics, especially after Russia reaffirmed its commitment to opening the corridor.
Russia and the Nuclear Deal
While the surface-level dispute over the Zangezur Corridor appears to be about trade routes, some Iranian politicians believe it has deeper implications, connected to Russia’s efforts to thwart Iran’s diplomatic engagement with the West and hinder the revival of the nuclear deal.
Former MP Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, who once chaired Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin is launching a “preemptive strike” to prevent any potential rapprochement between Tehran and Washington.
Falahatpisheh, in comments published by reformist media, argued that Russia is using the Zangezur Corridor as leverage to exert pressure on Tehran, ignoring Iran’s “red lines” in regional politics. He claimed that Moscow prefers an isolated Iran, viewing any reduction in tensions between Tehran and the West as a threat to its own interests.
He also argued that Iran has had to make significant concessions to Russia, with the nuclear deal becoming a casualty of the ongoing Ukraine conflict. Iran had reportedly supplied Russia with hundreds of drones during the two-and-a-half-year war, and the potential transfer of ballistic missiles is viewed as a deeply concerning escalation by some insiders.
No Secret Nuclear Program

 

In parallel, Mohammad Eslami, the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, denied allegations of a secret nuclear program.
“For the past two decades, the West has used various tactics to pressure the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into investigating Iran,” Tasnim news agency quoted him as saying.
Eslami reiterated that Iran had agreed to limit its uranium enrichment under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and placed its nuclear activities under strict oversight, with the goal of resolving any concerns about a potential nuclear weapons program. Despite this, he noted that the US unilaterally withdrew from the agreement, even though Iran had adhered to its commitments.
Eslami further criticized the three European signatories of the JCPOA—France, the United Kingdom, and Germany—along with the US, accusing them of spearheading a campaign against Iran’s nuclear program.

 

 



France Has a New Government, Again. Politics and Crushing Debt Complicate Next Steps

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)
France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)
TT

France Has a New Government, Again. Politics and Crushing Debt Complicate Next Steps

France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)
France's Prime Minister Francois Bayrou makes an address after observing a minute of silence as part of an official day of mourning for the victims of Cyclone Chido which hit the archipelago on the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte a week ago, at The Hotel Matignon in Paris on December 23, 2024. (AFP)

France’s president and prime minister managed to form a new government just in time for the holidays. Now comes the hard part.

Crushing debt, intensifying pressure from the nationalist far right, wars in Europe and the Middle East: Challenges abound for President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Francois Bayrou after an already tumultuous 2024.

What's wrong with French finances? The most urgent order of business is passing a 2025 budget. Financial markets, ratings agencies and the European Commission are pushing France to bring down its deficit, to comply with EU rules limiting debt and keep France’s borrowing costs from spiraling. That would threaten the stability and prosperity of all countries that share the euro currency.

France’s debt is currently estimated at a staggering 112% of gross domestic product. It grew further after the government gave aid payments to businesses and workers during COVID-19 lockdowns even as the pandemic depressed growth, and capped household energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. The bill is now coming due.

But France’s previous government collapsed this month because Marine Le Pen’s far-right party and left-wing lawmakers opposed 60 billion euros in spending cuts and tax hikes in the original 2025 budget plan. Bayrou and new Finance Minister Eric Lombard are expected to scale back some of those promises, but the calculations are tough.

“The political situation is difficult. The international situation is dangerous, and the economic context is fragile,” Lombard, a low-profile banker who advised a Socialist government in the 1990s, said upon taking office.

“The environmental emergency, the social emergency, developing our businesses — these innumerable challenges require us to treat our endemic illness: the deficit,” he said. “The more we are indebted, the more the debt costs, and the more it suffocates the country.”

How long will this government last? This is France’s fourth government in the past year. No party has a parliamentary majority and the new Cabinet can only survive with the support of lawmakers on the center-right and center-left.

Le Pen — Macron’s fiercest rival — was instrumental in ousting the previous government by joining left-wing forces in a no-confidence vote. Bayrou consulted her when forming the new government and Le Pen remains a powerful force.

That angers left-wing groups, who had expected more influence in the new Cabinet, and who say promised spending cuts will hurt working-class families and small businesses hardest. Left-wing voters, meanwhile, feel betrayed ever since a coalition from the left won the most seats in the summer's snap legislative elections but failed to secure a government.

The possibility of a new no-confidence vote looms, though it's not clear how many parties would support it.

What about Macron? Macron has repeatedly said he will remain president until his term expires in 2027.

But France's constitution and current structure, dating from 1958 and called the Fifth Republic, were designed to ensure stability after a period of turmoil. If this new government collapses within months and the country remains in political paralysis, pressure will mount for Macron to step down and call early elections.

Le Pen's ascendant National Rally is intent on bringing Macron down. But Le Pen faces her own headaches: A March court ruling over alleged illegal party financing could see her barred from running for office.

What else is on the agenda? The National Rally and hard-right Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau want tougher immigration rules. But Bayrou wants to focus on making existing rules work. “There are plenty of (immigration) laws that exist. None is being applied,” he said Monday on broadcaster BFM-TV, to criticism from conservatives.

Military spending is a key issue amid fears about European security and pressure from US President-elect Donald Trump for Europe to spend more on its own defense. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who champions military aid for Ukraine and ramping up weapons production, kept his job and stressed in a statement Tuesday the need to face down “accumulating threats” against France.

More immediately, Macron wants an emergency law in early January to allow sped-up reconstruction of the cyclone-ravaged French territory of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean off Africa. Thousands of people are in emergency shelters and authorities are still counting the dead more than a week after the devastation.

Meanwhile the government in the restive French South Pacific territory of New Caledonia collapsed Tuesday in a wave of resignations by pro-independence figures — another challenge for the new overseas affairs minister, Manuel Valls, and the incoming Cabinet.