Iran Shifts Focus from Lebanon War to Economic, Oil Challenges

A handout picture provided by the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shows him addressing members of the army's navy during an official gathering in Tehran on November 27, 2024. (Photo by KHAMENEI.IR / AFP)
A handout picture provided by the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shows him addressing members of the army's navy during an official gathering in Tehran on November 27, 2024. (Photo by KHAMENEI.IR / AFP)
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Iran Shifts Focus from Lebanon War to Economic, Oil Challenges

A handout picture provided by the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shows him addressing members of the army's navy during an official gathering in Tehran on November 27, 2024. (Photo by KHAMENEI.IR / AFP)
A handout picture provided by the office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei shows him addressing members of the army's navy during an official gathering in Tehran on November 27, 2024. (Photo by KHAMENEI.IR / AFP)

While officially welcoming the ceasefire in Lebanon, Tehran has expressed cautious and reserved positions on the recent developments. Even as it reiterates its intention to respond to Israeli actions, Iran has stated it will take “regional developments” into account before deciding its next steps.

Meanwhile, domestic debates about Iran’s economic challenges are intensifying. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf acknowledged the country’s struggles with oil production and transportation to global markets, while Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, described Iran’s economic problems as “chronic” and unlikely to be resolved easily.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on Wednesday that Iran reserves the right to respond to Israeli airstrikes conducted last month. However, he noted that Tehran is also closely monitoring other regional developments, including the ceasefire in Lebanon. Speaking to reporters in Lisbon, Araghchi welcomed the truce between Israel and Lebanon, expressing hope it would lead to a lasting peace. The Israeli strikes on Iran on October 26 came in response to a missile attack launched by Tehran on Israel earlier that month.

In a separate address to Iranian naval commanders, Khamenei called for enhancing the combat capabilities of Iran’s armed forces to deter potential aggressors. While Khamenei did not specifically mention the Lebanon ceasefire, he emphasized that military readiness must serve as a clear warning to adversaries that any confrontation will come at a high cost.

During a parliamentary session, Ghalibaf discussed Iran’s diminishing leverage in global oil markets. According to ISNA news agency, Ghalibaf remarked: “Oil was once our tool to threaten enemies, but that time is gone. What oil can we cut off? What market do we control?”

He further noted that Iran is currently incapable of achieving the 8% economic growth rate needed, citing the high costs of extracting natural gas as a significant hurdle.

“Even if Iran could produce oil,” he added, “it faces difficulties in transporting it.” Ghalibaf emphasized that Iran’s economic challenges extend far beyond issues such as the use of fuel oil in power plants.

The parliamentary speaker urged both reformist and conservative lawmakers to support the proposed Seventh Development Plan. He also criticized legislative delays in implementing development goals, highlighting the need for reforms in income tax policies and budget allocations for media, as reported by the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency.

Larijani acknowledged in a recorded 100-minute interview with Tasnim that Iran’s economy suffers from chronic issues, adding that Western sanctions alone are not to blame. Larijani briefly touched on the situation in Lebanon and Palestine but avoided addressing the fate of the “resistance” or the “unity of fronts.”



Netanyahu’s Move to Fire Security Agency Chief Threatens New Crisis in Israel

Ronen Bar, new chief of the Israel Security Agency (also known as Shabak or Shin Bet), enters a vehicle at an undisclosed location in central Israel on October 11, 2021. (AFP)
Ronen Bar, new chief of the Israel Security Agency (also known as Shabak or Shin Bet), enters a vehicle at an undisclosed location in central Israel on October 11, 2021. (AFP)
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Netanyahu’s Move to Fire Security Agency Chief Threatens New Crisis in Israel

Ronen Bar, new chief of the Israel Security Agency (also known as Shabak or Shin Bet), enters a vehicle at an undisclosed location in central Israel on October 11, 2021. (AFP)
Ronen Bar, new chief of the Israel Security Agency (also known as Shabak or Shin Bet), enters a vehicle at an undisclosed location in central Israel on October 11, 2021. (AFP)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bid to dismiss a top security official has threatened to plunge Israel back into deep political crisis, with opponents on Monday organizing protests and a former court president warning against the "dangerous" move.

Netanyahu on Sunday cited an "ongoing lack of trust" as the reason for moving to sack Ronen Bar, head of the Shin Bet internal security agency, following a similar bid by the government to oust the attorney general.

Bar, who has been engaged in a public spat with Netanyahu in recent weeks over reforms to the agency, suggested there were political motives behind the premier's decision to ask the government to dismiss him.

Attorney General Gali Baharav Miara -- the executive's top legal adviser who has often taken positions that clashed with those of Netanyahu's government -- said the move was "unprecedented" and its legality needed to be assessed.

Bar said it stemmed from his own refusal to meet Netanyahu's demands for "personal loyalty".

The agency led by Bar has been accused of failing to prevent the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack that triggered war in the Gaza Strip.

Several opposition parties have already announced they will jointly petition the High Court against Bar's dismissal, and the attorney general said in a letter to Netanyahu that he could not initiate the process "until the factual and legal foundation of your decision is fully clarified".

Baharav Miara is herself under threat of a no-confidence motion submitted by Justice Minister Yariv Levin, who has spearheaded efforts to reform the judiciary and curb the court's powers -- a plan that sparked major protests before coming to an abrupt halt with Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack.

Levin has accused Baharav Miara, a fierce defendant of the judiciary's independence, of "inappropriate conduct" and cited "significant and prolonged disagreements between the government and the attorney general".

The proceeding against the two figures promise to be lengthy, risking a repeat of the 2023 protest movement that was one of the most significant in Israel's history and had deeply fractured the country.

- 'Blow to national security' -

The Kaplan Force, a liberal umbrella organization which led the fight against the judicial reform, on Monday announced rallies in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv this week to protest the dismissal of the Shin Bet head.

The move to sack Bar, who has been involved in negotiations over the fragile ceasefire in Gaza, comes at a crucial time for the talks.

The truce has largely held since January 19 despite an impasse in efforts to extend it.

Since the Gaza war began, Netanyahu has dismissed his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, while several senior military officials have resigned including army chief Herzi Halevi.

Benny Gantz, an opposition figure who once served as defense minister under Netanyahu, said on X that "the dismissal of the head of the Shin Bet is a direct blow to national security and a dismantling of unity within Israeli society, driven by political and personal considerations."

Former Supreme Court president Dorit Beinisch told Kan public radio that Netanyahu was leading "processes that are dangerous for society".

"We need to wake up, and to wake up in time," she said.

- 'Power-grab' -

For Netanyahu's allies, the move against Bar falls within the normal rights of the head of government.

"In what normal country is a special reason even needed to remove the head of an intelligence organization who is personally responsible for a massive intelligence failure that led to the greatest disaster in the history of Israel?" far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich wrote on Telegram.

Nahum Barnea, columnist for the daily Yedioth Ahronoth, warned of the dangers stemming from the clash between Netanyahu and Bar.

"A prime minister who has lost his brakes will rule as he sees fit, and his failed government will follow in his wake," he wrote.

"It is gradually inching us closer to a form of civil war... in which there is no trust and a refusal to obey in security organizations".

For Amir Tibon, writing for the left-wing daily Haaretz, "Israeli democracy is now in grave danger".

"It's up to Israelis to decide if they'll accept Netanyahu's hostile power-grab -- and how far they will go to stop it".