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Pakistani Delegation Arrives in Tehran in Move to Ease Tensions and Arrange More US-Iran Talks

A vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. (Reuters)
A vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. (Reuters)
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Pakistani Delegation Arrives in Tehran in Move to Ease Tensions and Arrange More US-Iran Talks

A vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. (Reuters)
A vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, off the coast of Oman’s Musandam province, April 12, 2026. (Reuters)

Pakistan’s army chief arrived Wednesday for talks in Tehran in the latest diplomatic move to ease tensions in the Middle East and arrange a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran after almost seven weeks of war. 

The Pakistani military said the delegation also included the country's interior minister and other senior security officials. The group is “part of the ongoing mediation efforts,” the military said, but it gave no details. 

Pakistan has emerged as a key mediator in the conflict after it hosted rare direct talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad, a move authorities said helped narrow differences between the two sides. 

Meanwhile, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif arrived in Saudi Arabia on an official visit to discuss regional issues. A statement from Sharif’s office said he was received at the airport in Jeddah by senior Saudi officials. Sharif was accompanied by Pakistan's foreign minister and information minister. 

Progress  

The US blockade on Iranian ports and renewed Iranian threats strained the week-old ceasefire agreement, but regional officials said they were making progress, telling The Associated Press that the United States and Iran had an “in principle agreement” to extend it to allow for more diplomacy. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter. 

But even as mediators worked for peace, tensions simmered. The commander of Iran’s joint military command, Ali Abdollahi, threatened to halt trade in the region if the US does not lift its naval blockade. 

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei, announcing the incoming Pakistani delegation, said Islamabad “has held discussions with the Americans and has also heard our stances. During this visit the views of both sides are to be discussed in detail.” 

A senior US official said the United States has not formally agreed to extend the ceasefire and that “engagement” with Iran continues. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the sensitive negotiations. 

Sticking points  

Before the two-week ceasefire expires on April 22, mediators are pushing for a compromise on three main sticking points that derailed direct talks last weekend — Iran’s nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz and compensation for wartime damages, according to a regional official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the mediation efforts. 

Baghaei said Iran is open to discussing the type and level of its uranium enrichment, but his country “based on its needs, must be able to continue enrichment,” Iran’s state-media reported. 

The negotiating team led by Vice President JD Vance during last weekend's talks in Islamabad urged the Iranians to agree to a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment as part of a potential deal to end the war, according to a regional official involved in the mediation efforts and a person briefed on the matter. 

The Iranians rejected the US plan and countered with an offer to suspend enrichment for five years, the regional official and the person briefed on the matter added. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment publicly on the negotiations. 

The White House rejected the Iranian proposal. The US and Iranian proposals were first reported by The New York Times. 

The fighting has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, more than 2,100 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states. Thirteen US service members have also been killed. 

Trump says Iran wants a deal  

The war, now in its seventh week, has jolted markets and rattled the global economy as shipping has been cut off and airstrikes have torn through military and civilian infrastructure across the region. Oil prices fell on hopes for an end to fighting on Wednesday, and US stocks surged close to records set in January. 

Yet the future of the fragile ceasefire still hung in the balance as the US pressed ahead with its blockade, which threatens to sever Iran from economic lifelines it has relied on since the war began nearly seven weeks ago, and Tehran threatened regional trade. 

“I think they want to make a deal very badly,” US President Donald Trump said in an excerpt from an interview with the Fox Business Network’s “Mornings with Maria” that aired Wednesday.  

He added: “I view it as very close to over.” 

Trump claimed Wednesday that China has agreed not to provide weapons to Iran as reports circulated that Beijing has considered transferring arms. 

Trump wrote in a social media post that China is “very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz.” He added: “They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran.” He seemed to suggest the two are linked. 

China has long supported Iran’s ballistic missile program and backed it with dual-use industrial components that can be used for missile production, according to the US government. 

US military says no ships got past blockade  

US Central Command said Wednesday that no ships made it past the blockade in the first 48 hours, while nine merchant vessels complied with direction from US forces to turn around and reenter Iranian waters. 

The blockade is intended to pressure Iran, which has exported millions of barrels of oil, mostly to Asia, since the war began Feb. 28. Much of it has likely been carried by so-called dark transits that evade sanctions and oversight, providing cash that’s been vital to keeping Iran running. 

Since the war began, Iran has curtailed maritime traffic, with most commercial vessels avoiding the waterway. Tehran's effective closure of the strait, through which a fifth of global oil transits in peacetime, has sent oil prices skyrocketing, pushing up the cost of gasoline, food and other basic goods far beyond the Middle East. 

