United Nations Warily awaits Donald Trump's Return to Power

FILE PHOTO: Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Rocky Mount Event Center in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, October 30, 2024. REUTERS/Jay Paul/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Rocky Mount Event Center in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, October 30, 2024. REUTERS/Jay Paul/File Photo
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United Nations Warily awaits Donald Trump's Return to Power

FILE PHOTO: Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Rocky Mount Event Center in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, October 30, 2024. REUTERS/Jay Paul/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Republican presidential nominee and former US President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the Rocky Mount Event Center in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, October 30, 2024. REUTERS/Jay Paul/File Photo

The United Nations has been planning for the possible return of Donald Trump and the cuts to US funding and engagement with world body that are likely to come with his second term as president.
There was a sense of "déjà vu and some trepidation" at the 193-member world body, said one senior Asian diplomat, as Republican Trump won Tuesday's US election over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
"There is also some hope that a transactional administration will engage the UN on some areas even if it were to defund some dossiers. After all, what bigger and better global stage is there than the United Nations?" said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
A US retreat at the UN could open the door for China, which has been building its influence in global diplomacy.
Trump has offered few specifics about foreign policy in his second term but supporters say the force of his personality and his "peace through strength" approach will help bend foreign leaders to his will. He has vowed to solve the war in Ukraine and is expected to give strong support to Israel in its conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and southern Lebanon.
Among the top concerns at the UN are whether the United States will decide to contribute less money to the world body and withdraw from key multinational institutions and agreements, including the world Health Organization and the Paris climate agreement.
US funding is the immediate worry. Washington is the UN's largest contributor - with China second - accounting for 22% of the core UN budget and 27% of the peacekeeping budget.
A country can be up to two years in arrears before facing the possible repercussion of losing its General Assembly vote.
'EXTREMELY HARD'
Trump came to power last time proposing to cut about a third off US diplomacy and aid budgets, which included steep reductions in funding for UN peacekeeping and international organizations. But Congress, which sets the federal US government budget, pushed back on Trump's proposal.
A UN spokesperson said at the time the proposed cuts would have made it impossible to continue all essential work.
"The UN secretariat has known that they could face a Trump comeback all year. There has been prudent planning behind the scenes on how to manage potential US budget cuts," said Richard Gowan, UN director at the International Crisis Group.
"So (UN Secretary-General Antonio) Guterres and his team are not totally unprepared, but they know the next year will be extremely hard," he said.
Trump's team did not immediately respond to a query about his policy toward the UN after he takes office in January.
During his first term, Trump complained that the US was shouldering an unfair burden of the cost of the UN and pushed for reforms. Washington is traditionally slow to pay and when Trump left office in 2021 the US was in arrears about $600 million for the core budget and $2 billion for peacekeeping.
According to UN figures, President Joe Biden's administration currently owes $995 million for the core UN budget and $862 million for the peacekeeping budget.
"I don't want to pre-empt or speak about policies that may or may not happen, but we work with member states in the way we've always worked with member states," Guterres' spokesperson Stephane Dujarric told reporters on Wednesday.
In 2026, the UN Security Council will choose Guterres' successor, a decision in which the Trump administration will hold a veto power.
'GREAT NEWS FOR CHINA'
During Trump's first term, he was critical of the United Nations and wary of multilateralism. He announced plans to quit the World Health Organization, and pulled out of the UN Human Rights Council, the UN cultural agency UNESCO, a global climate change accord and the Iran nuclear deal.
When Biden succeeded him in 2021, he rescinded the US decision to withdraw from the WHO and returned the US to UNESCO and the climate agreement. Trump's campaign has said he would quit the climate deal again if he won office.
"It will survive. But, of course, it will probably survive severely undermined," Guterres told Reuters in September of a second withdrawal from the climate pact by Trump.
Ahead of the US election, a senior European diplomat said a Trump win would be "great news for China," recalling that during Trump's first term "the Chinese influence in the UN increased a lot because it was an open bar for the Chinese."
The diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that if Trump again cuts UN funding and withdraws from international pacts "it will just give China the opportunity to present itself as the supporter number one of multilateralism."
US funding for some other UN agencies is also in question. One of the first moves by the Trump administration in 2017 was to cut funding for UN Population Fund (UNFPA), the international body's agency focused on family planning as well as maternal and child health in more than 150 countries.
Trump's administration said UNFPA "supports ... a program of coercive abortion or involuntary sterilization." The UN said that was an inaccurate perception. Biden restored US funding for UNFPA.
If Trump again cuts funding, UNFPA warned that "women will lose lifesaving services in some of the world's most devastating crises" in places like Afghanistan, Sudan and Ukraine.
Under Trump's first presidency, the US also opposed long-agreed international language on women's sexual and reproductive rights and health in UN resolutions over concern that it would advance abortion rights.
A senior African diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, summed up the impending return of Trump for multilateralism and the United Nations: "The heavens help us."



