Al-Maliki Gears Up for Pivotal Battle in Iraq’s Provincial Council Elections

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani alongside Nouri al-Maliki during a religious occasion in Baghdad last month (Office of the Iraqi Prime Minister).
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani alongside Nouri al-Maliki during a religious occasion in Baghdad last month (Office of the Iraqi Prime Minister).
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Al-Maliki Gears Up for Pivotal Battle in Iraq’s Provincial Council Elections

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani alongside Nouri al-Maliki during a religious occasion in Baghdad last month (Office of the Iraqi Prime Minister).
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani alongside Nouri al-Maliki during a religious occasion in Baghdad last month (Office of the Iraqi Prime Minister).

Indicators from within the coalition led by former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki suggest that he is poised to engage in a pivotal battle in this year's end-of-year elections for the provincial councils.

His objective is to secure five governors in central and southern Iraq. Additionally, he plans to capture the Shiite voters’ support in Baghdad, which is anticipated to be a fiercely contested electoral battleground, as described by members of the State of Law Coalition.

For months, al-Maliki’s coalition has set two goals concerning provincial council elections.

Firstly, they adamantly oppose any postponement of the scheduled December deadline.

Secondly, they are shutting the door on forming alliances with other Shiite factions in Iraq’s Coordination Framework.

The former premier is inclined to win council seats “without anyone's assistance,” according to a coalition insider.

Al-Maliki has previously affirmed that the local elections will take place as planned without any delays. He has called upon his supporters to be prepared and actively engage in selecting their representatives for the provincial councils.

A leader within al-Maliki’s coalition, who requested anonymity, revealed to Asharq Al-Awsat that the former prime minister is determined to expand his influence within the provinces.

His strategy encompasses winning around 40% of the Iraqi Parliament’s over 450 seats, in addition to securing the position of governor in five cities without any assistance from allies.

Sources with knowledge of the matter claim that al-Maliki is one of the most enthusiastic proponents of the Sadrist movement’s absence from the competition. He views the provincial council elections as a golden opportunity not only to solidify his influence but also to fill the void left by Muqtada al-Sadr.

In the previous local elections of 2013, al-Maliki managed to secure approximately 120 seats and five governor positions. However, he lost them all when the provincial councils were dissolved in 2019 due to the Iraq protests.

It appears that the former Prime Minister is entirely preoccupied with electoral calculations in areas where the Sadrist movement holds sway, especially in the central and southern regions of the country.

He believes that the “central battle” will unfold in the capital city, Baghdad, where the competition among Shiite candidates for securing Shiite voters’ support is fiercest.



Half of Yemen’s Population Face Mounting Risks from Climate Change

Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
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Half of Yemen’s Population Face Mounting Risks from Climate Change

Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)
Al-Garehi Al-Gharbi camp in the Abs district of north-west Yemen. (Norwegian Refugee Council)

Already suffering from a prolonged conflict as a result of the Houthi coup against the legitimate authority, Yemen is facing mounting risks brought on by climate change, the World Bank warned on Thursday.
Many populations are facing threats from climate change, such as extreme heat, drought, and floods, the WB said in its newly released Yemen Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR).
Stephane Guimbert, World Bank Country Director for Egypt, Yemen and Djibouti said that Yemen is facing an unprecedented convergence of crises — conflict, climate change, and poverty.
He called for immediate and decisive action on climate resilience, a matter of survival for millions of Yemenis.
“By investing in water security, climate-smart agriculture, and renewable energy, Yemen can safeguard human capital, build resilience and lay the foundations for a path to sustainable recovery,” he said.
The WB report said half of Yemenis are already exposed to at least one climate hazard — extreme heat, drought, or flooding — with compounding effects on food insecurity and poverty.
These risks, it showed, are expected to intensify without immediate action and Yemen’s annual GDP could decline by an average of 3.9% by 2040 under pessimistic climate scenarios, largely due to decreased agricultural productivity and infrastructure damage.
Navigating Challenges
Despite these challenges, the CCDR identifies strategic opportunities to strengthen resilience, improve food and water security, and unlock sustainable growth, the WB report noted.
For example, it said, targeted investments in water storage and groundwater management, coupled with adaptive agriculture techniques could lead to productivity gains of up to 13.5% in crop production under optimistic climate scenarios for the period of 2041 to 2050.
The report also spoke about risks to the fisheries sector, considered as a critical source of livelihood for many Yemenis.
Its projections indicate a potential decline of up to 23% in fish stocks due to rising sea temperatures and altered marine ecosystems.

The WB report also said that climate change exacerbates existing health challenges in Yemen, leading to increased healthcare costs and strain on already fragile health systems.
“It is projected that climate-related health issues could cost the country over $5 billion in excess health costs by 2050,” it noted.
“Addressing these challenges requires integrating climate resilience into public health planning, with a focus on vulnerable groups such as women and children.”
Concerning infrastructure, the report said urban areas and critical infrastructure are especially vulnerable, and without adaptation measures, economic shocks will disproportionately affect already fragile communities.
As for the private sector, it has a critical role to play in addressing Yemen’s pressing development challenges, said Khawaja Aftab Ahmed, IFC’s Regional Director for the Middle East.
“Harnessing its potential through innovative financing mechanisms and guarantee instruments and creating a conducive investment climate can help mobilize the climate-focused funding the country urgently needs to build a greener and more resilient future,” he said.
The WB report also said that Yemen also has immense potential for renewable energy, which could serve as a key component of its climate response and recovery.
It showed that harnessing renewable energy resources not only offers a pathway to reduce reliance on fossil fuels but also enables the creation of a more resilient power infrastructure.
“This will be essential in supporting vital services such as healthcare, water supply, and food distribution, particularly in conflict-affected areas,” it said.
Global Coordination
The World Bank highlighted the significant commitments and coordination from the international community to support Yemen in coping with climate shocks and building broader resilience.
It said securing sustainable peace will be required to unlock the financing and take the action needed to build long-term resilience to climate change.
The CCDR then underscored the importance of flexible, risk-informed decision-making to adapt climate actions to Yemen's uncertain political landscape.
Under a “Peace and Prosperity” scenario, it said, a higher level of adaptation can be implemented, yielding greater economic and social benefits.
Yemeni Minister of Water and Environment, Tawfiq Al-Sharjabi, stressed the importance of integrating climate action into development strategies and adapting to climate fluctuations.
The minister was speaking at a special session to discuss the WB report on the sidelines of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) held in Baku, Azerbaijan.
He said the report represents a significant contribution for Yemen in addressing climate change and will facilitate access to various climate financing options amid the structural and technical fragility faced by institutions due to the war.
The report, Al-Sharjabi added, aligns closely with Yemen's urgent priorities, particularly in the areas of water and food security, enhancing livelihoods, and promoting area-based climate adaptation approaches.