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Western Countries Urge Iran to Immediately Dispose of its Highly Enriched Stockpile

IAEA head Rafael Grossi
IAEA head Rafael Grossi
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Western Countries Urge Iran to Immediately Dispose of its Highly Enriched Stockpile

IAEA head Rafael Grossi
IAEA head Rafael Grossi

While the United Kingdom, France and Germany on Thursday urged Iran to immediately dispose of its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60 %, the UN atomic watchdog's 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution ordering Tehran to urgently improve cooperation with the Agency.

In a joint statement to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors on Iran’s implementation of its nuclear commitments under the JCPoA, France, Germany and the United Kingdom on Thursday called on Iran to halt and reverse its nuclear escalation and refrain from making threats to produce nuclear weapons.

The three countries asked Tehran to return to the limits imposed by the JCPoA, in particular those regarding enrichment.

They said Iran should allow the Agency to install surveillance and monitoring equipment where requested, re-implement and swiftly ratify its Additional Protocol and fully reverse its September 2023 decision to withdraw the designations of experienced inspectors.

On Thursday, the UN atomic watchdog’s 35-nation Board of Governors passed a resolution again ordering Iran to urgently improve cooperation with the Agency and requesting a “comprehensive” report aimed at pressuring Iran into fresh nuclear talks.

The resolution was proposed by Britain, France, Germany and the United States.

Seen by AFP, it says it is “essential and urgent” for Iran to “act to fulfil its legal obligations.”

The text also calls on Tehran to provide “technically credible explanations” for the presence of uranium particles found at two undeclared locations in Iran.

Moreover, Western powers are asking for a “comprehensive report” to be issued by the IAEA on Iran's nuclear efforts “at the latest” by spring 2025.

No Peaceful Purpose

Meanwhile, Washington's delegation to the Board of Governors said in a press release that “Iran has already amassed a substantial stockpile of highly enriched uranium for which it has no credible peaceful purpose.”

It noted that if Iran is interested in demonstrating the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program, it should do much more than take easily reversible steps.

“It should provide greater assurance, including resuming implementation of the Additional Protocol, and provide full transparency regarding centrifuge component production,” the delegation said in a statement.

Since 2021, Tehran has significantly decreased its cooperation with the agency by deactivating surveillance devices to monitor the nuclear programme and barring UN inspectors.

At the same time, Iran has rapidly ramped up its nuclear activities, including by increasing its stockpiles of enriched uranium.

That has heightened fears that Tehran might be seeking to develop a nuclear weapon, which it denies.

The resolution comes just as IAEA head Rafael Grossi returned from a trip to Tehran last week, where he appeared to have made headway.

During the visit, Iran agreed to an IAEA demand to cap its sensitive stock of near weapons-grade uranium enriched up to 60% purity.

“This is a concrete step in the right direction,” Grossi told reporters Wednesday, saying it was “the first time” Iran had made such a commitment since it started breaking away from its obligations under the nuclear deal.

EU Warnings

The European Union on Thursday warned that Iran had deviated from its commitments under the nuclear deal and has sharply increased its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60%, a level with significant proliferation risks and no credible civilian justification.

In a statement delivered during the IAEA Board of Governors meeting, the EU emphasized that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains a critical security priority.

The EU urged all nations to support the implementation of Resolution 2231, which underpins the IAEA’s monitoring and verification of Iran’s nuclear program.

It then expressed regret over Iran’s failure to return to its nuclear-related JCPOA commitments, which has led to significant nuclear advancements over the past five years.

These actions, the EU noted, have heightened the risk of nuclear proliferation in the region.

In return, Iran warned on Thursday that the resolution tabled by Western countries to censure Iran’s nuclear program at the International Atomic Energy Agency “will weaken and disrupt” interactions between the UN body and Tehran.

“This inappropriate action of the three European countries to issue a resolution against Iran will only weaken and disrupt interactive processes between the agency and Iran,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement carried by the foreign ministry.

The Iranian deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs Kazem Gharibabadi said on X on Wednesday that the three European countries were using the IAEA as a “political tool.”

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How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
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How Likely Is the Use of Nuclear Weapons by Russia?

This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)
This photograph taken at a forensic expert center in an undisclosed location in Ukraine on November 24, 2024, shows parts of a missile that were collected for examination at the impact site in the town of Dnipro following an attack on November 21. (Photo by Roman PILIPEY / AFP)

On 24 February 2022, in a televised speech heralding the Russian invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin issued what was interpreted as a threat to use nuclear weapons against NATO countries should they interfere.

