Portuguese Head to the Polls in Election Unlikely to Yield Stable Government

A voter casts a ballot at a polling station during the general election in Espinho, Portugal, May 18, 2025. (Reuters)
A voter casts a ballot at a polling station during the general election in Espinho, Portugal, May 18, 2025. (Reuters)
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Portuguese Head to the Polls in Election Unlikely to Yield Stable Government

A voter casts a ballot at a polling station during the general election in Espinho, Portugal, May 18, 2025. (Reuters)
A voter casts a ballot at a polling station during the general election in Espinho, Portugal, May 18, 2025. (Reuters)

Polls opened across Portugal on Sunday as millions of voters started casting their ballots in a third parliamentary election in as many years, though many are bracing for more uncertainty as the vote is unlikely to deliver a stable government.

Sunday's ballot was called just one year into the center-right minority government's term after Prime Minister Luis Montenegro failed to win parliament's confidence in March in a vote he himself proposed when the opposition questioned his integrity over the dealings of his family's consultancy firm.

Montenegro has denied any wrongdoing and most opinion polls have shown voters dismissing the opposition's criticism.

Polling stations are open from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. (0700-1800 GMT), with exit polls expected from 8 p.m. (1900 GMT).

The election, also dominated by issues such as housing and immigration, follows a decade of fragile governments, only one of which has had a parliamentary majority but which still collapsed halfway through its term last year.

Opinion polls show Montenegro's Democratic Alliance (AD) garnering the most votes and probably a few more seats than in the previous election in March 2024, but again no parliamentary majority.

"We can't have elections every year," said 26-year-old bank worker Diogo Lima, adding the AD should be left to govern even if it does not win the election by a significant margin.

Outside the polling station where Montenegro will vote in the northern city of Espinho, some voters queued from early in the day, with one, Irene Medeiros, 77, saying the "best candidate must win" but that she was afraid of greater political instability.

'ONLY DOUBT'

AD's perennial rival, the center-left Socialist Party (PS), was polling about 26%, behind the AD on more than 32%, in Radio Renascenca's "poll of polls" aggregator.

Political scientist Antonio Costa Pinto said the new parliament would likely be similar to the last, and it was impossible to predict how long the government would last, as it depended on factors ranging from the international situation to the AD's ability to reach deals with other parties.

"The only doubt is whether the AD will form a new minority government ... or whether it will form a post-electoral coalition with IL, even if this coalition does not guarantee an absolute majority," he said, referring to the pro-business Liberal Initiative (IL) party, standing fourth in the polls.

It has some affinities with Montenegro's AD and many analysts see them as natural partners, but IL's polling numbers throughout the campaign have been insufficient for a potential alliance between the two to reach a majority of 116 in the 230-seat parliament, which requires at least 42% of the vote.

Voter turnout is usually low in Portugal, and some political analysts have expressed concern it could be even lower this year due to election fatigue.

The far-right Chega party, with which Montenegro refuses any deals, has been polling in third place on about 18%, similar to its result last year, though last-minute health problems for its leader Andre Ventura could influence the outcome.

After undergoing treatment in hospital twice in the past week due to an esophageal spasm, he made a surprise appearance at his party's final event on Friday.



Somalia’s Al-Shabaab Vows to Fight Any Israeli Use of Somaliland

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (AFP)
Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (AFP)
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Somalia’s Al-Shabaab Vows to Fight Any Israeli Use of Somaliland

Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (AFP)
Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on December 26, 2025. (AFP)

Somalia's Al-Qaeda-linked militant group Al-Shabaab vowed Saturday to fight any attempt by Israel "to claim or use parts of Somaliland" following its recognition of the breakaway territory.

"We will not accept it, and we will fight against it," Al-Shabaab said in a statement.

Its spokesman Ali Dheere said in the statement that Israel's recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state showed it "has decided to expand into parts of the Somali territories" to support "the apostate administration in the northwest regions".

Israel said Friday it was officially recognizing Somaliland, a first for the self-proclaimed republic that in 1991 declared it had unilaterally seceded from Somalia.

Mogadishu immediately denounced a "deliberate attack" on its sovereignty, while Egypt, Türkiye, the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council and the Saudi-based Organization of Islamic Cooperation all condemned Israel's move.

Regional analysts believe that a rapprochement with Somaliland could allow Israel to secure better access to the Red Sea.

In addition, press reports a few months ago said Somaliland was among a handful of African territories willing to host Palestinians expelled by Israel, but neither the Somaliland authorities nor the Israeli government has ever commented on those reports.

"It is humiliation of the highest level today, to see some Somali people celebrating a recognition by the Israeli Prime Minister (Benjamin) Netanyahu" when "Israel is the biggest enemy of the Islamic society".

The territory of Somaliland is roughly a third the size of France and corresponds more or less to the former British Somaliland protectorate.

It has its own money, army and police and enjoys relative stability compared to its neighbors.

But, until now, Somaliland had not been publicly recognized by any country, which has kept it politically and economically isolated despite its location on one of the world's busiest trade routes connecting the Indian Ocean to the Suez Canal.

Somalia has been battling Al-Shabaab for nearly 20 years and while security has significantly improved in Mogadishu, the war still rages 60 kilometers from the capital.


