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Smotrich Again Calls For Reduction of Half of Gaza’s Population

Settler activists dance at a conference calling for the establishment of Jewish settlements in Gaza, close to the Israel-Gaza border, October 21, 2024. (Jeremy Sharon/Times of Israel)
Settler activists dance at a conference calling for the establishment of Jewish settlements in Gaza, close to the Israel-Gaza border, October 21, 2024. (Jeremy Sharon/Times of Israel)
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Smotrich Again Calls For Reduction of Half of Gaza’s Population

Settler activists dance at a conference calling for the establishment of Jewish settlements in Gaza, close to the Israel-Gaza border, October 21, 2024. (Jeremy Sharon/Times of Israel)
Settler activists dance at a conference calling for the establishment of Jewish settlements in Gaza, close to the Israel-Gaza border, October 21, 2024. (Jeremy Sharon/Times of Israel)

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Monday again called for the occupation of the Gaza Strip and the reduction of its Palestinian population “by half within two years,” raising concerns about the presence of similar plans.
Speaking at a conference organized by the Yesha Council, an umbrella group representing Israeli municipalities in the West Bank, Smotrich said that “it is possible to create a situation where Gaza’s population will be reduced to half its current size in two years.”
“It won’t cost too much money. Even if it does, we should not be afraid to pay for it,” he added.
Smotrich’s calls for the occupation of Gaza are not new. However, they reflect the unstated goals of the current war in Gaza, including a prolonged occupation, military rule and rebuilding of settlements.
Israel continues to announce that its goals of the Gaza war are the “elimination of Hamas” and “returning of the captives.” However, developments in Tel Aviv and the Gaza Strip do not support such claims.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not yet announced a plan for the post-war phase in Gaza, where Israel is working to deepen its control by expanding the axes it holds and establishing permanent military outposts.
Meanwhile, Smotrich’s speech revealed that the minister is setting a budget for the occupation of Gaza.
He said that “Occupying Gaza is not a dirty word.”
“If the cost of security control is 5 billion shekels ($1.37 billion), I will accept it with open arms. If that is what it takes to ensure the security of Israel, then so be it,” the Minister added.
He appeared to be referencing concerns raised by members of Israel’s security establishment along with Treasury officials who have warned about the massive implications that occupying Gaza would have on Israel’s economy.
Smotrich insisted that the only way to defeat Hamas is to replace its governing capabilities in Gaza and that Israel is the only party that can do so, even if that means making the Israeli Army responsible for managing the civilian affairs of Palestinians in Gaza.
Smotrich claimed that once the success of “encouraged migration” is proven in Gaza, it can be replicated in the West Bank, where another three million Palestinians live.
The Religious Zionism party chairman has long spoken in favor of annexing large parts of the West Bank and declared earlier this month that US President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory offers an opportunity to see that vision through.
Smotrich was one of several government ministers who attended an event last month calling for the reestablishment of Jewish settlements in Gaza.
Ahead of his attendance at the conference, Smotrich said that territory relinquished by Israel in the past had turned into “Iranian forward terror bases,” and endangered the country.
But is Smotrich capable of reoccupying and rebuilding settlements in Gaza? For many Israelis, the matter depends on how the war in the Strip ends.
In an article published by The Times of Israel, Eran Hildesheim accused Smotrich of trying to convince the public of a new narrative that if Israel achieves its goals in the war and defeats its enemies, peace and security will return to the region.
The author said this narrative aims primarily to prepare the public opinion that the war should continue, while at the same time promoting the vision of rebuilding settlements in the Gaza Strip.
According to Hildesheim, “the end of the war, as Smotrich put it, implies a large land seizure in the Gaza Strip.”
In the first phase, the minister said the army would distribute food to the population.
Later, Smotrich plans a full military rule to directly manage the lives of the Palestinian population. The ultimate goal of this plan is to rebuild settlements in the Gaza Strip.
“Smotrich's vision places an unbearably heavy financial burden on Israel,” Hildesheim wrote.
He added that such a plan would cost about NIS 20 billion per year, not taking into account the costs of rebuilding the Strip.
He said while the state does not currently own this amount, Israel will therefore be forced to adopt an “economy based on God’s help” to get out of this situation peacefully.

