Aid Groups Sound Alarm in Libya as Hopes Dwindle for Survivors

General view of flood water covering the area as a powerful storm and heavy rainfall hit Al-Mukhaili, Libya September 11, 2023, in this handout picture. (Libya Al-Hadath/Handout via Reuters)
General view of flood water covering the area as a powerful storm and heavy rainfall hit Al-Mukhaili, Libya September 11, 2023, in this handout picture. (Libya Al-Hadath/Handout via Reuters)
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Aid Groups Sound Alarm in Libya as Hopes Dwindle for Survivors

General view of flood water covering the area as a powerful storm and heavy rainfall hit Al-Mukhaili, Libya September 11, 2023, in this handout picture. (Libya Al-Hadath/Handout via Reuters)
General view of flood water covering the area as a powerful storm and heavy rainfall hit Al-Mukhaili, Libya September 11, 2023, in this handout picture. (Libya Al-Hadath/Handout via Reuters)

Aid groups have warned of growing risk posed by the spread of disease that could compound the humanitarian crisis in Libya, as hopes of finding more survivors fade days after deadly flooding.

Sunday's flood submerged the port city of Derna, washing thousands of people and homes out to sea after two upstream dams burst under the pressure of torrential rains triggered by the hurricane-strength storm.

Conflicting death tolls have been reported, with officials in the east of the divided country giving different estimates, and one speaking of at least 3,840 dead.

Aid organizations like Islamic Relief and Doctors Without Borders (MSF) have warned that the upcoming period could see the spread of disease as well as grave difficulties in delivering aid to those most in need, according to AFP.

Islamic Relief warned of a "second humanitarian crisis" after the flood, pointing to the "growing risk of water-borne diseases and shortages of food, shelter and medicine".

"Thousands of people don't have anywhere to sleep and don't have food," said Salah Aboulgasem, the organization's deputy director of partner development.

"In conditions like this, diseases can quickly spread as water systems are contaminated," he added. "The city smells like death. Almost everyone has lost someone they know."

MSF meanwhile said it was deploying teams to the east to assess water and sanitation.

"With this type of event we can really worry about water-related disease," said Manoelle Carton, MSF's medical coordinator in Derna, who described efforts to coordinate aid as "chaotic".

But the Red Cross and the World Health Organization pointed out that contrary to widespread belief, the bodies of victims of natural disasters rarely pose a health threat.

An AFP journalist in Derna said central neighbourhoods on either side of the river, which normally dries up at this time of year, looked as if a steam roller had passed through, uprooting trees and buildings and hurling vehicles onto the port's breakwaters.

Stephanie Williams, a US diplomat and former UN envoy to Libya, urged global mobilization to coordinate aid efforts in the wake of the flood in a social media post.

She warned of the "predilection of Libya's predatory ruling class to use the pretext of 'sovereignty' and 'national ownership' to steer such a process on their own and in a self-interested manner".

In a Friday night news conference, Ahmed al-Mesmari, the spokesman for east-based military strongman Khalifa Haftar pointed to "enormous needs for reconstruction".

The United Nations launched an appeal for more than $71 million to assist hundreds of thousands in need and warned the "extent of the problem" remains unclear.

"We don't know the extent of the problem," UN aid chief Martin Griffiths said Friday in Geneva, as he called for coordination between Libya's two rival administrations -- the UN-backed, internationally recognized government in Tripoli, and one based in the disaster-hit east.

Teams from the Libyan Red Crescent are "still searching for possible survivors and clearing bodies from the rubble in the most damaged areas" of Derna, its spokesman Tawfik Shoukri told AFP.

Other teams were trying to deliver much-needed aid to families in the eastern part of the city, which had been spared the worst of the flooding but was cut off by road, he added.

He pointed to the "very high" level of destruction in the city, but refused to give figures for the number of victims.

While most fear the death toll will be much higher, Tamer Ramadan of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said there was still hope of finding survivors but also declined to give a figure.

The International Organization for Migration meanwhile said "over 38,640" people had been left homeless in eastern Libya, 30,000 of them in Derna alone.



Will Lebanon Finally Elect a President after a 2-year Vacuum?

A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
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Will Lebanon Finally Elect a President after a 2-year Vacuum?

