Israeli Settlers Believe US Criticism of Expansion a Formality, Plan to Proceed

The new housing projects in the Israeli settlement of Givat Zeev in the West Bank (AP)
The new housing projects in the Israeli settlement of Givat Zeev in the West Bank (AP)
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Israeli Settlers Believe US Criticism of Expansion a Formality, Plan to Proceed

The new housing projects in the Israeli settlement of Givat Zeev in the West Bank (AP)
The new housing projects in the Israeli settlement of Givat Zeev in the West Bank (AP)

Israeli Settlements Minister Orit Strock will proceed with her settlement-expanding projects for the benefit of the settlers, considering the US criticism of increasing funding a formality, according to informed sources.

The sources said Strock is happy to collect about $280 million, seeking to allocate another billion from the 2023-2024 budget to strengthen the Jewish presence in Judea and Samaria, even if Washington does not like this.

The settlers' website, Channel 7, revealed that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich would allocate vast amounts of money estimated at hundreds of millions under vague items for settlements, most of which are assigned to existing locations north of the Dead Sea, the Jordan Valley, and south of Hebron.

Smotrich is cooperating with the Ministry of the Interior to provide the infrastructure for several projects to bring in tens of thousands of new settlers.

The economic newspaper Calcalist revealed a plan to allocate about $180 million from the 2023-2024 budget to expand the settlements.

The newspaper stated that this money would be deducted from the budget of other ministries, including education, security, and foreign affairs, in addition to a third of the budget allocated to Strock's ministry.

The law enacted in the Knesset provides for the abolition of the "reasonableness law" and will make it easier for the government to push such decisions with such arbitrary standards without the court intervening to cancel it.

On Thursday, the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, met the Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, who is close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The meeting addressed the importance of de-escalating tensions and Washington's commitment to a two-state solution to the Israeli conflict with Palestinians.

State Department Deputy spokesman Vedant Patel said that Blinken received the Israeli minister in Washington and told him that "expansion of settlements undermines the geographic viability of a two-state solution, and the US firmly opposes it.

Patel explained that Blinken and Dermer also discussed "regional challenges like the continued threat posed by Iran and its proxies, and they discussed Israel's further integration into the region."

In his press conference, the spokesman was asked about the Netanyahu government's plan, led by Stork, to allocate about $180 million to expand and build illegal settlements and outposts in the West Bank. He asserted the administration's "clear and consistent" opposition to expanding settlements.

"It incites tensions, and further harms trust between the two parties. And we strongly oppose the advancements of settlements and urge Israel to refrain from this activity, including promoting outposts. We take this issue very seriously, and it impinges on the viability of a two-state solution."

Patel said Blinken stressed the importance of Israel and the Palestinians taking positive steps to de-escalate tensions and promote stability in the West Bank.

The two officials also addressed the ongoing efforts to promote Israel's full integration into the Middle East, referring to US efforts to mediate a normalization agreement with Arab countries.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”