Despite reassurances in Israel after US President Donald Trump said the war on Iran would continue for another two to three weeks, Israeli assessments still warn of a possible abrupt policy shift that could halt the conflict “before its objectives are complete.”
Security sources say Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains intent on prolonging the war despite heavy losses, seeking to turn it into a drawn-out war of attrition. Trump, however, is viewed as aiming to deny Tehran that leverage.
Sources quoted by Israeli outlet Walla said ending the war sooner could allow Israel and the United States to better assess the impact of their strikes, amid growing opposition to the conflict in the United States and Western countries, as well as waning support within Israel.
According to Channel 12, Iran has sustained extensive damage. The United States and Israel have struck 19,650 targets — including 11,000 by US forces — killing 55 senior figures, among them 22 top-level leaders. Around 4,700 sites linked to ballistic missile production and storage were destroyed, eliminating about 90 percent of that capability, along with 150 naval vessels.
Still, Iran has continued to launch missiles. Only 14 percent of its strikes targeted Israel — 411 barrages involving 585 missiles and 765 drones — while the rest were directed at roughly 14 countries, most of them Arab or Muslim states, the report underlined.
Better prepared than expected
Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies and former head of the Iran desk in Israeli military intelligence, told Ynet that Iran retains significant capabilities and appears better prepared than Israel and the United States had expected.
He said statements by Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf about an “eye-for-an-eye” policy indicate that Iran’s command structure remains intact and that its missile launches follow a coordinated strategy.
“This is not random fire,” Citrinowicz said. “There is a strategic and operational plan.”
He cited a pattern of reciprocal strikes, including attacks in southern Iran followed by the first strike on the Haifa oil refinery, then an attack on the Natanz nuclear facility and a retaliatory strike on Israel’s Dimona reactor.
Further exchanges included strikes on Iranian steel plants and on an Israeli facility in Neot Hovav in the Negev desert. Iran later targeted the Haifa refinery again after Israeli attacks on its electricity infrastructure.
Citrinowicz said Tehran is seeking to establish a deterrence equation that goes beyond Israel alone. He pointed to an attack on Ras Laffan that disrupted 17 percent of Qatar’s gas production following strikes on the South Pars field in southern Iran.
He also highlighted a new risk: threats by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to any major escalation or ground incursion.
Such a move would mark a significant escalation, he warned. Iran’s strategy is not parity, but escalation to impose new rules of engagement and deter future attacks.
Citrinowicz said the next phase could include strikes on academic institutions, noting recent threats by the Revolutionary Guard against Israeli universities.
These assessments reflect a broader shift in Israel, where officials increasingly believe the war will not destroy Iran, but could delay its strategic programs for several years, requiring future confrontation.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel had removed an existential threat, but cautioned the conflict would not be its last.
He stated: “Our enemies still exist. They have suffered a severe blow, but we must remain prepared.”
Israeli and US forces, meanwhile, are continuing their intensive strikes, aiming to further weaken Iran. According to Maariv, both sides agree Iran will not return to its pre-war status after the conflict.