Strikes continue in Lebanon after Washington talks  

Elsewhere, Israel pressed ahead with its aerial and ground war in Lebanon. The country's National News Agency reported airstrikes and artillery shelling throughout southern Lebanon on Wednesday, including near Bint Jbeil, where Israeli forces have encircled fighters with the Lebanese Iran-backed group Hezbollah. 

The fighting continued after Israeli and Lebanese officials concluded their first direct talks in decades. 

The Lebanese Health Ministry said Israel struck three different teams of paramedics Wednesday in southern Lebanon, first hitting one team and then two more that rushed to help. The attacks killed three paramedics, wounded six others and left a fourth missing in the southern town of Mayfadoun, the ministry said.  

The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

An Israeli official said a meeting of the country's security cabinet would be held Wednesday evening to discuss developments with Lebanon. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media. 

Israel and Lebanon have technically been at war since Israel was established in 1948, and Lebanon remains deeply divided over diplomatic engagement with Israel. 

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World

Mounting Pressure on Iran Revives the Specter of the 2000 Aden Attack

US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush
US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush
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Mounting Pressure on Iran Revives the Specter of the 2000 Aden Attack

US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush
US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush

US author Anne-Marie Slaughter argues in The Chessboard and the Web: Strategies of Connection in a Networked World that the world no longer operates or interacts according to the logic of a traditional chessboard.

The old model was linear and two-dimensional, centered on a single objective: toppling the king by controlling territory.

That logic no longer defines 21st-century conflict. Today’s world operates across overlapping, interlocking layers that interact and often collide simultaneously, within a continuously evolving network that includes military, economic, political, alliance, and informational dimensions.

As this network evolves, it generates both solutions and complications so rapidly that they outpace the ability of leadership to make timely decisions. Improvisation comes to dominate decision-making, errors multiply and accumulate, feeding back into the system and further deepening its complexity.

On the escalation ladder

Escalation depends on strategic flexibility and the tools available. In practical terms, the greater the flexibility, the greater the ability of actors to climb the escalation ladder, from low-intensity conflict to higher levels, until reaching a peak where one side yields, either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.

But this climb is inherently a trap. Each step builds on the last. As these steps accumulate over time, the cost compounds, making it increasingly difficult to step back without incurring significant losses.

The US blockade

This is not the first time the US Navy has imposed a maritime blockade. The most notable case was Cuba in the 1960s during the Cuban Missile Crisis, labeled a “quarantine,” a term deliberately used to indicate a measure short of full wartime blockade. Cuba’s geography made it relatively easy to encircle.

A similar approach was later applied to Venezuela. Today, the focus has shifted to Iranian ports, both inside and outside the Gulf.

Direct comparisons are limited by differing contexts. Still, one constant remains: the US Navy possesses the capability to enforce such blockades, particularly given its dominance over global seas and oceans.

In Cuba, Soviet missiles targeted major US cities and the world was divided between two superpowers. In Venezuela, President Donald Trump invoked the Monroe Doctrine and implemented a national security strategy prioritizing the Western Hemisphere and America’s immediate sphere.

The Strait of Hormuz, however, is fundamentally different. Other waterways can be bypassed; Hormuz cannot. It is a closed corridor through which oil, gas, petrochemicals, helium, fertilizers, and other critical goods must pass. There is no alternative route; all shipments must transit Hormuz in both directions.

Iran’s strategy

Since the Shah’s era, aligned with the Nixon Doctrine, Tehran has pursued control over Gulf waters and influence over the Strait of Hormuz. The continued occupation of the UAE islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa since the 1970s underscores this long-standing strategic objective.

More than 30 islands are scattered across the Gulf’s deep waters, precisely along the routes used by oil tankers that require significant depth to pass safely. If linked together as part of a military-security network, they reveal long-term planning for scenarios such as the current one.

Iran’s naval doctrine relies on both the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy, employing small submarines, torpedoes, fast attack boats, naval mines, drones, and ballistic missiles.

At its core lies an anti-access strategy designed to deny adversaries freedom of movement in Gulf waters.

Centers of gravity

Qeshm Island is critical for controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg Island follows, serving as the hub for more than 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports, supplied by the oil fields of Khuzestan.

Beyond the islands, the South Pars gas field in Bushehr province is central to Iran’s energy system, providing more than 70 percent of the country’s domestic electricity needs.

These key sites have already been targeted during the conflict by US or Israeli airpower. To expand the scope of escalation and increase pressure, Trump deployed additional forces, including Marine units and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, aimed at broadening military options and forcing Iran to soften its negotiating position. After talks in Pakistan failed, he moved to announce the blockade.

The current US approach

By declaring the blockade, Trump effectively altered the existing rules of engagement in the Gulf, imposing an asymmetric approach that avoids Iran’s strengths and prevents it from dictating the battlefield dynamics.