 

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Arab World

Trump’s Phase Two Remarks Revive Questions Over Gaza Article 17

Palestinians fill water containers at the Nuseirat camp for displaced families in central Gaza (AFP)
Palestinians fill water containers at the Nuseirat camp for displaced families in central Gaza (AFP)
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Trump’s Phase Two Remarks Revive Questions Over Gaza Article 17

Palestinians fill water containers at the Nuseirat camp for displaced families in central Gaza (AFP)
Palestinians fill water containers at the Nuseirat camp for displaced families in central Gaza (AFP)

A brief and cryptic remark by US President Donald Trump about modifying phase two of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, offered without any details, has stirred questions over how the accord will be executed.

Analysts say the comment points to a possible change in implementing the deal’s provisions rather than adjusting its core terms.

Instead of moving toward an Israeli withdrawal from the enclave, where Israel controls about 55% of the territory, and the disarmament of Hamas, they expect Washington to pivot to article 17, which allows for unilateral application of the peace plan without adhering to its sequencing.

They said phase two will be difficult to reach while key issues remain unresolved, including forming a peace council, establishing a Gaza administrative committee and deploying a stabilization force.

Article 17 of the ceasefire agreement, which took effect on October 10, states that if Hamas delays or rejects the proposal, the measures listed above, including an expanded aid operation, will be carried out in areas free of terrorism that the Israeli army hands over to the international stabilization force.

The peace document signed in October by Hamas and Israel covered only the provisions of what is known as phase one.

This includes an initial truce, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, conditions for exchanging detainees and prisoners and facilitating humanitarian aid. No formal agreement has been reached on phase two, which relates to governing Gaza after the war.

Trump said on Thursday that phase two of his Gaza peace plan will be modified very soon, amid growing concern over its stalled implementation. He did not specify what the changes would entail.

Saeed Okasha, an Israeli affairs analyst at the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said Trump may be considering an adjustment anchored in article 17 to prevent the agreement from collapsing.

He said the article opens the way for dividing Gaza into an old Gaza and a new Gaza, an idea recently circulated by US envoy Steve Witkoff in several meetings last month.

Okasha said the amendment remains possible since the agreement was endorsed by the United Nations Security Council last month.

He said article 17 could be reactivated on grounds that Hamas has not met requirements for disarmament or other commitments, adding that such a shift could create a situation of neither war nor peace.

Ayman Al-Raqab, a Palestinian political analyst, said the lack of clarity over Trump’s intended changes has fueled concerns that any adjustment may entrench a division of Gaza at a time when Israel seeks to maintain a long term presence in the enclave. He said this aligns with proposals characterizing a new Gaza and an old Gaza.

Amid the uncertainty, the Axios news site reported that Trump plans to announce the start of phase two and unveil the new governance structure for Gaza before December 25. The site quoted two US officials as saying the formation of the international force and the governing body is in its final stages.

They expect Trump to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before the end of December to discuss the steps.

Al-Raqab said phase two still faces hurdles, including the absence of a peace council and a technocratic government, the lack of a police force to assume its duties and the pending formation of a stabilization force. He said no major moves are likely before January.

Okasha said he sees no immediate prospect other than Israel expanding the areas it controls in the enclave to about 60% as long as implementation of the agreement remains stalled, though without a major escalation similar to what Israel is carrying out in southern Lebanon.

Several days ago, the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported on an Israeli plan to resettle about two million Palestinians in new areas under Israeli control east of the Yellow Line and to empty areas held by Hamas of all civilians while pursuing Hamas members there over time.

British newspaper The Telegraph also quoted Western diplomats as saying the US plan for Gaza carries the risk of dividing the enclave permanently, entrenching the presence of Israeli forces in the devastated strip.

About a week ago, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty underscored during a meeting in Barcelona with European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas the importance of preserving the territorial unity of Palestine, including the West Bank and Gaza, and rejected any measures that would entrench separation or undermine prospects for a two state solution.

Abdelatty reiterated that position on Wednesday, saying, “There is no place for talk of dividing Gaza. Gaza is an integrated territorial unit and is an inseparable part of the future Palestinian state together with the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. These are binding international legitimacy resolutions and certainly must be upheld.”

He said consultations continue with relevant parties on forming a Gaza administrative committee made up of technocrats to manage affairs on the ground.

