Round 4 of GERD Talks: What are the Possible Scenarios?

Egypt’s delegation during the Cairo GERD talks (Egyptian Ministry of Water)
Egypt’s delegation during the Cairo GERD talks (Egyptian Ministry of Water)
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Round 4 of GERD Talks: What are the Possible Scenarios?

Egypt’s delegation during the Cairo GERD talks (Egyptian Ministry of Water)
Egypt’s delegation during the Cairo GERD talks (Egyptian Ministry of Water)

A new round of negotiations concerning the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will begin next December between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan in Addis Ababa.

The talks aim to reach a “legal” agreement over operating the Ethiopian Dam following the third round of negotiations that ended in Cairo last Tuesday.

Experts considered the fourth round as the “last chance” to resolve the outstanding differences between the three countries.

The Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation announced that the meeting would be held in Addis Ababa to complete the negotiating process that began over the past two months and reach an agreement on the filling and operation rules.

It indicated that the Cairo meeting was based on talks between the three countries to accelerate the process of reaching an agreement following a meeting between leaders of Egypt and Ethiopia on July 13.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed agreed to initiate urgent negotiations to finalize an agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan on the filling of the GERD and the rules of its operations.

The two leaders said they would make all the necessary efforts to finalize the agreement in four months.

Last month, Ethiopia hosted another round of negotiations and witnessed accusations between Cairo and Addis Ababa of not achieving progress in the talks.

Professor of Geology and Water Resources at Cairo University Abbas Sharaki believes the next round of negotiations will be the fourth and probably the ‘last chance’ to reach an agreement.

Sharaki believes the three countries will be unable to reach common ground, noting that Egypt has been negotiating for 12 years but the Ethiopian position remains unchanged.

He told Asharq Al-Awsat that over four years, Ethiopia has stored 41 billion cubic meters of water, noting that the dam is set to keep 74 billion cubic meters.

He said if the related countries fail to reach an agreement, Ethiopia could store the remaining 23 billion cubic meters by next year, which would impact the downstream countries.

Egypt and Sudan demand a binding legal agreement regulating the filling and operating of the dam Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile.

The dam could reduce water supplies to the two countries and cause other environmental and economic damages.

Ethiopia defends its right to development and generates the electricity its people need.

Sharaki believes that the possible scenario after a failed fourth round would include an announcement by the relevant technical committees that negotiations “reached a dead end”. The political leadership would then discuss the matter to take necessary steps.

The professor suggested another scenario that could see the return of Egypt and Sudan to the Security Council to discuss the issue of the dam being a threat risking the two countries.



Sisi: Electricity Interconnection Projects with Saudi Arabia a Model for Regional Cooperation

Sisi met with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Minister of Electricity and Renewable Energy Mahmoud Esmat, and Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawy. (Egyptian Presidency)
Sisi met with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Minister of Electricity and Renewable Energy Mahmoud Esmat, and Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawy. (Egyptian Presidency)
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Sisi: Electricity Interconnection Projects with Saudi Arabia a Model for Regional Cooperation

Sisi met with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Minister of Electricity and Renewable Energy Mahmoud Esmat, and Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawy. (Egyptian Presidency)
Sisi met with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Minister of Electricity and Renewable Energy Mahmoud Esmat, and Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawy. (Egyptian Presidency)

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi affirmed that the electrical interconnection project with Saudi Arabia represents a model of regional energy cooperation and a benchmark for future similar ventures in electrical connectivity, directing close monitoring of all project details.
Sisi made these remarks during a meeting with Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Minister of Electricity and Renewable Energy Mahmoud Esmat, and Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Karim Badawy.
According to a statement by the Egyptian presidency on Sunday, the discussion reviewed the status of electrical interconnection projects between Egypt and Saudi Arabia, emphasizing their importance in enhancing grid efficiency and stability while optimizing the use of generation capacity during peak demand periods.
Cairo and Riyadh signed an agreement in 2012 to establish the electrical interconnection project at a cost of $1.8 billion, with Egypt contributing $600 million (1 USD = 49.65 EGP in local banks). In a government meeting in mid-October, Madbouly announced that the interconnection line is expected to become operational in May or June of next year, with an initial capacity of 1,500 megawatts.
This initiative is the first of its kind to enable high-voltage direct current (HVDC) power exchange in the Middle East and North Africa region. It connects Badr City in Egypt to Medina via Tabuk in Saudi Arabia. Late last month, Madbouly highlighted that the project, set to produce 3,000 megawatts in two phases, is a landmark achievement for Egypt’s energy sector.
Presidential spokesperson Mohamed al-Shenawy stated that the meeting also highlighted the progress on the Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant. The project is seen as vital to Egypt’s comprehensive development strategy, which aims to diversify energy sources through renewable and alternative means, improving service delivery to citizens.
Located in northern Egypt, the Dabaa plant will consist of four nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of 4,800 megawatts (1,200 megawatts per reactor). The first reactor is expected to be operational by 2028, with the others coming online sequentially. The Egyptian government has pledged to fulfill its commitments to ensure the project meets its scheduled timeline.
The president also directed the government to intensify efforts to attract investments in the energy sector, develop the management of the national gas grid, and ensure stable energy supplies for both electricity and industrial sectors. Furthermore, he urged rapid progress on renewable energy projects to diversify energy sources, expand grid capacity, and modernize the network using advanced technologies to enhance efficiency and reduce losses.