Instead, the US leverages distance, operating from the Arabian Sea, along with its technological superiority and strategic flexibility.

This effectively turns Iran’s own strategy against it. What once constrained US freedom of movement inside the Gulf is now being used to impose external pressure on Iran from the Arabian Sea.

If successful, the strategy could deprive Iran, according to The Wall Street Journal, of roughly $435 million per day, or $13 billion per month, while avoiding the costs of direct military action such as seizing islands like Kharg.

It would also confine Iran’s asymmetric capabilities within the Gulf and strip it of its most effective operational tools.

The central question now is how Iran will respond. How will it adapt its strategy in the face of this pressure? Will escalation continue? And could that escalation take the form of a maritime attack similar to the 2000 strike on the US destroyer USS Cole near Aden?

World

Iran Can Go up to Two Months without Oil Exports Before Cutting Output, Analysts Say

A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)
A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)
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Iran Can Go up to Two Months without Oil Exports Before Cutting Output, Analysts Say

A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)
A man rides past a large billboard referring to the Strait of Hormuz in Tehran's Vanak Square on April 15, 2026. (AFP)

Iran can withstand a complete halt in oil exports of up to two months before being forced to curb production, analysts said, after the US began blocking shipping in and out of the country's ports on April 13.

The blockade could prevent roughly 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude from reaching its main buyer China.

Any Iranian production shutdowns would add to more than 12 million bpd of supply already disrupted by the regional war, tightening markets further and ‌lifting oil ‌prices.

With its exports blocked, Iran faces having to ‌divert ⁠crude into onshore storage ⁠tanks. Once those tanks are filled, the OPEC member would be required to curb upstream output.

Consultancy FGE NextantECA estimates Iran has about 90 million barrels of available onshore crude storage capacity, out of total capacity of roughly 122 million barrels.

"Iran can sustain current production of around 3.5 million bpd for roughly two months without exports, extendable to around three months with a modest ⁠500,000 bpd production cut," FGE NextantECA said in a ‌note.

Iranian domestic refineries process about 2 million ‌bpd of oil, they added.

The relevant Iranian authorities were not immediately available for comment.

Energy ‌Aspects assumes significantly lower available onshore storage of about 30 million barrels, ‌based on data from Kayrros.

Under that scenario, Iran could maintain current export levels for about 16 days before storage capacity runs out, based on export levels of 1.8 million bpd.

"The blockade may not have a significant impact on Iranian production in ‌April, but if it continues into May then output would need to be reduced substantially," said Richard ⁠Bronze, co-founder of Energy ⁠Aspects.

He said the consultancy assumes Iran cannot utilize its full nameplate storage capacity, adding that historic data show stocks peaked at 92 million barrels in May 2020, which likely marks a realistic ceiling.

Bronze also said Iran will likely deploy available oil tankers in ports as floating storage, delaying production cuts.

The US military said more vessels were being turned back under the blockade, including the Chinese-owned tanker Rich Starry, which is under US sanctions and which was seen heading back through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.

Eight Iran-linked oil tankers have been intercepted since the blockade began on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported. A US destroyer stopped two tankers attempting to leave Iran's Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday, a US official said.

World

World Bank Announces Water Security Plan for One Billion People

A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
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World Bank Announces Water Security Plan for One Billion People

A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)
A girl carries jerrycans on a wheelbarrow after collecting water from a well at a mosque in Deh Mazang, Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, April 2, 2026. (AP)

The World Bank announced a plan Wednesday that aims to improve secure water access for a billion people within the next four years.

The new "Water Forward" program aims to "expand reliable water services and strengthen systems against droughts and floods."

The Bank said its own funds and technical advice would help improve water supplies to some 400 million people by 2030, with the balance coming from partners.

Regional development banks, OPEC's development fund, and the BRICS-aligned New Development Bank are among institutions that will participate, the World Bank said.

The global lender did not specify how much capital it would commit to the initiative.

Some four billion people -- half the world's population -- face water scarcity, due in part to "unclear policies, weak regulations, and financially unsustainable utilities that have slowed progress and deterred investment," the Bank said.

The global lender said that 14 countries had already voluntarily committed to reform and strengthen their water sectors under the new program.

The focus on governance issues -- not simply physical water infrastructure -- is promising, David Michel, senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.

"In many countries, the water sector fails to fully deploy the funds already allocated to it."

However, the Bank's initiative "faces a long and difficult road ahead," he warned.

The issue of access to safe drinking water, in particular, has been highlighted during the war in the Middle East, with desalination plants in Iran and across the region damaged in bombardments.

Beyond conflicts and immediate drinking water needs, the World Bank said that better water security was needed to grow the global economy.

"Strong water systems are foundational to healthy economies that can attract private investment and create jobs," the Bank said.