Blinken: Middle East Situation Most Dangerous ‘Since at Least 1973’

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington. (AFP)
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington. (AFP)
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Blinken: Middle East Situation Most Dangerous ‘Since at Least 1973’

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington. (AFP)
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington. (AFP)

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to embark on his sixth visit to Israel next Saturday since the beginning of the Gaza war. The visit follows Blinken's recent cautionary statement, where he highlighted the "incredibly volatile time" in the Middle East, drawing historical parallels to 1973.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration is actively weighing responses to a recent attack by pro-Iran militias against American soldiers.

The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Blinken's visit comes amid negotiations for a new deal aimed at securing the release of hostages held by Hamas and following agreements reached at the Paris meeting.

Notable participants at the Paris meeting included CIA chief William Burns, head of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency David Barnea, head of the Egyptian Intelligence Service Abbas Kamel, and Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani.

Blinken's remarks on the recent attack on US military personnel were made during a joint press conference with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Washington.

The attack, claimed by the Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah and executed with an Iranian-manufactured "Shahed" drone, targeted a dormitory in Tower 22, a military logistical base located in the far northeast of Jordan. The assault resulted in three soldiers losing their lives and 34 injuries.

“From the outset, we have been clear in warning that anyone looking to take advantage of conflict in the Middle East and try to expand it: Don’t do it,” said Blinken. “And the President has been crystal clear: We will respond decisively to any aggression.”

He added that the US is still working on “putting a durable end to the cycle of violence that we’ve seen in the region for generation after generation,” highlighting that the opportunity exists to achieve it: “an integrated Israel with relations with all of its neighbors, security commitments, assurances that it needs to make sure that it can move forward in peace and security; a Palestinian Authority that’s reformed, and a clear pathway to a Palestinian state.”

That vision and its realization can “isolate the small number of actors who don’t want to get there, who have a very different vision for what the future is – notably Iran.”

Stoltenberg accused Iran of destabilizing the region and backing the Houthis attacks on the vessels in the Red Sea.

Volatile time

“I think it’s very important to note that this is an incredibly volatile time in the Middle East,” Blinken said. “I would argue that we’ve not seen a situation as dangerous as the one we’re facing now across the region since at least 1973, and arguably even before that.”

“We’ve taken action, and significant action, to deter groups, to degrade their capabilities in Iraq, in Syria, in Yemen,” he continued.

Amid concerns the violence could spark a wider regional conflict, Blinken noted the Biden administration is looking to prevent “broader escalation.”

“We want to prevent this conflict from spreading. So, we are intent on doing both ... that is, standing up for our people when they’re attacked while at the same time working every single day to prevent the conflict from growing and spreading,” he added.

Blinken noted the US “will respond strongly” and that the “response could be multileveled, come in stages, and be sustained over time.”

UNRWA

Commenting on the recent crisis over the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) that provide aid to Palestinian refugees, Blinken said the accusations were “troubling,” calling on the agency to investigate and potentially hold people accountable if wrongdoing is found.

Many key donors, including the United States and Germany, suspended funding to UNRWA after an Israeli detailed allegations that 12 of its employees were involved in the Oct. 7 cross-border raid that triggered Israel’s war against Hamas.

Blinken noted: “The UNWRA has played and continues to play an absolutely indispensable role in trying to make sure that men, women, and children who so desperately need assistance in Gaza actually get it. And no one else can play the role that UNRWA's been playing. Certainly not in the -- in the near term.”

Hostages

Blinken met with Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Washington.

The leaders discussed the importance of facilitating the immediate release of all hostages held by Hamas.

“Blinken additionally expressed gratitude for Qatar’s indispensable mediation efforts,” said State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller. “They agreed to continue close coordination to provide increased humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza and to urge the protection of civilians consistent with humanitarian law.”

“Secretary Blinken underscored the US commitment to a more peaceful, integrated, and prosperous Middle East region with security for Israel and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.”

Miller added that they also discussed “concerns with the Houthi threat to navigational rights and freedoms in the Red Sea.”

In the wake of the recent killing of American soldiers, Al Thani expressed his hope that the forthcoming response from Washington would not jeopardize the progress achieved in ongoing talks aimed at securing the release of hostages.

“I hope that nothing will hinder the efforts we are making or spoil the process,” he stated.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”