German Foreign Minister Assures Kyiv of Support on Visit Ahead of US Vote

04 November 2024, Ukraine, Kyiv: A screenshot from a video shows German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock arriving in Ukraine and being welcomed by German Ambassador in Kyiv Martin Jaeger. (Jörg Blank/dpa)

09:31-4 November 2024 AD ـ 03 Jumada Al-Ula 1446 AH

German Foreign Minister Assures Kyiv of Support on Visit Ahead of US Vote

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock arrived in Kyiv on Monday pledging Berlin's continued backing for Ukraine, amid disquiet over the future of Washington's support as the US election looms.

Baerbock said Ukraine, facing its third winter of war, needs support to ensure its very survival as North Korea's military involvement and Russian airstrikes on civilian infrastructure exacerbate the conflict.

Her visit comes on the eve of the US presidential election, in which a win for Republican candidate Donald Trump could cast doubt on future support from Ukraine's top military backer.

"We are countering this brutality with our humanity and support, so that Ukrainians can not only survive the winter, but so that their country can survive. Because they are also defending the freedom of all of us in Europe," said Baerbock, embarking on her eighth visit to Ukraine.

Germany has emerged as Ukraine's top donor of military aid in Europe and has closely coordinated its support with Washington.

However, if Trump beats Democrat Kamala Harris in Tuesday's election, this close coordination could falter. Trump has criticized the level of US support for Kyiv and declined to say he wants Ukraine to win the war, which he says he would end quickly by pushing for a negotiated settlement.

The German foreign minister, who was last in Ukraine in May, is due to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha while in the capital.

Baerbock said Germany had recently extended its emergency energy aid to Ukraine by an extra 170 million euros ($185 million) in response to bombed-out heating plants and power lines.

Since August, Russia has intensified its attacks on Ukraine, in what Kyiv officials say is Moscow's attempt to destroy critical infrastructure needed for heating during winter.

Russia will have to pay for the billions of euros in damage it has caused, said Baerbock, but until that happens, the Group of Seven (G7) will support Kyiv with some $50 billion in loans.

Under incumbent President Joe Biden, the US finalised its $20-billion portion of that amount with a pledge to pay it out in December, timing meant to shield the loan funds from a potential claw-back from Trump.

Despite Sharp Decline, Inflation Remains a Sore Point for Harris

Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris delivers a speech at The Alan Horwitz "Sixth Man" Center, a youth basketball facility, as she campaigns in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US October 27, 2024. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein

Asharq Al Awsat

10:22-4 November 2024 AD ـ 03 Jumada Al-Ula 1446 AH

Asharq Al Awsat

10:22-4 November 2024 AD ـ 03 Jumada Al-Ula 1446 AH

Despite Sharp Decline, Inflation Remains a Sore Point for Harris

For six months or so in 2021, as vaccines paved an economic reopening from the COVID-19 pandemic and fresh waves of federal benefits flowed to household bank accounts, President Joe Biden's administration reaped the benefit with an approval rating pinned above 50%.
It has been mired around 40% ever since, with the scarring impact of subsequently high inflation still cited by voters as a major issue even though the pace of price increases has declined, wages and the economy continue to grow, and the jobless rate remains low, Reuters said.
As good as the economy might seem across most major indicators, inflation that peaked at 9% more than two years ago has been hard for Vice President and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to outrun, and given former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump a cudgel that remains effective on the eve of the election even as inflation has dwindled to 2.4%.
"Inflation has not faded as an issue," said Justin McCarthy, a spokesperson for Gallup, the polling giant that fields monthly surveys that include an open-ended question, without lists or prompts, of what respondents feel is the "most important" issue facing them. Those citing inflation as the most serious issue has fallen from highs of around 20% during the peak inflation surge in 2022 to around 15% in recent polls, but that remains double the historic norm and is part of broader concern about the economy cited by more than 40% of respondents.
It's an area where Trump continues to hold a polling edge despite Harris' pledges to address issues like high housing costs or the "price gouging" she cites as a cause of high prices in the grocery aisle.
In a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 68% of respondents in seven swing states said the cost of living was "on the wrong track," and 61% said the same about the economy. Half said Trump had "a better plan, policy or approach" to managing the economy compared with 37% for Harris, while on inflation Trump was favored 47% to 34%.
In-person voting concludes on Tuesday, with polls showing an overall tight race between Harris and Trump nationally and in the battleground states seen as determining the outcome.
The Biden administration and later the Harris campaign recognized early on the problem inflation posed.
Biden named one of his signature pieces of legislation the "Inflation Reduction Act," though much of it focused on subsidies for electric vehicles and clean energy. As rising rent and housing prices emerged as a particularly acute issue, they launched proposals that included capping rent increases, tax incentives for affordable housing construction, and downpayment help for first-time home buyers.
What they didn't publicize so much is how sticky a problem it would be for the households living through it.
Attitudes improved somewhat as inflation began to ease last year, but the change only went so far.
'UNAMBIGUOUSLY NEGATIVE'
Solutions have been offered by both campaigns, but inflation, the responsibility first and foremost of the Federal Reserve through its management of interest rates and credit conditions, is difficult for elected officials to address.
Republican President Richard Nixon tried the direct route by freezing wage and price increases for 90 days in 1971 and establishing a government panel to approve them after that. Inflation was 4.3% at the time and did fall below 4% in the summer of 1972 as Nixon campaigned for reelection.
But it soared that fall as the controls were eased, and following an embargo by Arab oil exporters in 1973 exceeded 12% by the end of 1974.
When inflation started rising during his term in office, Democratic President Jimmy Carter used a major address in 1978 to announce plans to limit government spending and call for voluntary wage and price limits from business. By the middle of his losing reelection bid against Republican Ronald Reagan prices were rising more than 14% annually.
After two recessions, a period of punishing interest rates imposed by the Fed and its firmer commitment to inflation control, price increases gradually settled close to the 2% level the central bank eventually adopted as its official target - and stayed there until the COVID-19 pandemic.
Economists have sparred over the exact reasons inflation took off beginning in 2021, and if that could have been prevented. But they generally agree on the broad mix. As the pandemic limited spending on in-person services, it also created deep backlogs in the manufacture and delivery of the goods, from bikes to appliances to automobiles, that were suddenly in high demand as a result of roughly $5 trillion in stimulus from the federal government.
The pandemic support began under Trump; Biden added more in a move some economists feel may have supercharged demand beyond what was needed.
It is a debate being litigated in hindsight and in the shadow of a health crisis that lingered long enough - new COVID variants were still suppressing in-person gatherings through 2021 - to even implicate the Fed. Inflation took off in 2021; the central bank did not raise rates until March 2022.
What doesn't seem in doubt is the impact on the public mood, something that shouldn't be a surprise.
Surveys about inflation have been consistent in finding that price shocks register deeply and are not quickly forgotten.
"Inflation significantly complicates household decision-making, which is seen as its most critical consequence," researchers Alberto Binetti of Bocconi University and Francesco Nuzzi and Stefanie Stantcheva of Harvard University concluded from the results of an online survey of 2,264 people conducted between March and May. "This complexity affects daily economic choices" and adds to economic uncertainty.
Nor do people seem to care much if, as has happened recently and Democrats have tried to emphasize, wages rise faster than prices.
"Inflation is perceived as an unambiguously negative phenomenon without any potential positive economic correlates," they found, with people expecting it to be fixed "without significant trade-offs."

German Foreign Minister Assures Kyiv of Support on Visit Ahead of US Vote