Iran to Launch 'Advanced Centrifuges' in Response to IAEA Censure

Western countries successfully moved a resolution at the IAEA to censure Iran over its nuclear program - AFP
Western countries successfully moved a resolution at the IAEA to censure Iran over its nuclear program - AFP
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Iran to Launch 'Advanced Centrifuges' in Response to IAEA Censure

Western countries successfully moved a resolution at the IAEA to censure Iran over its nuclear program - AFP
Western countries successfully moved a resolution at the IAEA to censure Iran over its nuclear program - AFP

Iran said Friday it would launch a series of "new and advanced" centrifuges in response to a resolution adopted by the UN nuclear watchdog that censures Tehran for what the agency called lack of cooperation.

The censure motion brought by Britain, France, Germany, and the United States at the 35-nation board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) follows a similar one in June.

It came as tensions run high over Iran's atomic program, with critics fearing that Tehran is attempting to develop a nuclear weapon -- a claim the Islamic Republic has repeatedly denied.

The resolution -- which China, Russia and Burkina Faso voted against -- carried with 19 votes in favor, 12 abstentions and Venezuela not participating, two diplomats told AFP.

"The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran issued an order to take effective measures, including launching a significant series of new and advanced centrifuges of various types," a joint statement by the organization and Iran's foreign ministry said.

Centrifuges are the machines that enrich uranium transformed into gas by rotating it at very high speed, increasing the proportion of fissile isotope material (U-235).

"At the same time, technical and safeguards cooperation with the IAEA will continue, as in the past" and within the framework of agreements made by Iran, the joint Iranian statement added.

Behrouz Kamalvandi, Iran's atomic energy organization spokesman, on Friday said the new measures are mostly related to uranium enrichment.

"We will substantially increase the enrichment capacity with the utilisation of different types of advanced machines," he told state TV.

Iran's retaliatory measures "are reversible if this (Western) hostile action is withdrawn or negotiations are opened," Tehran-based political analyst Hadi Mohammadi told AFP.

- 'Legal obligations' -

The confidential resolution seen by AFP says it is "essential and urgent" for Iran to "act to fulfil its legal obligations" under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) ratified in 1970.

The text also calls on Tehran to provide "technically credible explanations" for the presence of uranium particles found at two undeclared locations in Iran.

In addition, Western powers are asking for a "comprehensive report" to be issued by the IAEA on Iran's nuclear efforts "at the latest" by spring 2025.

The resolution comes after the IAEA's head Rafael Grossi returned from a trip to Tehran last week, where he appeared to have made headway.

During the visit, Iran agreed to an IAEA demand to cap its sensitive stock of near weapons-grade uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity.

- 'Cycle of provocation' -

"Iran did not start the cycle of provocation -- the Western side could, without passing a resolution... create the atmosphere for negotiations if it really was after talks," the analyst Mohammadi said.

In 2015, Iran and world powers reached an agreement that saw the easing of international sanctions on Tehran in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program.

But the United States unilaterally withdrew from the accord in 2018 under then-president Donald Trump and reimposed biting economic sanctions, which prompted Iran to begin rolling back on its own commitments.

On Thursday, Iran's deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs Kazem Gharibabadi warned of Iran's potential next step.

"Iran had announced in an official letter to European countries that it would withdraw from the NPT if the snapback mechanism was activated, and the Security Council sanctions were reinstated," Gharibabadi said in a late-night interview with state TV.

The 2015 deal contains a "snapback" mechanism that can be triggered in case of "significant non-performance" of commitments by Iran.

This would allow many sanctions to be reimposed.

Tehran has since 2021 decreased its cooperation with the agency by deactivating surveillance devices monitoring the nuclear program and barring UN inspectors.

At the same time, it has ramped up its nuclear activities, including by increasing its stockpiles of enriched uranium and the level of enrichment to 60 percent.

That level is close, according to the IAEA, to the 90 percent-plus threshold required for a nuclear warhead and substantially higher than the 3.67 percent limit it agreed to in 2015.