“Russia will respond immediately,” he said, “and the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.”

Then on 27 February 2022, Putin ordered Russia to move nuclear forces to a “special mode of combat duty’, which has a significant meaning in terms of the protocols to launch nuclear weapons from Russia.”

Dr. Patricia Lewis, director of the International Security program at Chatham House, wrote in a report that according to Russian nuclear weapons experts, Russia’s command and control system cannot transmit launch orders in peacetime, so increasing the status to “combat” allows a launch order to go through and be put into effect.

She said Putin made stronger nuclear threats in September 2022, following months of violent conflict and gains made by a Ukrainian counterattack.

“He indicated a stretch in Russian nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for nuclear weapons use from an existential threat to Russia to a threat to its territorial integrity,” Lewis wrote.

In November 2022, according to much later reports, the US and allies detected manoeuvres that suggested Russian nuclear forces were being mobilized.

Lewis said that after a flurry of diplomatic activity, China’s President Xi Jinping stepped in to calm the situation and speak against the use of nuclear weapons.

In September 2024, Putin announced an update of the 2020 Russian nuclear doctrine. The update was published on 19 November 2024 and formally reduced the threshold for nuclear weapons use.

According to Lewis, the 2020 doctrine said that Russia could use nuclear weapons “in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is in jeopardy.”

On 21 November 2024, Russia attacked Dnipro in Ukraine using a new ballistic missile for the first time.

She said Putin announced the missile as the ‘Oreshnik’, which is understood to be a nuclear-capable, intermediate-range ballistic missile which has a theoretical range of below 5,500km.

Lewis added that Russia has fired conventionally armed nuclear-capable missiles at Ukraine throughout the war, but the Oreshnik is much faster and harder to defend against, and suggests an escalatory intent by Russia.

Nuclear Response During Cold War

In her report, Lewis said that nuclear weapons deterrence was developed in the Cold War primarily on the basis of what was called ‘mutually assured destruction’ (MAD).

The idea behind MAD is that the horror and destruction from nuclear weapons is enough to deter aggressive action and war, she added.

But the application of deterrence theory to post-cold war realities is far more complicated in the era of cyberattacks and AI, which could interfere with the command and control of nuclear weapons.

In light of these risks, presidents Biden and Xi issued a joint statement from the 2024 G20 summit affirming the need to maintain human control over the decision to use nuclear weapons.

The US and Russia exchange information on their strategic, long-range nuclear missiles under the New START agreement – a treaty to reduce and monitor nuclear weapons between the two countries which is set to expire in February 2026.

But, Lewis said, with the US decision to exit the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, there are no longer any agreements between the US and Russia regulating the number or the deployment of ground-launched nuclear missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km.

She said short-range nuclear weapons were withdrawn and put in storage as a result of the 1991 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives but are not subject to any legal restraints.

The 10th NPT Review Conference was held in 2022 in New York. The issue of nuclear weapons threats and the targeting of nuclear power stations in Ukraine were central to the debate.

Lewis noted that a document was carefully crafted to finely balance concerns about the three pillars of the treaty – non-proliferation, nuclear disarmament and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. But Russia withdrew its agreement on the last day of the conference, scuppering progress.

“It was believed that if Russia were to use nuclear weapons it would likely be in Ukraine, using short range, lower yield ‘battlefield’ nuclear weapons,” she said, adding that Russia is thought to have more than 1,000 in reserve.

“These would have to be taken from storage and either connected to missiles, placed in bombers, or as shell in artillery,” Lewis wrote.

Increasingly the rhetoric from Russia suggests nuclear threats are a more direct threat to NATO – not only Ukraine – and could refer to longer range, higher yield nuclear weapons.

For example in his 21 September 2022 speech, Putin accused NATO states of nuclear blackmail, referring to alleged “statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.”

Putin added: “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.”

There have been no expressed nuclear weapons threats from NATO states.

NATO does rely on nuclear weapons as a form of deterrence and has recently committed to significantly strengthen its longer-term deterrence and defence posture in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The current UK Labor government has repeatedly reiterated its commitment to British nuclear weapons – including before the July 2024 election, according to Lewis.

Therefore, she said, any movement to ready and deploy Russian nuclear weapons would be seen and monitored by US and others’ satellites, which can see through cloud cover and at night – as indeed appears to have happened in late 2022.

Lewis concluded that depending on other intelligence and analysis – and the failure of all diplomatic attempts to dissuade Russia – NATO countries may decide to intervene to prevent launch by bombing storage sites and missile deployment sites in advance.