China Welcomes Cambodia-Thailand Ceasefire, Plans Talks

A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit exchanging ceasefire agreement documents during a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit exchanging ceasefire agreement documents during a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)
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China Welcomes Cambodia-Thailand Ceasefire, Plans Talks

A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit exchanging ceasefire agreement documents during a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)
A handout photo made available by the Defense Ministry of Thailand shows Cambodian Defense Minister Tea Seiha (L) and Thai Defense Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit exchanging ceasefire agreement documents during a General Border Committee Meeting in Ban Pak Kard, Chanthaburi Province, Thailand, 27 December 2025. (EPA/Defense Ministry of Thailand/Handout)

China on Saturday welcomed a joint ceasefire statement signed by Cambodia and Thailand and said its foreign minister would meet his counterparts from both countries in China, according to a notice posted on the foreign ministry's website late in the day.

Cambodia and Thailand agreed ‌on Saturday to ‌a second ceasefire ‌in ⁠recent months, ‌ending weeks of intense border clashes described as the worst fighting in years between the two Southeast Asian neighbors.

China's foreign ministry said the agreement showed that dialogue and consultation ⁠were practical and effective ways to resolve ‌complex disputes.

Foreign Minister Wang ‍Yi will meet ‍Cambodian counterpart Prak Sokhonn and ‍Thailand's Sihasak Phuangketkeow in southwestern Yunnan province on December 28–29, the ministry said, adding that military representatives from all three countries would also attend.

China said it was willing to continue ⁠providing a platform and facilitating more substantive and detailed communication between Cambodia and Thailand.

"China will play a constructive role in its own way to help Cambodia and Thailand consolidate the ceasefire, resume exchanges, rebuild political mutual trust, achieve a turnaround in relations and maintain regional ‌peace," the ministry said.


Netanyahu to Meet Trump in US on Monday for Talks on Iran, Gaza, Hezbollah, Syria

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (not pictured) after a trilateral meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (not pictured) after a trilateral meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (AFP)
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Netanyahu to Meet Trump in US on Monday for Talks on Iran, Gaza, Hezbollah, Syria

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (not pictured) after a trilateral meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (AFP)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a joint press conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides (not pictured) after a trilateral meeting in Jerusalem on December 22, 2025. (AFP)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to meet US President Donald Trump in Florida on Monday, an Israeli official told AFP, in what is seen as a crucial visit for the next steps of the fragile Gaza truce plan.

It will be Netanyahu's fifth visit to see key ally Trump in the United States this year.

His trip comes as the Trump administration and regional mediators push to proceed to the second stage of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

An Israeli official on Saturday said Netanyahu would leave for the US on December 28 and meet with Trump a day later in Florida, without providing a specific location.

Trump told reporters in mid-December that Netanyahu would probably visit him in Florida during the Christmas holidays.

"He would like to see me. We haven't set it up formally, but he'd like to see me," Trump said before leaving for his Mar-a-Lago resort.

Israel's Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported on Wednesday that a wide range of regional issues was expected to be discussed, including Iran, talks on an Israel-Syria security agreement, the ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the next stages of the Gaza deal.

- 'Going nowhere' -

Concerning Gaza, the timing of the meeting is "very significant", said Gershon Baskin, the co-head of peacebuilding commission the Alliance for Two States, who has taken part in back-channel negotiations with Hamas.

"Phase one is basically over, there's one remaining Israeli deceased hostage which they (Hamas) are having difficulty finding," he told AFP.

"Phase two has to begin, it's even late and I think the Americans realize that it's late because Hamas has had too much time to re-establish its presence and this is certainly not a situation that the Americans want to leave in place," he added.

Progress in moving to the second phase of October's Gaza ceasefire agreement, which was brokered by Washington and its regional allies, has so far been slow.

Both sides allege frequent ceasefire violations and mediators fear that Israel and Hamas alike are stalling.

Under the next stages, Israel is supposed to withdraw from its positions in Gaza, an interim authority is to govern the Palestinian territory instead of Hamas, and an international stabilization force (ISF) is to be deployed.

It also includes a provision for Palestinian movement Hamas to lay down its weapons -- a major sticking point.

On Friday, US news outlet Axios reported that the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu was key to advancing to the next steps of the deal.

Citing White House officials, Axios said that the Trump administration wanted to announce the Palestinian technocratic government for Gaza and the ISF as soon as possible.

It reported that senior Trump officials were growing exasperated "as Netanyahu has taken steps to undermine the fragile ceasefire and stall the peace process".

"There are more and more signs that the American administration is getting frustrated with Netanyahu," said Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East expert at London-based think-tank Chatham House.

"The question is what it's going to do about it," he added, "because phase two is right now going nowhere."

- Iran tops agenda -

While the Trump administration is keen for progress on Gaza, analysts said the prospect of Iran rebuilding its nuclear program and ballistic missile capabilities was likely to top the agenda for Netanyahu.

"All the news that we've heard in the Israeli media over the last two weeks about Iran building up its missiles and being a threat to Israel is all part of a planned strategy of deflecting attention from Gaza to the issue that Netanyahu loves to talk about which is Iran," said Baskin.

In June, Israel launched strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites as well as residential areas.

Iran responded with drone and missile strikes on Israel, and later on in the 12-day war, the United States joined Israel in targeting Iranian nuclear facilities.

Mekelberg shared the view that Netanyahu could be attempting to shift attention from Gaza onto Iran.

With Israel entering an election year, Mekelberg said with regards to the Trump meeting, Netanyahu would be "taking a defensive approach, to minimize what can be difficult for him coming back home".

"Everything is connected to staying in power," he said of the long-time Israeli premier.