US intelligence assesses that Iran’s new supreme leader is playing a critical role in shaping war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials, according to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence, reported CNN on Saturday.
The reports found that “precise authority within a now-fractured regime remains unclear, but that Mojtaba Khamenei is likely helping direct how Iran is managing negotiations with the US to end the war.”
Khamenei has not been seen in public since he sustained serious injuries during an attack that killed his father and several of the country’s top military leaders at the beginning of the war, leading to speculation about his health and role in the Iranian leadership structure.
The Trump administration continues to pursue a diplomatic end to the conflict as a ceasefire stretches past a month with US intelligence assessing that Iran continues to dig out from the US bombing campaign that left significant Iranian military capabilities intact and the ability to survive months more of an American blockade, according to sources.
Khamenei was announced as Iran’s new supreme leader replacing his father days after the strike that injured him, but to date the US intelligence community has not been able to visually confirm his whereabouts, the sources said.
“Part of the uncertainty stems from Khamenei not using any electronics to communicate, instead only interacting with those who can visit him in-person or by sending messages via a courier,” one of the sources added.
“Khamenei remains isolated as he continues to receive medical treatment for his injuries, including bad burns on one side of his body impacting his face, arm, torso, leg,” the sources added, according to CNN.
Mazaher Hosseini, head of protocol in the office of Iran’s supreme leader, on Friday said Khamenei is healing from his injuries and “is now in complete health.” Hosseini said Khamenei’s foot and lower back were slightly injured and that “a small piece of shrapnel had hit him behind the ear,” but that the wounds are healing.
Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, told Iranian state media earlier this week that he had held a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with Khamenei, marking the first reported in-person meeting between a top Iranian official and the country’s new supreme leader.
What US officials do know about Khamenei’s status is based on information picked up from those who are communicating with him, the sources familiar told CNN. “There is, however, some question among intelligence analysts as to whether some in Iran’s power structure might be claiming access to Khamenei to coopt his authority to push their own agendas.”
The war has degraded Iran’s military capabilities, but not destroyed them, according to US intelligence reports. CNN previously reported that US intelligence assessed that roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers had survived US strikes. A recent report increased that figure to two thirds partially due to the ongoing ceasefire providing Iran with time to dig out launchers that might have been buried in previous strikes, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.
A separate CIA report found that Iran can likely last up to four more months of the ongoing American blockade without complete destabilization of its economy, the sources said.
While US intelligence assessments indicate that Khamenei is involved in helping develop Iran’s negotiating strategy for a diplomatic end to the war, one source familiar with the latest information told CNN there is evidence he is fairly removed from the decision-making process and only sporadically accessible.
As a result, senior Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps officials are essentially running the day-to-day operations along with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the source added. “There is no indication he is actually giving orders on any ongoing basis but nothing proving he is not,” a second source familiar with the US intelligence assessments said, referring to Khamenei.
