RSF Commander Informs UN Sec-Gen of Plans to End War in Sudan

Commander of the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan Lt-Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (AP)
Commander of the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan Lt-Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (AP)
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RSF Commander Informs UN Sec-Gen of Plans to End War in Sudan

Commander of the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan Lt-Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (AP)
Commander of the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan Lt-Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (AP)

The Commander of the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan Lt-Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti" announced on Friday that he discussed with UN's Secretary-General Antonio Guterres the situation in Sudan.
Hemedti said on his X account that he briefed the Secretary-General on the current developments, emphasizing the severe violations committed by Burhan's coup militia against innocent civilians.
He explained that the violations include aerial bombings, killings, ethnically motivated arrests, preventing humanitarian organizations from delivering aid to civilians and imposing restrictions on aid workers.
The RSF commander outlined his strategy to end hostilities and initiate negotiations that address the root causes of the crisis, leading to the reconstruction of the Sudanese state on new, equitable foundations that achieve security, stability, and lasting comprehensive peace.
He welcomed the appointment of Ramtane Lamamra as the UN Sec-Gen Special Envoy in Sudan, reiterating total commitment to cooperating with him and all UN agencies to address the humanitarian situation civilians face in the areas under the RSF control.
- IGAD summit
Meanwhile, Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) President Ismail Omar Guelleh of Djibouti has scheduled an urgent summit in Uganda on January 18 to address the Sudanese situation and the Ethiopia-Somalia dispute.
It follows an unsuccessful attempt at the 41st IGAD summit last December to mediate between Hemedti and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader Abdulfattah al-Burhan.
Lt-Gen Yasser al-Atta Assistant Commander-in-Chief of the Army has cautioned against the political backers of the RSF, whom he referred to as Janjaweed, citing their potential to instigate a civil conflict.
He reassured officers at the Wadi Seidna airbase of the army's inclusive composition, including all tribes of Sudan, and dismissed fears of a civil war.
- Dozens of dead and wounded
Furthermore, the military operations between the SAF and RSF led to the death of 33 in Khartoum.
Clashes intensified between the warring parties over the past few days despite international pressure to return to the negotiating platform.
Emergency Lawyers, a nonprofit volunteer human rights group, reported on its X account that the army's artillery shelling in the Soba area killed 23 civilians and injured many others.
In the west, army aircraft targeted several sites in Nyala, killing dozens and injuring many civilians. The RSF has been in control of the city since October.
- Wad Madani and Gedaref
In eastern Sudan, the army announced that it had repelled an RSF attack on Umm al-Qura in an attempt to expand its control towards Gedaref state. Wad Madani also witnessed fierce clashes between the two sides.
Citizens told Asharq Al-Awsat that they saw clouds of smoke near the First Infantry Division headquarters and the Enqaz neighborhood near the Hantoub Bridge.
They indicated that the two sides exchanged heavy shelling, and citizens were unable to leave their homes.
Members of the famous "resistance committees" confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that there were deaths and injuries among civilians, but they were unable to determine them due to the ongoing clashes.
- The National Umma Party and Dilling

In addition, the National Umma Party denounced the violence in Dilling, south Kordofan state, between the military parties and the tribes.
It warned that it would lead to sedition and ignite a war between the components that have coexisted for decades.
The party announced in a bulletin that the Dilling events confirmed the dangerous effects of the war, threatening social peace and coexistence in the region.
It called on the Nuba and Hawazma Arab residents to exercise restraint and called on the army and the RSF to listen "to the voice of reason and wisdom" to end the war.
It urged the parties not to involve tribes and civilians in their military conflict and appealed to the Sudan People's Liberation Movement led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu to help contain the conflict and prevent the plan from sowing tribal strife in the Dilling region.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”