US forces in the Middle East are prepared to launch new, potentially major, military operations against Iran “within 96 hours of receiving” an order from President Donald Trump, two US officials told CNN on Monday.
Sufficient forces are now deployed in the region to carry out the potential attacks, the sources said.
The scope of new US military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking radars, launchers and other Iranian assets that can be quickly reconstituted — as has been the case since Trump halted full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.
“It will be a big effort,” one of the officials told CNN. That view has been echoed by other current and former US officials familiar with internal military planning discussions — some of whom say it is a question of when, not if, Trump will issue a go-order. They believe it could come any time before the end of the year, though most likely after the US midterm election.
Potential Targets Include Energy, Nuclear Facilities
Iranian forces are now more familiar with US tactics, and it would therefore be harder for the American military to effectively destroy all potential intended targets. However, leaders in US Central Command and the Pentagon have been developing a wide-ranging target list, which includes Iranian energy infrastructure, military sites and nuclear facilities.
Officials say that Trump has not made up his mind on what he will do after the midterms but that he appears to be leaning toward ordering major action. But officials also caution that Trump has appeared in the past to lean toward certain actions only to back off at the last moment.
The White House declined to comment.
A senior Pentagon official told CNN in a statement, “The Department is a planning organization, and its job is to develop and execute military options ordered by the President.”
Recent US intelligence assessments indicate Iran and Houthis are taking the possibility of renewed attacks by the US and potentially Israel very seriously, according to two additional sources familiar with the matter.
If the US and Israel launch new military operations against Iran, Tehran and the Houthis would likely retaliate immediately by targeting American personnel and facilities around the region — and potentially beyond, the sources familiar with those recent US intelligence assessments said.
An unclassified October 23 memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio says US intelligence has found that “Iran has substantially increased efforts to target US personnel” and plotting efforts “have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries,” CNN previously reported.
US intelligence officials believe Iran and the Houthis are unlikely to carry out preemptive escalatory attacks against American personnel or Israel at this point but would not hesitate to respond if Iran is targeted first by US or Israeli forces, one of the sources familiar with the latest American intelligence assessments noted.
Amid these developments, Admiral Brad Cooper, the CENTCOM commander, visited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday as the US military maintains its blockade on Iranian ports and assists shipping traffic through the critical waterway.
Cooper “observed the current operational environment” while flying over the strait in a helicopter, CENTCOM said, adding that he met with service members who cleared the waterway of Iranian mines.
“We continue to stand shoulder to shoulder with our Gulf partners and the shipping industry,” Cooper said in a news release. “This visit underscores our strong commitment to continued freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Despite the increase in tankers transiting the strait, oil prices remain high, partly due to the threat of possible Iranian attacks.
One US official acknowledged the status quo around the strait is “untenable” for the long term, and barring a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough, is one reason Trump may turn to military action — despite questions about whether the White House has a broader strategy for ending the conflict.
Netanyahu Pushing For More Strikes
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been pushing to carry out new attacks against Iran, but US officials have requested he delay until the Trump administration is ready to conduct joint operations, according to two US officials and an Israeli security source.
“Netanyahu really wanted and tried to convince Trump for a joint attack in Iran before the elections, and Trump did not give a green light,” the Israeli security source told CNN. The prime minister’s office said this was “fake news.”
Israel was preparing for the possibility of launching additional attacks against Iran in the last week or so and had been lobbying US officials to support and complement those new strikes, a source briefed on the matter told CNN. But senior US officials — including Trump — told Israel to hold off, instead signaling the two countries would launch joint operations soon.
Israel seemed to agree to delaying new strikes on Iran in part because it needs US support for missile defense, the source briefed on the matter added.
Israel Will Not Attack Before Elections
Israeli army chief of staff Eyal Zamir told US General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, that it would harm the elections in Israel and lead to their postponement, the Israeli security source added.
Israel’s Channel 12 News reported Sunday there was an “unprecedented” confrontation between Zamir and Netanyahu fewer than 48 hours before Tuesday’s vote.
According to the report, Zamir received a directive from the political echelon related to Iran but requested an in-depth discussion and legal authorizations before carrying it out, fearing the action could lead to a miscalculation that could trigger an immediate conflict.
Defense Minister Israel Katz said the report was “completely baseless and false.”
Tehran: Outcome of Israeli Elections ‘Makes No Difference’
Iran's foreign ministry said Monday that the outcome of the Israeli elections in which Netanyahu is facing a tight race will make “no difference.”
“It makes no difference to us who, in these elections, takes the helm of a regime that has brought nothing but violence and massacres to our region,” said ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei in a weekly press briefing.
Tuesday's legislative elections will take place amid mounting threats by Israel and the United States to renew attacks on Iran after they launched their war in late February.
Netanyahu has in recent days repeatedly said the only way to remove the threat posed by Iran is to topple its government.