A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir
A ballot box is displayed inside the parliament building, a day ahead of Lebanon's parliament's attempt to elect a new head of state in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, January 8, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Lebanon's parliament is set to convene Thursday to attempt to elect a head of state for the 13th time during a presidential vacuum that's lasted over two years. This time, analysts said, they might succeed.
The session comes weeks after a tenuous ceasefire agreement halted a 14-month conflict between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and as Lebanon's leaders seek international assistance for reconstruction, The Associated Press said.
The primary contenders for the presidency include the Lebanese army's commander, Joseph Aoun, who is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the United States and Saudi Arabia. The candidate previously supported by Hezbollah, Suleiman Franjieh, on Wednesday announced he was pulling out of the race and endorsed Aoun.
The Lebanese military has a key role in sustaining the ceasefire, as its forces are tasked with ensuring that Hezbollah pulls its fighters and weapons out of southern Lebanon.
Here's why the vacuum has dragged on for so long and what to expect Thursday:
Why has it taken so long to elect a president? Lebanon's fractious sectarian power-sharing system is prone to deadlock, both for political and procedural reasons. The small, crisis-battered Mediterranean country has been through several extended presidential vacancies, with the longest lasting nearly 2 1/2 years between May 2014 and October 2016. It ended when former President Michel Aoun was elected.
Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement party was at the time the main Christian ally of the Shiite political party and Hezbollah, although their alliance has since fractured.
After Aoun's term ended in October 2022, Hezbollah backed Franjieh, leader of the Marada Movement, a political party with a strong influence in northern Lebanon. Frangieh also had close ties with former Syrian president Bashar Assad.
While Joseph Aoun — no relation to the former president — never officially announced his candidacy, he was widely understood to be the main rival to Franjieh. Meanwhile, political factions opposed to Hezbollah put forward a series of candidates.
The last presidential vote in parliament in June 2023 broke down after the bloc led by Hezbollah withdrew following the first round of voting, where Franjieh came in behind the opposition candidate, Jihad Azour. The withdrawal broke the quorum in the 128-member house.
Michael Young, a senior editor at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said the current election “has taken a long time simply because parliament, reflecting the reality of the country, is very divided, and actually did not respect the constitutional provisions to hold electoral session open until a president was elected.”
The situation was exacerbated because parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, used parliamentary rules “more as an instrument of blockage than an instrument of consensus,” lifting sessions whenever he “did not want a majority to develop around the candidacies he did not support,” Young said.
Imad Salamey, a political science professor at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, noted that “Lebanon’s dependence on foreign support means external agreements often determine presidential outcomes.”
During the current impasse, a five-member committee consisting of the United States, France, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar has held a series of meetings aimed at negotiating an end to the presidential vacuum.
Who are the main contenders? — Army commander Joseph Aoun, 60, is widely seen as the frontrunner to become Lebanon’s next president, particularly since Franjieh's withdrawal.
Aoun was appointed to the current post in March 2017 and had been set to retire in January 2024, but his term was extended twice during the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
Aoun, who has kept a low profile and avoided media appearances, never formally announced his candidacy but is widely seen as the preferred candidate of the United States, which provides significant financial support to the Lebanese army.
Lebanon’s constitution technically bars a sitting army chief from becoming president. The ban has been waived before, but it means that Aoun faces additional procedural hurdles.
Under normal circumstances, a presidential candidate in Lebanon can be elected by a two-thirds majority in the first round of voting or by a simple majority in the second round if there is no winner in the first round. But because of the constitutional issues surrounding his election, Aoun would need a two-thirds majority even in the second round.
— Jihad Azour, who has been backed by factions opposed to Hezbollah, is a prominent economist who has served as the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund since 2017. As finance minister from 2005 to 2008, he led some reforms including modernizing the tax and customs systems.
— Elias al-Baysari is the acting head of Lebanon's General Security agency, which is responsible for border control and historically seen as close to Hezbollah. His career in national security began in 1986 when he joined the Lebanese army. His early roles included key positions within Beirut’s port security and the army’s intelligence division. In 2005, al-Baysari joined General Security. He also holds a doctorate in law.
What are the chances a president will be elected Thursday? The withdrawal of Franjieh likely means “the deal is done” and Aoun will likely be elected, Young said.
The dynamics have changed since the last failed parliamentary vote.
“Hezbollah is in a weaker position due to escalating tensions with Israel, challenges in Syria and domestic discontent,” Salamey said. “It now needs the protection of a functioning state to rebuild and attract international aid.”
According to Young, “Lebanon today is effectively under some sort of foreign trusteeship.”
Lebanon needs American support to “contain Israeli actions” and ensure that Israel withdraws its forces from southern Lebanon as stipulated in the ceasefire, he said, while Saudi Arabia is “the key to Gulf funding for Lebanon’s reconstruction, particularly of Shiite areas. Iran does not have the means to rebuild what was destroyed by Israel in the recent conflict.”