Okasha said Egyptian efforts will continue to prevent any division of Gaza or any amendment that would undermine the agreement, adding that various scenarios remain possible as developments unfold around Trump’s plan.

Arab World

Abu Shabab Successor Pledges to Keep Up Resistance to Hamas

A photo of Yasser Abu Shabab published by Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth. (File photo)
A photo of Yasser Abu Shabab published by Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth. (File photo)
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Abu Shabab Successor Pledges to Keep Up Resistance to Hamas

A photo of Yasser Abu Shabab published by Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth. (File photo)
A photo of Yasser Abu Shabab published by Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth. (File photo)

Hamas was taken by surprise by news of the killing of Yasser Abu Shabab, the self-styled leader of armed groups operating east of Rafah in southern Gaza.

The movement stayed silent until his men confirmed he had been shot dead, while Israel’s account of the incident continued to stir questions amid firm denials from several sides. Ghassan al-Dahini, who is expected to take over the Popular Forces, vowed to press on in defying Hamas.

Hamas’s position

Hamas sources told Asharq al-Awsat that the movement had no involvement in the incident and learned of it with surprise, even though it has a clear policy of using force against anyone who collaborates with Israel.

The sources said the movement also has high level instructions to deal in particular with armed cells that serve Israel, including Abu Shabab’s group and others.

According to the sources, Hamas’s leadership decided to withhold comment until the circumstances of the killing became clear. Once the details were verified, the movement issued a statement.

The sources acknowledged that Hamas had hoped Abu Shabab would be killed by his own fighters who remained in the Rafah tunnels throughout the past period, but at the same time conceded that his death would have far reaching implications for Israel’s reliance on such armed groups. The sources said these groups have failed to achieve Israel’s aims, whether in challenging Hamas’s strength in Gaza, taking control of large areas or even sowing Palestinian divisions.

In its statement on Abu Shabab’s killing, Hamas said his fate was inevitable for anyone “who betrayed his people and homeland and accepted being a tool in Israel’s hands”. It accused him of criminal acts that represented “a clear break with national and social norms”. The movement praised families, tribes and clans that disowned Abu Shabab and anyone who had cooperated with Israel.

Israel, Hamas said, “had failed to protect its agents and would not be able to protect any of its collaborators”. It added that “anyone who undermines the security of his own people and serves the enemy will end up in the dustbin of history and lose any respect or standing within his community”.

The Israeli account

The Popular Forces, which Abu Shabab headed, confirmed he was killed while trying to break up a family dispute between members of the Abu Seneima clan. It stressed that Hamas had nothing to do with his death, describing the movement as “too weak to harm” the general commander or his comrades.

The group did not address the Israeli version that surprised many Palestinians. That account claimed Abu Shabab was beaten and kicked to death by his own escorts and bodyguards amid disputes over positions, money and his cooperation with Israel.

Hamas sources said the Israeli narrative amounted to a clear abandonment of those who work for it and was designed to tarnish Abu Shabab and the circumstances of his death in a way that serves Israel’s current interest in ending the phenomenon of such armed groups.

Israel had nurtured and supported them, the sources said, but now understands they have little value in influencing Hamas’s grip on Gaza and have become a burden, having failed to deliver what Israel sought, which was to fracture Palestinian society and take control of wide areas.

The sources estimated that Israel is now keen to eliminate Abu Shabab and others, particularly under continued United States pressure to move to the second phase of the war. That shift would reduce the areas under Israeli control in Gaza, where these groups are present. Israel had hoped they would serve as a governing force for the enclave.

Yedioth Ahronoth reported on Friday that Abu Shabab’s killing, after some had portrayed him as a rising force challenging Hamas’s rule, paints a more troubling picture.

It said official Israeli reports point to a silent and brutal war within his armed faction and that his killing was not a routine incident but a moment that exposed the collapse of Israel’s idea of forming a local alternative force to fill the civilian and security vacuum left by Hamas.

Although the newspaper had been first to report the security establishment’s version that he died from a severe beating, it later noted that he was shot during a brawl between his men and local families that then escalated into internal disputes.

The paper said Abu Shabab, in an earlier interview, “had boasted that he had become the strongest man in Gaza and saw himself as Hamas’s replacement. But the man who thought he was leading a revolution was brought down by the forces he helped empower and his vision of a different Gaza ended with the bullet that struck him in the back.”

A weak successor

The newspaper said Abu Shabab’s death created a “dangerous” vacuum and that no stable entity currently exists to replace Hamas in leading Gaza. It said existing militias are divided and disorganized and that Abu Shabab’s deputy, Ghassan al-Dahini, might assume leadership, although his position is far from secure.

Al-Dahini suffered a minor leg injury during the same incident and was taken to Barzilai Medical Center in Ashkelon for treatment, according to Israel’s Army Radio.

He appeared in a short video posted on social media performing the funeral prayer for Abu Shabab alongside dozens of gunmen, led by an elderly bearded man whose identity was not known.

In a brief interview with the Israeli newspaper published Friday, Al-Dahini vowed to continue Abu Shabab’s project and resist Hamas by establishing an alternative to its rule.

Al-Dahini, a former Palestinian security officer, described Hamas as too weak to undermine anyone’s morale.

Sources told Asharq al-Awsat that Abu Shabab was killed by two young men from the Debari and Abu Seneima clans. The two were later killed in a gunfight with Abu Shabab’s men during the incident in which he was present.

Arab World

Lebanon Tells a UN Team the Country Will Need a Back-up Force Once Peacekeepers’ Term Ends

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, in front of the Lebanese flags (C), meets with a United Nations Security Council delegation at the government palace in Beirut, Lebanon, 05 December 2025. (EPA)
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, in front of the Lebanese flags (C), meets with a United Nations Security Council delegation at the government palace in Beirut, Lebanon, 05 December 2025. (EPA)
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Lebanon Tells a UN Team the Country Will Need a Back-up Force Once Peacekeepers’ Term Ends

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, in front of the Lebanese flags (C), meets with a United Nations Security Council delegation at the government palace in Beirut, Lebanon, 05 December 2025. (EPA)
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, in front of the Lebanese flags (C), meets with a United Nations Security Council delegation at the government palace in Beirut, Lebanon, 05 December 2025. (EPA)

The Lebanese prime minister on Friday told a visiting UN delegation that his country will need a follow-up force in southern Lebanon along the border with Israel to fill the vacuum once the UN peacekeepers' term expires by the end of next year.

The UN Security Council voted unanimously in August to terminate the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) at the end of 2026 — nearly five decades after the force was deployed. The multinational force has played a significant role in monitoring the security situation in the region, including during the Israel-Hezbollah war last year.

But it has drawn criticism from officials in President Donald Trump’s administration, which has moved to slash US funding for the operation as Trump remakes America’s approach to foreign policy.

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam held talks with the team representing the 15 members of the UN Security Council, saying he believes another, follow-up force would help Lebanese troops along the border where they have intensified efforts in the volatile area that witnessed the 14-month war between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group.

Salam proposed that a small follow-up force could work much like the UN observers force that has been deployed along Syria’s border with Israel since 1974.

There was no immediate response from the UN delegation, which arrived in Lebanon after a visit to Syria. Earlier Friday, the delegation also met with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, who said Lebanon would welcome any country's decision to keep its forces in southern Lebanon after UNIFIL's term expires.

Aoun also touted Lebanon’s appointment of former ambassador to Washington, Simon Karam, to head the Lebanese delegation to a previously military-only committee that monitors the US-brokered ceasefire that halted the latest Israel-Hezbollah war.

The appointment has angered Hezbollah, whose leader Sheikh Naim Qassem said in a televised speech later Friday that the appointment of the ex-ambassador was allegedly a “concession" to Israel.

Qassem said it would not change "the enemy’s stance and its aggression,” referring to Israel’s almost daily airstrikes on what the Israeli military says are Hezbollah targets in Lebanon since the ceasefire went into effect in November last year. The UN says that the Israeli strikes since the ceasefire have killed 127 civilians.

Israel’s air force carried out a series of airstrikes on Thursday in south Lebanon, saying it struck Hezbollah’s infrastructure. Warnings were issued in advance to evacuate the area.

The latest Israel-Hezbollah war began a day after Hamas attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, with Hezbollah firing rockets into Israel in solidarity with the Palestinian Hamas group. Israel's response operation that included bombardment and a ground operation last year has severely weakened Hezbollah.